In 2021, Peloton has seen its market cap fall from $50B to $17B. The “iPad on a bike” joke is trending but it’s a bit unfair.
Peloton’s design smartly uses many psychological hacks to get people hooked on exercise (and it's worth learning from).
Here are 9 of them🧵
1/ The psychological challenge with fitness is called “hyperbolic discounting”: we value immediate though smaller rewards more than long-term larger rewards.
The pain of diet or exercise NOW isn’t worth the long-term benefit of “being in shape”.
2/ Peloton's goal is to get you on -- and hooked by -- its bike. The key to this is "the habit loop": a neurological phenomenon that governs any habit (good or bad).
It has 3 parts:
1⃣CUE: Trigger craving
2⃣ROUTINE: Action to get reward
3⃣REWARD: Satisfaction of craving
3/ Starting Peloton's habit loop
Apple is an inspiration for Peloton' bike, which has an attractive and portable design.
As the memes will tell you, owners are happy to showcase it in high-profile areas of the home. This is a convenient cue to kick off the exercise habit loop.
4/ More exposure = more liking
There's another benefit to having Pelotons in highly visible places:
The "mere exposure effect", a psychological phenomenon whereby people develop a preference for things just based on how often they see it (this happens a lot to celebrities).
5/ Shoes + Clips
At-home fitness is easier to get into, but also easier to get *out* of.
Peloton bike shoes are both a cue and a commitment to get a workout done. Once you clip in, you are primed for a ride. (Comparatively, ending your at-home pushup "workout" is much easier)
6/ High price = more commitment
The Peloton is pricey: starts at $1.5k ($40/month digital sub). Psychologically, the high cost is very effective.
Per the "sunk cost-fallacy", people spend more time and money on something if they've already made an investment (eg. ride more).
7/ Power of scheduling
Peloton offers 1000s of recorded/live classes, some as short as 10-15 min (a small minimum time commitment removes friction).
Scheduling also takes away the decision-making friction when its workout time, helping to kick off the habit loop.
In addition to the exercise dopamine, these near-term rewards are crucial for habit formation and help bypass "hyperbolic discounting".
9/ Social fitness
Peloton has a 6m-person member base, meaning you prob have a friend to ride with or compete against.
The social tie makes the product stickier.
There are countless Peloton online communities that swap tips and make absurd posts like this from an FB group:
10/ Instructor motivation
Peloton has 45 instructors, for any mood you feel like riding. While it's digital guidance, the up-close screen makes it more intimate than you might get at the back of a Soul Cycle.
(With 10k+ riders in some classes, no wonder instructors are famous)
11/ The Shoutout
The most explicit psychological hack is the instructor calling out names during the rides.
People *love* hearing their own name.
The genius move: instructors name-dropping people on milestone rides (50, 100, 250, 500), which motivates you to keep coming back.
12/ Obviously, none of these hacks saved Peloton from getting clapped last week. Still worth studying, though.
If you enjoyed that, I write threads on business and tech 1-2x a week.
Matt Damon and Ben Affleck on Rogan taking about how Netflix has changed filmmaking.
A major considerations is dealing with distracted viewers. To keep them tuned in, “you re-iterate the plot 3-4x in the dialogue because people are on their phones.”
Then, in action films, you change the ordering of climatic fights.
In traditional action films, you’d have “three set pieces” in every act (I, II, III) and each would “ramp up” (spend the big money on third set piece).
But streaming has to hook viewers within 5 minute, so the incentive is to put a major battle or action sequence much earlier.
Also, the directors have less incentive to make a film look great because so many people watch on laptops and phones.
They do say that streaming allows for more bets on risky projects since the theatre economics are geared towards IP, sequels and super-heroes.
Example: an independent film with a $25m budget would spend $25m on marketing (1:1 ratio). But since it splits box office with the theatre, the film needs to make $100m (1/2 of which is $50m) just to break even.
They’re realistic about the state of film and call it a supply-demand issue. If the demand is for at-home viewing (eg. Netflix 300m+ subs), then filmmaking approach will change to feed the algo.
When there’s demand for theatre, Damon will go team up with Christopher Nolan to make “The Odyssey”.
A similar dynamic is happening to streaming TV shows. The incentives for story arc, dialogue and character types warped thr medium.
The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors:
▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped).
▫️Rest of players called “Square”.
▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%.
▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%.
▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%.
▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums.
▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge.
▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk
▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me).
▫️How sportsbook profile players:
> Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play)
> Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models)
> E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds)
> Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets)
▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game).
▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays).
▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often).
▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.”
▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.”
▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable).
▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%).
▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread.
▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet.
▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers.
▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings.
On a related note, I wrote on how slot machines make $10B+ a year in Las Vegas (~70% of all casino gaming revenue).
The history, psychology and design of the device…which went from a throwaway game to the industry’s “cash cow” and “gambling’s crack cocaine.”readtrung.com/p/the-ludicrou…
Satya Nadella on why Microsoft Excel has been so durable after 40 years:
> the power of lists and tables
> the malleability of the software (“a blinking canvas”)
> spreadsheet software is Turing complete (“I can make it do everything”)
> it’s the world’s most approachable programming environment (“you get into it without even thinking your programming”)
The invention of bánh mì is a combination of climate, trade and urban layout of Saigon in late-19th century designed by French colonist.
When the French captured the area in 1859, most economic activity in the region took place along the Saigon river.
The population built makeshift homes tightly bundled by the river banks. Outgrowth from this eventually lead to narrow alleyways between many buildings that is trademark of the city (the Khmer named the region Prey Nokor then French renamed it Saigon and then it was renamed to Ho Chi Minh City in 1976 after end of Vietnam War).
Over decades, the French created European street grids and built wide Paris-type boulevards in the city to funnel commerce to larger markets (also make the city easier to administer).
It was at these markets that French baguettes were introduced and traded.
Bánh mì bread is known for being flaky and crispy on the outside while fluffier on inside (so god damn good).
Two features of Saigon helped create this texture:
▫️Climate: The heat and humidity in Southeast Asia leads dough to ferment faster, which creates air pockets in bread (light and fluffy).
▫️Ingredient: Wide availability of rice meant locals added rice flour to wheat flour imports (which were quite expensive). Rice flour is more resistant to moisture and creates a drier, crispier crust.
Fast forward to the 1930s: the French-designed street layout is largely complete. Now, the city centre has wide boulevards intersected by countless narrow alleyways.
The design was ideal for street vendor carts. These businesses were inspired by shophosue of colonial architecture to sell all types of goods as chaotic traffic rushed by.
Vietnam has some of the most slapping rice and soup dishes, but many people on the move in the mornings wanted something more portable and edible by hand.
Bánh mì was traditionally upper class fare but it met the need for on-the-go food.
Just fill the bread with some Vietnamese ingredients (braised pork, pickled vegetable, Vietnamese coriander, chilies) along with French goodies (pate).
Pair it with cà phê sữa đá (aka coffee with condensed milk aka caffeinated crack) and you’re laughing.
Haven’t lived in Saigon for 10+ years but ate a banh mi every other day when I did.
While there, I also sold a comedy script to Fox (pitch: “The Fugitive meets Harold & Kumar set in Southeast Asia”).