Trung Phan Profile picture
Nov 7, 2021 18 tweets 9 min read Read on X
In 2021, Peloton has seen its market cap fall from $50B to $17B. The “iPad on a bike” joke is trending but it’s a bit unfair.

Peloton’s design smartly uses many psychological hacks to get people hooked on exercise (and it's worth learning from).

Here are 9 of them🧵
1/ The psychological challenge with fitness is called “hyperbolic discounting”: we value immediate though smaller rewards more than long-term larger rewards.

The pain of diet or exercise NOW isn’t worth the long-term benefit of “being in shape”.
2/ Peloton's goal is to get you on -- and hooked by -- its bike. The key to this is "the habit loop": a neurological phenomenon that governs any habit (good or bad).

It has 3 parts:

1⃣CUE: Trigger craving
2⃣ROUTINE: Action to get reward
3⃣REWARD: Satisfaction of craving
3/ Starting Peloton's habit loop

Apple is an inspiration for Peloton' bike, which has an attractive and portable design.

As the memes will tell you, owners are happy to showcase it in high-profile areas of the home. This is a convenient cue to kick off the exercise habit loop.
4/ More exposure = more liking

There's another benefit to having Pelotons in highly visible places:

The "mere exposure effect", a psychological phenomenon whereby people develop a preference for things just based on how often they see it (this happens a lot to celebrities).
5/ Shoes + Clips

At-home fitness is easier to get into, but also easier to get *out* of.

Peloton bike shoes are both a cue and a commitment to get a workout done. Once you clip in, you are primed for a ride. (Comparatively, ending your at-home pushup "workout" is much easier)
6/ High price = more commitment

The Peloton is pricey: starts at $1.5k ($40/month digital sub). Psychologically, the high cost is very effective.

Per the "sunk cost-fallacy", people spend more time and money on something if they've already made an investment (eg. ride more).
7/ Power of scheduling

Peloton offers 1000s of recorded/live classes, some as short as 10-15 min (a small minimum time commitment removes friction).

Scheduling also takes away the decision-making friction when its workout time, helping to kick off the habit loop.
8/ Gamified routine

Once on the bike, everything is gamified:

◻️Key metrics (output, speed)
◻️Leaderboards
◻️Awards, badges, achievements

In addition to the exercise dopamine, these near-term rewards are crucial for habit formation and help bypass "hyperbolic discounting".
9/ Social fitness

Peloton has a 6m-person member base, meaning you prob have a friend to ride with or compete against.

The social tie makes the product stickier.

There are countless Peloton online communities that swap tips and make absurd posts like this from an FB group:
10/ Instructor motivation

Peloton has 45 instructors, for any mood you feel like riding. While it's digital guidance, the up-close screen makes it more intimate than you might get at the back of a Soul Cycle.

(With 10k+ riders in some classes, no wonder instructors are famous)
11/ The Shoutout

The most explicit psychological hack is the instructor calling out names during the rides.

People *love* hearing their own name.

The genius move: instructors name-dropping people on milestone rides (50, 100, 250, 500), which motivates you to keep coming back.
12/ Obviously, none of these hacks saved Peloton from getting clapped last week. Still worth studying, though.

If you enjoyed that, I write threads on business and tech 1-2x a week.

Follow @TrungTPhan to get them in your feed.
13/ You may enjoy this other "psychological" study:
14/ Also, I do interesting breakdowns like this once a week -- with lots of dumb jokes -- on the Not Investment Advice (NIA) podcast.

Check It: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/not…
16/ Had to write this thread after this tweet
17/ Lastly, no Peloton thread is complete without a reference to the greatest Peloton thread ever:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trung Phan

Trung Phan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrungTPhan

Feb 4
Norway discovered off-shore oil in 1969. It launched its sovereign wealth fund with $300m in 1996.

It’s since grown 6,000x to $1.8T or $327,000 per Norwegian (5.5m people).

The fund owns 1.5% of all global equities but, most impressively, had a UX designer put a real-time fund value tracker on its website landing page.
Norway’s SWF roughly is 65% equity, 25% bond, 10% real estate/infra (all global).

Unsurprisingly, its largest holding is Apple ($47B, or 1.4% of the entire company).

On a related note, here is my deep dive podcast on Steve Jobs and making of the iPhone: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/caf…
Norway spared no expense on its SWF website. Look at that carousel!
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
never forget that episode of “Nathan For You” when he launched a fire detector product and tried to avoid import tariffs by turning it into a music device
One company that has been very good at navigating international food tariffs/regulations is Trader Joe’s. Built its dairy and wine businesses by finding workarounds.

I explain in this deep dive podcast on Trader Joe’s business history and strategy: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/caf…
Nathan’s “Blues” Smoke Detector Instrument lololol:

— “concert quality”
— “pre-tuned to F-sharp”
— “9 battery lets you jam for hours” Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 29
wow, found a rare interview of a DeepSeek co-founder talking about his first AI startup exit a few years ago
Jian Yang is my 2nd fave Asian founder who created a food-related product.

The 1st is David Tran, who built Sriracha (great on hot dogs) into a $1B brand using $20k of gold bars he snuck out of Vietnam in milk cans.

I tell the full story in this podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/caf…
sold for $15m, what’s your excuse anon? Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Bookmarked a bunch of great David Lynch posts in past 24 hours (RIP to a legend):

1/ Martin Scorsese Tribute Image
Read 23 tweets
Sep 19, 2024
PayPal’s bland logo redesign was inevitable
Image
If you are the person that did the un-aligned letters for the previous eBay logo, please contact the research app team. We are huge fans of how un-aligned the “e” is with the “y”.Bearly.AI
This article offers up reasons for popularity of simple font logos (mostly Sans Serif):

— Easier to standardize ads across mediums
— Improves readability (especially on mobile)
— The “brand” matters more than the logo velvetshark.com/why-do-brands-…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 1, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway board member Chris Davis once asked Charlie Munger why Costco didn’t drop the membership card.

Let anyone shop and raise prices by 2% (still great value), thus making up for lost membership fees (and more).

Munger said the card is important filter:

▫️“Think about who you’re keeping out [with a membership card]. Think about the cohort that won’t give you their license and their ID and get their picture taken.

Or they aren’t organized enough to do it, or they can’t do the math to realize [the value]…that cohort will have a 100% of your shoplifters and a 100% of your thieves. Now, it’ll also have most of your small tickets.

And that cohort relative to the US population will probably be shrinking as a % of GDP relative to the people that can do the math [on Costco’s value].”▫️

I have a membership but have been guffing on the math for a few years tbh. They keep telling me to upgrade from Gold to Business but I’m too lazy (even if the 2-3% Cash Back on Business pays back after a few trips).

This is a long way of saying Costco’s membership price hike effective today — its first in 7 years — is annoying but when I decide to do the math in a few months, it’ll be worth it.

***

Chris Davis’ remarks from this episode of The Knowledge Project: open.spotify.com/episode/6fJYHF…Image
Anyway, here is something I wrote about Costco’s $9B+ clothing business my affinity for Kirkland-branded socks and Puma gym shirts. readtrung.com/p/costcos-9b-c…
Two notes:

▫️Meant “Executive” (not “Business”) membership
▫️Chris Davis was doing a pure thought experiment. Costco membership obvi high margin (on~$5B a year) and accounts for majority of Costco profits. Retail margin is tiny on ~$230B of annual sales (Costco would need like another $150B+ from letting anyone shop to make up membership profits)Image
Image
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(