Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 9, 2021 30 tweets 16 min read Read on X
The issues that @fortisanalysis founder, @man_integrated spoke about recently piece on why the USA may never recover from the current supply chain disruptions have a historical analog in WW2 military supply chains.

That will be this thread's subject
1/
Intercontinental logistics is never easy. Even more so when there is a thinking enemy of the other side shooting holes in them.

Yet for all that, the US never got the single most important piece right the clearing cargo through ports & beaches.

See the WW2 D-Day example.
2/ ImageImage
In the Pacific theaters, it was far worse.

The tyranny of distance, no/poor infrastructure, bureaucracy, and inter-service politics were bigger foes than the Japanese.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
It also didn't help that the San Francisco Port of Embarkation was the most dysfunctional of WW2.

In addition to a 100 times increase in size & people, it calved off POE in Los Angeles, Seattle Portland, & Prince Rupert.

4/
nps.gov/articles/000/t… ImageImageImage
Imagine trying to inventory and mark for the proper consignee, & move a mess like this.

Which was actually a good day for the San Francisco POE.

5/ Image
Per the NPS San Fran POE link:

"The port and its subsidiary, served by three transcontinental railroads, handled more than 350,000 freight car loads, and employed 30,000 military and civilian employees, not counting the longshoremen who loaded and unloaded cars and ships."

6/ ImageImageImage
Per this link:

"In 1939, the SFPE employed 831 military and civilian personnel. They shipped 48,000 tons of cargo that year. By the end of WW2, in 1945, the SFPE employed more than 30,000 people.

7/
hmdb.org/m.asp?m=70000 Image
...They shipped more than 23 million tons of cargo and 1.65 million soldiers on 4,000 freighters & 800 troopships."

Not mentioned in either link is that the War Dept. fired three San Fran POE directors during WW2.
8/ Image
The last firing happened shortly before the end of WW2, because something needed to be done to logistically support the planned Operation Downfall invasions of the Japanese home islands.

It was the illusion of "doing something."

9/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Great Pacific Supply Chain Collapse" going into Downfall was years in the making. And It was well mapped by a War Dept. investigator in Sept-Oct 1944.

See:

Col. Crosby's report on trip to Pacific Ocean Area and Southeast Pacific Area.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…

10/
Col. Crosby put in the miles and time to investigate everything involved the the Pacific War supply chain. Every major port operation in Adm. Nimitz's & General Macarthur's theater's were investigated & photographed.
11/ Image
In the time before ISO containers & container ships, good warehousing, rail & port operations for break bulk freighters required nets, pallets, roller conveyors, forklifts, cranes and military stevedores.

Who were disproportionately African-American in the Jim Crow era.
12/ Image
The problem that Crosby found in his travels was the lack of skills/supplies/infrastructure to effectively use pallets, roller conveyors, & forklifts.

Material handling equipment (MHE), then or now, required skilled manpower, spare parts & proper infrastructure to use.
13/ ImageImageImageImage
In his visit to Oro Bay rear in MacArthur's theater, Crosby found that despite having fork lifts, pallets & leadership deeply committed to mechanization to save manpower. It simply wasn't happening.

14/ ImageImageImageImage
The meeting tonnage metrics now beat efficient for the future.

Spoilage or theft of offloaded tonnage was not measured.

It was the "Department of Someone Else's Problem."

15/ ImageImageImageImage
Different bases didn't share overages of pallets forklifts with bases lacking them because there was no effective communications nor incentives to do so.

[The parallels with containers & their carriers in the ports of LA & Long Beach today stand out.]
16/ Image
Then there was the real elephant in the pacific supply chain room...inter-service rivalry.

It wasn't simply a matter of the US Navy being in charge, not understanding Army needs & short changing them.

And there was a lot of that.

17/ ImageImage
In fact, A whole lot of that. The USN considered all merchant hulls in it's theater it's property.

No matter if they were War Shipping Administration, War Dept. charter or Army Transport Service. When it came to shipping, the USN was:

"All you bases are belong to us"
18/ Image
And it was more than the old saw of "The Navy gets the gravy while the Army get the beans."

Nope, it was the USN decided what was priority shipping for the theater including the building materials for Army infrastructure.

So the Army didn't get cement.

Literally, see:
19/ Image
Adm. Nimitz and his CENTPAC staff did more to stop US Army infrastructure building in the Pacific than all the torpedoes in the Japanese Navy!

And it went to actively sabotaging MacArthur's operations.

USN stole a complete harbor crft comp meant to land supplies at Leyte!
20/ ImageImageImage
A US Army harbor company w/o it's craft are over trained stevedores. Which was what the USN wanted to slow down MacArthur.

I found that bit of sabotage on pare 79 of the following document:

History of Army Port and Service Command.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
21/
And made sure to confirm it was sabotage by looking up Eniwetok's tugs & lighterage in the following photo clipped document:

Base facilities summary: advance bases, Central Pacific Area, 30 June, 1945.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
22/ Image
And then checking every tug, barge, floating crane and craft against this document:

Navy Seagoing Tugs and Related Craft
researcheratlarge.com/Ships/Misc/194…

23/
Whatever happened to those Transportation Corps watercraft. They were not at Eniwetok in June 1945 despite a huge number of USN lighterage being inoperative.

Nor did they ever make it to Leyte.

24/ Image
While MacArthur's supply issues at Leyte are blamed on Kamikazes & his own disorganization -- the official narrative.

The USN's "Grand Theft Army Watercraft" at Eniwetok played a bigger role in stopping MacArthur's supplies at Leyte than the HMIJS Yamato lead central force

25/ Image
Yet it can be said that Col Crosby's fact finding tour bore fruit for the Pacific Supply Chain in the SWPA.

By Jan 1945 the SWPA shipping regulation system communicated about shipping & port capacity in every base & with the West coast.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
26/
Yet for all the effort, the SWPA regulating system didn't fix the problem.

It only managed it.
27/
The heart of the issue was the dysfunction between the USN and the War Department, and especially the service troop impasse in the South Pacific.

The service troop needed for Downfall were Army & belonged to MacArthur, but the USN would not release operational control.
28/
The impasse leading to the "Great Pacific Supply Chain Collapse" during the planned invasion of Japan was broken not by agreement between supply chain stakeholders.

It was broken by the Atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
29/ Image
Just like it will take outside events to make the on-going the "Great World Supply Chain Collapse" irrelevant.

Pray G-d this supply chain collapse requires something much less drastic.
/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 29
Oh My!

The electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) of these jammer mountings has got to suck.

How many "nulls" this jammer throws (AKA where no jamming energy transmits) will be substantial.

1/
I did a thread on this in 2024 when the first turtle tank jammers appeared.

2/
The basics of electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) studies of antenna mounting have been around since 1944.

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 29
This is a development I have been expecting, once the AI truck hunting drones started hitting the main roads in occupied Ukraine.

Mining roads by air & rocket was late Cold War NATO doctrine after all.

1/
Deploying lots of anti-tank and anti-personnel land mines with Gator cluster munitions dispensers was one of the major themes of the 1980's Follow On Forces Attack (FOFA) doctrine.

The doctrine was highly effective, hence Ukraine using it in 2026.

2/
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The major issue with Gator is it ran a fowl the never sufficiently cursed out Ottawa Treaty banning AP land mines.

Despite the USA never having signing the treaty.

It generates international NGO lawfare accusations of "War Crimes" every time the USA uses the munition.

3/ Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
May 29
Regarding this:

>>The intensification of strikes against Russian 🇷🇺 logistics (150 vehicles, 30 trains, 400 warehouses) is a real game-changer in the war.

The 30 trains represent far more logistical tonnage than the trucks.

1/
Carrying capability 🧵
A Russian train with 30 box cars/wagons carries 1,800 to 2040 metric tons of cargo.

Per @grok Truck Equivalents for ~2,040 tons of cargo:

3-axle Kamaz tactical truck only (at ~13 t each): ~157 trucks (2,040 ÷ 13 ≈ 157). Range: 136–204 trucks depending on 10–15 t

2/ Image
4-axle Kamaz tactical truck only (at ~20 t each): ~102 trucks (2,040 ÷ 20 = 102). Range: ~82–127 trucks for 16–25 t

Mixed fleet (e.g., half 3-axle at 13 t, half 4-axle at 20 t): Roughly 120–140 trucks total

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
May 28
I called out the Chinese invasion requirements for Taiwan in May 2023 complete with a prediction they would have to be building satellite detectable 1944 invasion of Normandy Mulberry style infrastructure.

Chinese JLOTS req'ts link⬇️
x.com/TrentTelenko/s…

1/ x.com/johnkonrad/sta…
And this is the link to my prediction of what later became their "Corvis Mulberry" shore connectors.

The prototypes for which were under construction when I made my May 2023 prediction.

2/
In that thread I connected classic "irrational regime" Chinese 'Wolf Warrior diplomacy' as a behavior indicator of how they would view the world wide maritime trade and financial collapse invading Taiwan would cause as advantageous to China.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
May 26
Ummm...no. @grok said 10K Truck Movements, not trucks.

A truck making two movements a day within 150 km of the Russian border for 30 days is 60 truck movements out of the 10K, or 0.6%.

@grok's estimate was based on mirror imaging Western Mechanized logistics.
Truck Intel🧵
1/
I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:

"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."

2/Image
And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:

"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."

3/Image
Read 10 tweets
May 25
This⬇️

>>In total, I have more than 100 mapped hits on russian logistical means.

...means a lot in terms of truck attrition.

100 killed out of a truck fleet of projected 2,500 on this route is 4% of the total.
1/
Ukrainian military intelligence estimated Kamaz made 15,000 trucks from Feb 2022 to early 2026.

Call that period 49 months, and that's a Truck production rate of 300 a month.

100 trucks killed in a couple of months is "normal wastage."


2/
A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.

That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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