Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 9, 2021 30 tweets 16 min read Read on X
The issues that @fortisanalysis founder, @man_integrated spoke about recently piece on why the USA may never recover from the current supply chain disruptions have a historical analog in WW2 military supply chains.

That will be this thread's subject
1/
Intercontinental logistics is never easy. Even more so when there is a thinking enemy of the other side shooting holes in them.

Yet for all that, the US never got the single most important piece right the clearing cargo through ports & beaches.

See the WW2 D-Day example.
2/ ImageImage
In the Pacific theaters, it was far worse.

The tyranny of distance, no/poor infrastructure, bureaucracy, and inter-service politics were bigger foes than the Japanese.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
It also didn't help that the San Francisco Port of Embarkation was the most dysfunctional of WW2.

In addition to a 100 times increase in size & people, it calved off POE in Los Angeles, Seattle Portland, & Prince Rupert.

4/
nps.gov/articles/000/t… ImageImageImage
Imagine trying to inventory and mark for the proper consignee, & move a mess like this.

Which was actually a good day for the San Francisco POE.

5/ Image
Per the NPS San Fran POE link:

"The port and its subsidiary, served by three transcontinental railroads, handled more than 350,000 freight car loads, and employed 30,000 military and civilian employees, not counting the longshoremen who loaded and unloaded cars and ships."

6/ ImageImageImage
Per this link:

"In 1939, the SFPE employed 831 military and civilian personnel. They shipped 48,000 tons of cargo that year. By the end of WW2, in 1945, the SFPE employed more than 30,000 people.

7/
hmdb.org/m.asp?m=70000 Image
...They shipped more than 23 million tons of cargo and 1.65 million soldiers on 4,000 freighters & 800 troopships."

Not mentioned in either link is that the War Dept. fired three San Fran POE directors during WW2.
8/ Image
The last firing happened shortly before the end of WW2, because something needed to be done to logistically support the planned Operation Downfall invasions of the Japanese home islands.

It was the illusion of "doing something."

9/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Great Pacific Supply Chain Collapse" going into Downfall was years in the making. And It was well mapped by a War Dept. investigator in Sept-Oct 1944.

See:

Col. Crosby's report on trip to Pacific Ocean Area and Southeast Pacific Area.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…

10/
Col. Crosby put in the miles and time to investigate everything involved the the Pacific War supply chain. Every major port operation in Adm. Nimitz's & General Macarthur's theater's were investigated & photographed.
11/ Image
In the time before ISO containers & container ships, good warehousing, rail & port operations for break bulk freighters required nets, pallets, roller conveyors, forklifts, cranes and military stevedores.

Who were disproportionately African-American in the Jim Crow era.
12/ Image
The problem that Crosby found in his travels was the lack of skills/supplies/infrastructure to effectively use pallets, roller conveyors, & forklifts.

Material handling equipment (MHE), then or now, required skilled manpower, spare parts & proper infrastructure to use.
13/ ImageImageImageImage
In his visit to Oro Bay rear in MacArthur's theater, Crosby found that despite having fork lifts, pallets & leadership deeply committed to mechanization to save manpower. It simply wasn't happening.

14/ ImageImageImageImage
The meeting tonnage metrics now beat efficient for the future.

Spoilage or theft of offloaded tonnage was not measured.

It was the "Department of Someone Else's Problem."

15/ ImageImageImageImage
Different bases didn't share overages of pallets forklifts with bases lacking them because there was no effective communications nor incentives to do so.

[The parallels with containers & their carriers in the ports of LA & Long Beach today stand out.]
16/ Image
Then there was the real elephant in the pacific supply chain room...inter-service rivalry.

It wasn't simply a matter of the US Navy being in charge, not understanding Army needs & short changing them.

And there was a lot of that.

17/ ImageImage
In fact, A whole lot of that. The USN considered all merchant hulls in it's theater it's property.

No matter if they were War Shipping Administration, War Dept. charter or Army Transport Service. When it came to shipping, the USN was:

"All you bases are belong to us"
18/ Image
And it was more than the old saw of "The Navy gets the gravy while the Army get the beans."

Nope, it was the USN decided what was priority shipping for the theater including the building materials for Army infrastructure.

So the Army didn't get cement.

Literally, see:
19/ Image
Adm. Nimitz and his CENTPAC staff did more to stop US Army infrastructure building in the Pacific than all the torpedoes in the Japanese Navy!

And it went to actively sabotaging MacArthur's operations.

USN stole a complete harbor crft comp meant to land supplies at Leyte!
20/ ImageImageImage
A US Army harbor company w/o it's craft are over trained stevedores. Which was what the USN wanted to slow down MacArthur.

I found that bit of sabotage on pare 79 of the following document:

History of Army Port and Service Command.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
21/
And made sure to confirm it was sabotage by looking up Eniwetok's tugs & lighterage in the following photo clipped document:

Base facilities summary: advance bases, Central Pacific Area, 30 June, 1945.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
22/ Image
And then checking every tug, barge, floating crane and craft against this document:

Navy Seagoing Tugs and Related Craft
researcheratlarge.com/Ships/Misc/194…

23/
Whatever happened to those Transportation Corps watercraft. They were not at Eniwetok in June 1945 despite a huge number of USN lighterage being inoperative.

Nor did they ever make it to Leyte.

24/ Image
While MacArthur's supply issues at Leyte are blamed on Kamikazes & his own disorganization -- the official narrative.

The USN's "Grand Theft Army Watercraft" at Eniwetok played a bigger role in stopping MacArthur's supplies at Leyte than the HMIJS Yamato lead central force

25/ Image
Yet it can be said that Col Crosby's fact finding tour bore fruit for the Pacific Supply Chain in the SWPA.

By Jan 1945 the SWPA shipping regulation system communicated about shipping & port capacity in every base & with the West coast.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
26/
Yet for all the effort, the SWPA regulating system didn't fix the problem.

It only managed it.
27/
The heart of the issue was the dysfunction between the USN and the War Department, and especially the service troop impasse in the South Pacific.

The service troop needed for Downfall were Army & belonged to MacArthur, but the USN would not release operational control.
28/
The impasse leading to the "Great Pacific Supply Chain Collapse" during the planned invasion of Japan was broken not by agreement between supply chain stakeholders.

It was broken by the Atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
29/ Image
Just like it will take outside events to make the on-going the "Great World Supply Chain Collapse" irrelevant.

Pray G-d this supply chain collapse requires something much less drastic.
/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 12
Pres Zelenskyy of Ukraine just made an interesting statement:

"Let me give an example from yesterday, roughly like this: the Russians suffer about a thousand losses per day — that’s 500 killed and 500 wounded.

1/
I’m not even counting the 10 prisoners and so on. More precisely, 968 losses for Russia: 531 killed, 428 wounded, and 9 captured.

We had 340 losses in one day: 18 killed, 243 wounded, and 79 missing in action," he said."

2/
500 Russian KIA versus 18 Ukrainian KIA is a 29.5 to one ratio in favor of Ukraine.

Total Russian casualties of 1,000 versus 340 Ukrainian is a 2.9 to one ratio in favor of Ukraine.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12
Actually, the Soviet Union in the "Great Patriotic War" did suffer worse casualties and win.

It is that fact which powers the "Russian WW2 exceptionalism" myth that Putin used to zombify Russians over 20 years to make suicidal assaults over and over again.

1/
I said something like what Chuck just said about Russian casualties in July 2024.

Chuck now, like I did then, underestimates how powerful cultural conditioning is in making armies able to take horrific losses and continue.

2/
As long a Putin's propaganda keeps Russians believing they are winning by taking miniscule slivers of Ukrainian land.

The Russians will keep coming.

It doesn't mean Russia will win. It means Russia is paying a disproportionate blood debt which will have to be paid.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Aug 11
The map below underlines a real innumeracy issue with lots of Western analysts of Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign.

BLUF: 40,000/52 weeks is ~769 Ukrainian OWA drones launched a week on average for the whole year.

Ukrainian OWA Drone🧵
1/
Historic war mobilization production curves are heavily back loaded.

That is, the production rates of B-17's and B-24's bombers in the 3rd quarter of 1943 versus the 3rd quarter of 1944 showed a much higher production rate in late 1944.

2/ Image
Image
We are mid-way through the 3rd quarter of the 2025 where Ukraine's OWA drone annual production goal was 40,000.

Ukraine should be around 850-950 OWA drones a week in August 2025 and will be close to 1,200 a week in the 4th qtr. of the 2025.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
"Russian exceptionalism"⬇️

The Russians see themselves as immune to the consequences of their own actions.

The previous case studies in this were the Nazis and Imperial Japanese in WW2.

1/
Both polities had monumental hubris, the conviction that all was permitted, and that they were invincible.

The committed Nazis still believed they were winning in March-April 1945.

Japanese 'Yamato-damashii' beliefs took nukes to break.

2/ Image
Image
This Russian exceptionalist belief in the immunity to the consequences of their own actions is also why the Russians continue their insane suicidal assaults.

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
What is interesting for me is that the pre-2022 Western intelligence assessments of the Russian Army credited it with lots of tactical pipelines to move fuel.

Those would be far more useful in moving water than trucks...yet...where are they?

1/
These pipelines seem to have fallen into that same logistical 'assume they exist but don't' black hole as Russian truck D-rings & pallets, tactical truck trailers, and Russia's "superior" tooth to tail ratio that acts more like 1863 Union Army where...

2/
..."every soldier is a logistical manual laborer when not in combat".

Water is heavy. Pipelines are more efficient that trucks. Yet all we are seeing is Russian water trucks?

Who stole the Russian Army tactical pipelines? Or were they nothing but disinformation?

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
Russia is showing signs of being at "end run production."

It has run out of serious motor transport & even the smallest scale we are seeing kludged together trailers to make ends meet.

Note also: Water bottles & potatoes are the high priority transport items⬇️

End run🧵
1/
While we are getting Western intelligence assessments that continue to point out Russia's vast increases in production of military materiel, especially tanks, IFVs and APCs (from the same people who claimed Russia would over run Ukraine in 3-to-5 days)

2/
...claiming Russia is "obviously winning."

We are at the same time seeing economic signs of Russian "End Run Production."

The Russian wartime economy is functioning hand to mouth with oil sales revenues because all of the foreign exchange reserves are spent or frozen.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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