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Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
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9 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Worth considering whether Russia's leadership is now so marinated in its own propaganda that it genuinely believes only military pressure on neighbours prevents an attack on Russia

Ukraine, US and EU stuck in a position where every signal they send gets misinterpreted by Moscow
People trying to work out strategic thinking by Russia's leadership based on realistic assessment of Ukrainian, US or EU intent might be missing the possibility that Russia's leadership is so paranoid its internal system rationality is detached from political realities around it
If Russia's leadership genuinely believes a NATO/Ukrainian/US/EU etc attack is imminent, it can convince itself that buildups along Ukraine, Black Sea, Belarus, Baltic states are defensive while also once troops are there be paranoid enough to talk itself into war at short notice
How EU, Ukraine and US should deal with a paranoid leadership prone to misread signals yet that also only respects military strength is not what you could call a straightforward geopolitical dilemma

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More from @APHClarkson

Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
9 Nov
UK pundit blames EU for UK government not sticking to agreement UK government signed and negotiated with the EU.
Guys it's getting silly now
Might be worth using an alternative timeline where UK governments don't torch all trust with the EU and Irish governments in the run up to negotiations as a starting point before speculating about EU and Irish flexibility.
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
7 Nov
Find this stuff tiring. The moment mandates are dropped in EU states (they eventually will be) the same drops in mask use will play out in the same way. And once they're dropped most EU states will find it more difficult to ramp them back up again with same levels of compliance
You can argue that the UK government sent the "it's over" signal to the population prematurely in July. But what's done is done, the message was internalised. Every EU state will end up doing the same after the current spike is over and face the same dilemmas afterwards.
Sometimes the UK government's tendencies have pushed it ahead of the pack in Europe, sometimes it caught up with others that moved early. But I suspect if we look back in a few years we'll find UK policies, dilemmas and outcomes won't turn out much different to the rest of Europe
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
31 Oct
What UK observers need to take into account is if Paris assumes that coercion is the only way to get UK governments to stick to treaty commitments than the fish issue is a much lower cost dispute for France than it is for the UK.

It's not French supply chains being squeezed here
The UK really does not want to end up in a situation where as with Turkey the French hardline view that a neighbouring state of the EU cannot be trusted and will only stick to commitments if coerced spreads to other EU states that may have been more likely to help the UK out
Using the Northern Ireland Protocol to hit the EU ends up pushing in Ireland a state that could have been the UK's greatest friend in the EU towards France's hawkish approach to handling neighbouring states of the EU.
Read 6 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
30 Oct
Because the UK government still does not have personnel and infrastructure in place to run a functioning trade border regime with the EU, the UK does not have the means to reciprocally retaliate against French moves to slowroll goods checks on UK exporters
If you don't invest in the personnel and infrastructure to run anything beyond the lightest touch border system, you don't have the means to retaliate against businesses exporting to you from states that use their heavier touch border systems to pressure your exporters
It's like not investing in modern surface to air or anti-ship missiles and then being surprised when a rival state can flatten your positions from a carrier cruising just off your shoreline
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
28 Oct
Is there a supply backlog or shortage of spare parts and components for key infrastructure equipment in energy, water, transport and tech sectors? If so, how would such supply chain issues affect maintenance, system resilience and reliability of provision to states and customers?
At what point do all those containers piling up in ports, ships backed up unable to unload, production facilities slowing down affect supply chains that are essential for maintenance of power plants, rail systems, internet infrastructure, water systems and so on?
@SamuelMarcLowe @michaeltanchum ?
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
27 Oct
US-based economists and economic historians that decry the EU for not emulating US stimulus packages that to a large extent replicate what EU states have been doing for decades
We still get op/eds in American newspapers predicting the decline and fall of the EU because it won't emulate the cash US governments throw at stimulus packages even as the current US government can't even get paid leave legislation through the US Senate.
Read 4 tweets

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