Lecturer for German and European Studies at King's College London. Opinions my own. RT not always endorsement.
Also to be found at @APHClarkson@mastodon.social
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Dec 12, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The first time there have been no checkpoints or physical border checks between Vienna and Varna since the Ottoman Empire
In grand historical terms you could see the EU as a supra-national absorption mechanism integrating the legacies of the Habsburg, Bourbon, Ottoman and Jagiellionian empires
Sep 30, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The extent to which so much analysis assumes that the IDF would just repeat the 2006 playbook as if it had not learned as much as Hezbollah from that conflict is baffling.
It's likely the Israelis have a pretty good overview of what faces them in Southern Lebanon.
Israelis are more likely to win in purely military terms against Hezbollah and Hamas than many blinded by myth-making surrounding both organisations assume
But if the Israelis get sucked into Lebanon in a lasting way and this drags on they'll tank Israel's economy in the process
Sep 22, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Internal instability within the regime will build up over months and years in ways that factions who can attract or buy the loyalty of armed formations are most likely to take advantage of.
The liberal opposition is likely to be irrelevant to this intra-elite struggle for power
I suspect if and when Putin falls, a lot of people in the EU and US will be shocked with how quickly many Russian emigres who now present themselves as liberal will be willing to align with promising armed factions out of desperation to gain some power in Russian politics
May 27, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A general who took care of his troops, was popular among soldiers and officers while proving competent in handling military operations is one of the most senior figures to get purged.
Putinism's approach to squeezing the army resembles Baathist regimes under Hafez or Saddam
If the US is unable to provide aid to Ukraine and does not seem a reliable partner for other European states its concerns will be ignored by Ukraine and other European states
Quincyite Restrainers and MAGA isolationists are ultimate cakeists in assuming the US can withdraw commitments from allies while still keeping influence the US developed through massive involvement in key global regions.
Instead DC will moan on the sidelines as others ignore it.
Feb 17, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Panels at the Munich Security Conference invariably spend a lot of time wringing hands over the so-called Global South while spending as little time as possible paying attention to the details of relentless conflicts and regional power rivalries in the Global South
A bit of time at MSC focused on wars in Sudan, Abiy's moves, state cohesion in the Sahel or growing risks of state vs state war between DRC and Rwanda rather than vague strategic platitudes might show EU and US policymakers actually care about events in the "Global South"
Nov 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
A potential trap in focusing entirely on narratives of settler colonialism in assessing imperial power structures and migration that can go back centuries is how quickly they can get absorbed into Far Right demands for expulsion of minorities in Europe, India or Africa
The assumption that narratives of settler colonialism will only target West Europeans or North Americans looks ropey if one considers how various nativist movements in Europe, Africa and India can also end up targeting the migration and political legacies of Muslim empires.
Nov 4, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The problem for those in the West pitching ceasefire and talks with Putin over Ukraine has always been one of trust. His speech on 24 February 2022 indicated that he believes he is pursuing a divine historical mission in ways that mean his word in any compromise cannot be trusted
At best a ceasefire puts Ukraine in a permanent no war/no peace situation rather than stable outcomes.
Even in those terms, there is specific territory Ukraine would still need to gain now for it to sustain such a long term India/Pakistan dynamic punctuated by surges in fighting
Sep 21, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
One of the ironies of Ukraine's accession into the EU is going to be that once in EUCO, EP and the Commission the interests of Ukrainian governments will on the general direction of EU integration align more with Paris than with Warsaw.
It is Poland that in its suspicion of Berlin and Paris keeps pushing for a deeper US role in European security while Ukraine having dealt with Trump's lunacies and Biden's reluctance to provide key systems would be much happier to be part of a Gaullist EU with strategic autonomy
Aug 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Just as Navalny is right to point to failures to reform Russian society in the 1990s, it is worth considering what happened during the Soviet Ukrainian Shelest era in the 1960s and then under Kravchuk and Kuchma in the late 1980s and early 1990s to make change in Ukraine possible
Shelest believed in Ukraine as equal partner to Russia in a shared Soviet empire and got purged by Brezhnev in 1971 for believing Kyiv was at the same level of Moscow.
Kravchuk was a clever opportunist in the late 1980s and Kuchma ridiculously corrupt in the 1990s.
Jun 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The idea that an authoritarian regime whose security services fail to anticipate an armed revolt and whose army fails to crush the advance of rebellious armed groups comes out stronger of any deals made to buy off rebel leaders doen't really stand up to any historical comparison
The extent to which the myth of Putin as master strategist has become an intellectual crutch for so many observers immersed in static intellectual assumptions about the unchanging nature of Russian society or great power hierarchies is most evident whenever he screws up
May 26, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The problem with a fatalistic population in a military campaign is the submissiveness that means people yield to fate when being forced to be sent to the front means they also yield to fate and surrender when the enemy army puts them under pressure.
The Nazi regime as well as the Stalinist Soviet system were both intensely focused not just on generating fear and submission but also on fuelling genuine ideological zeal so that enough people enthusiastically embraced sacrifice for a cause
May 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I see Nick Timothy has still not quite grasped that migration waves are as much demand led as supply driven
There is something a little sad at so many wasting so much time arguing over a post-Brexit migration system when demand from UK citizens for easier access to the EU means their efforts get steamrollered after all
May 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Beginning to think classifying the FPÖ as a Far Right populist party is increasingly problematic if you look at Kickl's rhetoric now.
As a Far Right party, under Kickl's leadership the FPÖ is becoming much more ideologically movement driven than under Haider, Grasser or Strache
Even before Haider the FPÖ had factions that fed on racist resentment and Far Right elements. Starting with campaigns against Slovenian minority rights, Haider made that faction dominant and stoked patriarchal, racist and anti-system resentment in a successful populist strategy
May 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
A lot of the fear and hatred towards the EU exuded by people on the UK Right educated in exclusive schools seems to come down to Etonians not being able to cope with a world in which they're told what to do by Estonians
Imagine going to the most exclusive British education institutions that tell you that you are at the top of a social hierarchy only to find out a bunch of earnest consultants and EU officials who went to a Romanian or Portuguese high school have the power to determine your future
May 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
That FPV drones could have a huge battlefield impact if treated as guided munitions was pretty obvious by 2017 and is visibly taking shape now
Also love the boyoviy komar nickname for FPV drones that is increasingly used.
War mosquito
May 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The National Conservative conference isn't designed to help the Conservative Party win an election, it's designed to help Far Right candidates win the Party leadership after an election defeat.
To those organising the NatCon events it doesn't matter whether the speeches repel millions of centrist voters that Sunak needs to survive as Prime Minister as long as they capture the imagination of the 150 000 Tory Party members who choose his successor
Mar 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Russian elites always faced a choice between alignment with the EU system or aligmment with China's sphere of influence.
Russia never had the economic or demographic resources to stand alone as its own geopolitical "pole"
There is a profound historical irony in how Putin's invasion of Ukraine was designed to reassert Russia's role as geopolitical "pole" in the global system yet the disastrous outcomes of the invasion forcing Russian elites to face the realities of Russia's geoeconomic weakness
Mar 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The geopolitical Putin apologism and social darwinian banter from tech libertarians like Musk and Sacks should have acted as a big red flag when it comes to basic understanding among the Silicon Valley tech and venture capital scene of how political and economic systems work
As with Brexiters in the UK, MAGA in the US or Pegida in Germany, a lot of news media that consider themselves pillars of serious analysis need to now ask how much they helped stoke hype around a libertarian tech cult of venture capital whose delusions they will now deplore
Mar 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The "Global South" is a concept devoid of any analytically usable meaning and in fostering oversimplification and Western-centric perspectives actively distorts geopolitical debate
There are a lot of different perspectives that need to be engaged with in the EU and US, each with their own specific regional and local perspectives. One thing they have in common is that they're becoming increasingly economically and militarily powerful
Mar 9, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The German government did what was once declared impossible and ended Germany's dependence on Russian gas in 8 months.
Of course transport is a different challenge, but if France, Germany, Spain and Italy are capable of building high speed rail surely the UK is too?
Maybe the Treasury and the rest of the UK government will only realise that an inability to do the basics of transport infrastructure is a bit of a problem for Britain after the East Europeans have finished their high speed rail systems
