Thread by @drraghibali

A brief thread summarising our current COVID situation and what we can expect going forward - and why - although Covid is by no means over - we should be cautiously optimistic about the coming months:

1/9

First, although it’s easy to forget this given some of the commentary, the situation is so much better now than this time last year when hospital admissions & deaths were much higher and doubling every 2-3 weeks - and we were in lockdown - with all its harms.

2/9

Admissions are now about half & deaths about a third of what they were then and both are falling.
And we have no restrictions; society and the economy are open and unemployment is falling.
So we have less direct & indirect health harm from Covid and also from restrictions.

3/9

This transformation is of course mainly due to the successful vaccine program in higher risk groups (reducing hospitalizations and deaths) and also very high population immunity from the combination of vaccines and natural infection in younger age groups.

4/9

But of course Covid is not over - prevalence of infection is still high & immunity is waning in older age groups (as shown above) and many people in higher risk groups have not yet taken / are waiting for boosters but that is also picking up:

5/9

And pressure on NHS is still v. high - although this is not only due to Covid but also the welcome return of all our other patients & the backlog. It also means we have less beds (infection control) & more staff sickness. And many staff are mentally & physically exhausted.

6/9

So we hope everyone will help relieve this pressure by taking the booster jab & flu jab when offered it - as well as hands, face, space, air, etc. - which not only protects them but also means the NHS can keep treating all our patients through the Winter & save many lives.

7/9

We now know that Covid is not going away, & as we move into the endemic phase, we have to learn to live with it, as we do with flu, and continue to take personal & collective responsibility to protect ourselves & others - without the need for government-mandated restrictions.
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So in summary, with all metrics heading in the right direction & based on the experience of the countries who have completed their booster programs (shown below), we should be cautiously optimistic about the coming months & look forward to a much better Christmas this year.

9/9

P.S. Being optimistic is not the same as being complacent. As I have said throughout the pandemic, we shouldn't fall into excessive fear or complacency as both lead to harm, but the constant pessimism we see from some – despite improving data - causes health & economic harms too.

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