Thread by @SarcasticIndian

THREAD -
To all those celebrating Indian team's early exit from #T20WorldCup21 enjoy your brief moment of schadenfreude as this team rarely affords you that opportunity but do keep in mind 1 thing..
1/n

..that you'll are also celebrating the acceleration of the inevitable demise of international cricket & the downfall of your own cricket board.

2/n

Team India's early exit means broadcasters & sponsors will bear heavy losses. All those unsold premium ad slots means Star Sports will be lucky to break even on this tournament. This after the flop that was the 2019 ODI WC is a hard strike to their bottom line.

3/n

This means the interest of all broadcasters in the next cycle of ICC media rights just fell drastically.
All companies will now be even more determined to get the IPL media rights whatever the cost as they're guaranteed a minimum profit with potential upside being huge.

4/n

Having blown their wad, so to speak, the winner of the IPL rights is not going to have the risk appetite to put up a big amount for bilateral series or for ICC events, especially given the many risks & costs associated with them.

5/n

Which means the number of potential buyers of media rights has dropped by 1. Given that there aren't many companies with the budget to afford such expensive deals what was already a buyer's market becomes even more so & their ability to drive down the price is strengthened.

6/n

Wouldn't surprise 1 bit if the ICC media rights didn't show any appreciation or even a drop. And that hits not only ICC but even the boards dependent on that revenue.
Even media rights of individual boards' bilateral series are going to be affected.

7/n

Needing content which comes with a guaranteed viewership broadcasters are going to be pushing hard for more IPL seasons & that is going to come about sooner rather than later.

8/n

Maybe not in the next 5 - or even 10 - years but in our lifetime IPL is going to be the mainstay with only limited international cricket being played.

9/n

Blind fans who have no knowledge will say "well only India won't play international cricket", "good riddance", etc. They have no sense of how the cricket economy works and are distant from reality.

10/n

Except for the Big 3 tours everyone else loses money. The only way the other boards are surviving is due to their share of ICC revenue. And guess who generates 90% of that income? BCCI/India, who currently are being unnecessarily kind in giving up almost 70% of their share.
11/n

Despite that all BCCI/India get in return are brickbats & abuse. So if BCCI exits the ICC which many (like our neighbours) fantasize about that's 90% of the ICC's revenue stream gone.

12/n

Even with current ICC revenues so many boards are struggling. Hell even CA's condition is precarious. ECB is ok for now coz they just scammed plenty during the many ICC events it staged in the last decade but with falling interest among young fans how long will that last?
13/n

No one else generates enough money on their own to sustain themselves. Ask the PCB board president if you don't believe it.
CA & ECB already cancel tours at the drop of a hat, what do you think will happen to their willingness to tour & host others if the ICC $$$ dries up?

14/n

Do you think they'll be lining up loss making tours of Pakistan & Sri Lanka anytime soon? No, it'll be Ashes & more Ashes. With some India tours in between. So yes get back to your mocking, there won't be many occasions like these left.

15/n

Already the media rights of bilateral series have been showing a cooling in interest/valuations, the next IPL rights is going to drive down valuations of the bilateral series some more.

7A/n

Why would broadcasters risk huge amounts of money with no guaranteed return? For every India vs Pak WC match they have to also spend money for a Namibia vs Scotland match. Then there are issues like non-prime time games for WC's held in certain countries.

7B/n

OTOH even a IPL game with the lowest viewership will fetch more eyeballs & revenue than the entire 10 days of the India vs New Zealand (supposedly the test champions) test series.

7C/n

Sure, in response other boards may also double down on their domestic leagues but they will be competing with a possible nearly year-round IPL for media rights, players, viewership etc. Who is likely to come out on top in that battle?

9A/n

In the next stage of the evolution of IPL there will be player-exclusivity contracts which means the top names will only be seen there. Then other leagues will be lucky to even get the "railu kattas" as a ex-cricketer-turned-PM classified them.

9B/n