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Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
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10 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
A 0.6% m/m core inflation rate is an annualized 7.4% rate. Remember that core inflation is what the Fed targets, and its target is 2% (though it targets PCE inflation and this is CPI, which can differ slightly).
Also, median inflation, another measure of broad-based inflation, is running similarly high.

This inflation is making it very hard for people to get real wage increases.

Keep in mind that annualized core inflation was the measure that had Team Transitory declaring victory last month, when it dipped almost down to the target level for one month.
Keep in mind that if a 7.4% annualized core inflation rate were sustained over a year, it would mean inflation is almost as high as the spike in the early 70s.

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More from @Noahpinion

Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
10 Nov
Protip for pundits: If someone with a smaller following than you calls you out with a bad-faith reading of something you wrote, don't respond. They're doing it for attention, trying to get you to give them free eyeballs by arguing with them.
Corollary: If someone with a much *bigger* following than you calls you out with a bad-faith reading, don't be afraid. They've just given you a freebie. Explain repeatedly why their bad-faith reading is incorrect, and you'll get free eyeballs. Remember to save screenshots.
Note that the first tip works whether or not you want more attention at all, and the second tip works even if you only want positive, healthy attention for saying good and reasonable things.
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
9 Nov
Remember: You're an unappreciated genius surrounded by idiots who think they're unappreciated geniuses surrounded by idiots
80% of the value in any organization is created by 20% of the people, and if you're reading this, you're definitely in the 20%
Also, your political opinions are backed by data, history, and just plain common sense. People with contrary opinions are all arguing in bad faith.
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
8 Nov
Interesting thread, but I'm not sure this sort of rhetoric will get anyone's notice. Elected leaders are expected to say this stuff, so people tune them out.
The Twitter activists and media figures who people see -- rightly or wrongly -- as the true face of the progressive movement are not going to praise Columbus or say America is a great nation. So I don't think it really matters what Biden and Harris say here.
Biden already did this with "defund the police". He said, very clearly, from day 1, that he didn't want to defund the police.

But Republicans still run on the message that Democrats don't just want to defund the police, but did, in fact, already do it!

abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden…
Read 11 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
5 Nov
I see survey researchers are preparing for our mixed-race future! 🤪
Imagine a future where this chart becomes standardized and every Hispanic or mixed-race person has to shout out their skin color number at the beginning of business meetings (so that blind people will know how to treat them).

I swear if this happens I will become Chris Rufo.
This country is just getting absolutely ridiculous

Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
3 Nov
1/Today's Substack post is about Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.

There's a mythology that has grown up around these two Presidents, and I aim to bust the myths.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/much-of-what…
2/The myth goes a little bit like this:
3/First, let's bust the myth that Reagan tamed inflation.

It was Paul Volcker who tamed inflation, by raising interest rates.

And who appointed Volcker? Jimmy Carter.

And under which President did Volcker raise interest rates? Again, Jimmy Carter.
Read 21 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
3 Nov
How Republicans will remember Biden:
They Might Be Giants taught me that this is how people actually remember history.

"I remember the book depository where they crowned the King of Cuba", etc.

"Martin X was mad when they outlawed bell-bottoms/ Ten years later they were sharing the same cell" is a line that hits pretty hard IMO
Read 4 tweets

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