Quick thoughts on $TCEHY, my second largest stock holding behind $TDOC
Revenue growth is slowing a bit, 13,5% YoY.
Something slightly worrying is Fintech growing to a bigger chunck of the business. Easy target for a crackdown and this one could really hurt
Tencent still in the leading position in a lot of sectors in china and worldwide. This won't change in the foreseeable future imo.
Internation VAS growth outpacing chinese growth by a lot
$TCEHY expects a slowdown in Advertising growth for a few quarters. Crackdowns are forcing companies to tune down marketing
Fintech and Business services are doing well, I'd really love them to disclose Fintech and Business services individually. I wanna know how much B services are growing in particular.
Margins are pretty stable. Not much felt from the crackdowns (yet? )
Costs are rising faster than revenue, which isn't great to see. It's fine for R&D though.
The fair value of $TCEHY equity investments is $185 billion or 31% of Tencents marketcap.
Also a small buyback, not really worth mentioning. I would expect them to spend more with this price. They have ~$40 billion in cash right now.
Summary: I'm not loving what I'm seeing, somethings like advertising slowdown are not great to see, since its a high margin business. Overall they will be fine. Let's see how the regulations will work out going forward.
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So many painful mistakes, but so many important lessons learned: 2022 was a very turbulent year where many of my beliefs were shattered and I learned a lot about myself and my investment process.
Let's review my 6 learnings of 2022 🧵👇
First off, if you want to read this in more detail, check out my @SubstackInc post about this
1st I learned that long-term compounders with a long runway are much more suitable for me personally than the fast-growing tech stocks I primarily owned in 2020/21. Companies with good moats and great management are much easier to hold over long timeframes.
Napco Security Technologies is a fast-growing high-quality small-cap flying under the radar of most investors.
They are in essential markets and are growing a recurring revenue stream. Let me show you why I bought $NSSC after it’s already up 1500% in the last decade. A quick🧵
If you prefer to read this in an article format, I did publish a more detailed version in my @SubstackInc 👇
Napco was founded in 1969 in Amityville, New York by Richard Soloway, who to this day is the CEO with 20% of shares outstanding (remaining management team owns another 2%).
The difference good Capital Allocation can make.
How $RICK went from 21 years of dead money to a 10-bagger in 6 years. A small 🧵
In the first 21 years, the company maximized revenue growth and grew at all costs, often by diluting shareholders. Even though revenues increased 33x, FCF went nowhere and the stock was flat
In 2016 @RicksCEO embraced good capital allocation after reading William Thorndikes "Outsider CEOs" and focused on FCF/shares growth instead of revenues.
Sonova is a high-quality Swiss compounder that nobody talks about.
They are the leader in hearing aid solutions 🦻 and here is why I invested 3% of my portfolio into $SOON.
So sit back and hear me out (had to do it) 👇
Sonova was founded in 1947 in Stäfa 🇨🇭and since then has become the global leader in hearing aid solutions, an industry with long secular tailwinds (aging population) and a very underserved market.
Sonova has 4 segments for the different needs for hearing solutions:
- Consumer Hearing: $SOON recently acquired @Sennheiser consumer division for conventional headphones and other consumer goods.
- Hearing Instruments: This part focuses on conventional hearing aid solutions 1/2
Why I invested 3% into a Swedish Serial Acquirer that achieved a 31% CAGR since its SECOND IPO in 2014
A small thread about $LIFCO 🧵
Wait who?
Lifco started in 1946 as a medical equipment company, but the real story starts in 1998 when Carl Bennet took a majority stake in the business. He then in 2000 took it private to do restructuring and IPOed again in 2014
What do they do?
Lifco is a serial acquirer and long-term owner of companies in the Dental, Demotion & Tools and System Solutions industry.
Over the years Lifco purchased hundreds of companies and has a widely diversified portfolio
Serial acquirer of Strip clubs and a sports bar chain.
Let's get into why I decided to buy them. A quick thread 👇
I found out about RCI Hospitality holdings through one of my recent tweets, asking for companies that follow my ideal capital allocation framework. Thanks to @21stCentValue for suggesting $RICK
$RICK used to be a mediocre company that chased revenue by acquiring mediocre clubs in bad deals and other ways to increase revenue. In 2016 @RicksCEO "saw the light" and changed the whole capital allocation strategy of the company.