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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
@baseballot
Nov 11, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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California's draft congressional map is now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight This map features 39 🔵 seats, 7 🔴 seats, and 6 🟣 seats. Like the current map, it is moderately skewed toward Democrats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight It doesn't change the overall landscape too much in California but several individual districts were affected. For instance, in the Central Valley, Devin Nunes's district is now D+5, and Josh Harder's district has been blown up. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight In the Los Angeles area, Lucille Roybal-Allard drew the short straw, as her district was the one eliminated. Katie Porter's district also gets a tad redder, while Mike Garcia's and Michelle Steel's get bluer. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight Also in SoCal, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and Sara Jacobs get more competitive seats (though maybe Jacobs would prefer to run against one of her SD-area colleagues). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight Big caveat: This draft will change. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

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More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Nov 3
After elections, there are often misconceptions and distortions that arise about what the polls and models said. So I want to plant a flag right now, before we know the result. 🧵
1. According to the consensus of the data we have, Harris and Trump have roughly equal chances to win. Anyone who tells you with certainty that they know who will win is not making a data-based prediction.
2. “What the polls say” can vary depending on which polls you look at, but any comprehensive aggregation/average of them points to extremely tight races in the 7 main swing states.
Read 10 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Oct 11
🧵: We looked into the TIPP/American Greatness poll of PA that has been making the rounds on here. If you’re not familiar, you can find the poll here: amgreatness.com/2024/10/10/tru…
The poll got our attention because, while its registered-voter version included 124 RVs from Philadelphia, 116 of whom said they were “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote, the LV version had only 12 LVs from there. Image
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We thought this might be an error, so we reached out to TIPP & American Greatness. The president of TIPP responded and said it wasn’t an error: This poll’s LV model assigns a vote probability to each respondent based on their demographics & vote history, and…
Read 10 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
New from me: Six Republicans have said they won't vote for Kevin McCarthy for speaker. 222 - 6 = less than 218. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house…
Five of these names have been widely reported, but national media seems to have missed that Rep.-elect Mike Collins (#GA10) promised not to vote for McCarthy at his campaign kickoff last year. gpb.org/news/2021/09/1…
The anti-McCarthy Republicans all have very conservative and very anti-establishment voting records. Using DW-NOMINATE, I identified 7 other Republicans who fit the same profile. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
Interesting to see some people convinced this means Sinema IS running for reelection and some convinced it means she ISN’T.
FWIW, my first instinct was that this means she’s retiring. But I really have no idea.
Maybe she’s daring Democrats to just not run a candidate against her, lest they throw the election to the GOP? But I think there’s very little chance of that happening.
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
This is an extremely misleading thread, conflating ballot due dates with dropbox availability.
Richer's previous tweet implies he is talking about ballot deadlines here. But in fact:

AZ's ballot deadline: Election Day
OR's: 7 days later
CA's: 7 days later
UT's: Varies, but at least 7 days later
WA's: 21 days later!

Meanwhile, FL's ballot deadline is the same as AZ's: Election Day.

The difference is FL closes dropboxes at the end of early voting. Whereas Arizonans can drop off their ballot at several locations on E-Day, Floridians have to go to the elections office.

Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 7, 2022
Rep.-elect Anthony D'Esposito (#NY04) is supporting Kevin McCarthy for speaker, a spokesperson tells FiveThirtyEight.
Rep.-elect Nick LaLota (#NY01) also supports McCarthy, his campaign tells me.
Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna on the speaker vote: "I will vote on January 3rd for whoever allows me to best represent my constituents… I do not like to publicly disclose my private conversations with my colleagues."
Read 9 tweets

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