I agree with the conclusion: the verdict probably won't be the product of rulings by Judge Schroeder, but rather [insert whatever you think drives the outcome here other than the judge].
Nonetheless, there have been some 'balls and strikes' issues here worth discussing.
Despite what Justice Roberts says, SCOTUS isn't an umpire calling balls and strikes. They are MLB, deciding the rules of the game, who can own a team, and who can play.
But trial judges often are calling balls and strikes, and it can make a difference.
/2
For example, the video, filmed 2 weeks before Kenosha, in which Rittenhouse sees people leaving a CVS and says "Bro, I wish I had my (expletive) AR, I’d start shooting rounds at them."
There's a blanket rule against admitting this kind of 'propensity' evidence... and then several huge exceptions to that rule, including "proof of motive, opportunity, intent, preparation, plan, knowledge, identity, or absence of mistake or accident." docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/statutes/statu…
/4
In this clip, the judge reiterates his reason for excluding it. He's not wrong.
I don't mean "he's right." I mean he's not wrong: his reasoning is not indisputably incorrect.
He could've held otherwise, admitting the video, and also been not wrong.
/5
Which brings me back to the balls and strikes. Erroneous calls add up. What makes the Rittenhouse trial judge's handling unusual isn't the couple of strikes called in Rittenhouse's favor, it's the absence of any strikes wrongly called against him. ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/…
/end
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Unfortunately, the bill to make parents give an "observed urine sample" based on anonymous reports passed the Pennsylvania House. Bizarrely, it's one of the fastest-moving bills in the General Assembly: in two weeks it passed two committees and the House floor.
1) The judge didn't have to entertain this. The defense lawyer obviously has no genuine basis—hence the "logarithm" and "AI"—he's just hoping to jam up the prosecutor's presentation. The judge could've said "do your homework and raise a real objection."
2) We can dunk on all three for misunderstanding image scaling, but it shouldn't matter. As the prosecutor said, they've been zooming and cropping digital images the whole trial, and the defense has no genuine basis to suggest this is different. Judge could've denied on that.
/2
3) In this situation, the burden should be on the defense to call an expert. The prosecution has the burden of proving the crime; the prosecution doesn't have the burden of proving the absence of stealth Apple AI tech that performs LCD interpolation in a nonstandard way.
/3
Odd how this "only thread" wasn't recognized by the founding generation, rarely occurred until the 1880s, almost always failed before the 1950s (because it required actual continuous filibustering), and today uses a procedure invented in 1972 and modified repeatedly up to 2017.
There's no honest way to look at the Constitution or the history of the Senate and say "the filibuster is the only thread we have in America to keep democracy alive and well." When Manchin was born, filibusters were a rare event limited to civil rights. getrevue.co/profile/maxken…
Senate votes on cloture, 1917–1970: 49
Senate votes on cloture, 2021 (so far): 100
"The filibuster is the only thread we have in America to keep democracy alive and well." — @Sen_JoeManchin 🙄
Gah. Well, congrats to the headline-seeking researchers behind that VAERS / myocarditis study, they found the audience they were looking for!
But let's talk for a second about the study.
/1
VEARS is cool, just like FAERS is cool. It's a simple system for collecting adverse event reports from anywhere. Typically, these are used to flag events with disproportionate reporting frequency, which can then be analyzed with other methods that have validated medical data.
/2
I will grant the authors of the paper ( medrxiv.org/content/10.110… ) one thing, they set up a link to make it easy to comb through the VAERS reports included in their analysis: bit.ly/CAEmRNA
The first page says: "The case has been thoroughly briefed before us—twice." That is untrue. The merits of the case have never been before SCOTUS. What they've had instead were two emergency motions on the "shadow docket" with minimal briefing and no oral argument.
One problem with this emergency / "shadow docket" mode of deciding cases is the high likelihood of factual error, such as this.
The orderly distribution of rental assistance did not happen. The 6 conservative Justices simply assert, erroneously, the issue has "diminished."
/2
The 6 conservatives Justices similarly do not address the changed circumstances. In dissent, Justice Breyer points out what we all know: COVID cases have been rising dramatically via the Delta variant, and the balance of equities now is even more in favor of the moratorium.
See D.C. Circuit, No. 21-5093 (June 2, 2021)(affirming district court stay order); see also U.S. Supreme Court, No. 20A169 (June 29, 2021)(denying application to vacate stay).
FYI, Kavanaugh's concurrence is not the law. We can make predictions what SCOTUS *might* do, but predictions aren't the law. The law is what the majority did: refuse to vacate the D.C. Circuit's order.
/2
Obviously, Congress could've and should've fixed this legislatively in light of the apparent legal threats. For the moment, however, 42 U.S.C. § 264(a) can be used to extend the eviction moratorium. This may change with future court developments, but that is the law right now.