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Max Kennerly Profile picture
Max Kennerly
@MaxKennerly
https://t.co/4lHMAMtBEx https://t.co/Tv4ClTHjag https://t.co/g5MmweHZMm
7 subscribers
Feb 14, 2023 • 17 tweets • 10 min read
This article is a good starting point for the East Palestine derailment. The info circulating on social media has been suboptimal, to say the least. Grab a cup of coffee and let's go over everything from vinyl chloride to electronic brake regulations.
/1 20 miles *before* it derailed, the 150-car train was already sparking/burning. A "hotbox" detector in Salem, OH, should've picked that up and alerted the crew. It's unknown if it did, but seems unlikely or they would've hit the emergency brake then.
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Sep 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
That's not what FL & TX are doing. They could move more people if they coordinated with other states; they refuse. And they're not trying to save money, they're spending a ton of money to sporadically move a handful of people in ways that maximize chaos and media coverage.

1/5 TX AG Paxton is a huge liar, but let's take his numbers at face value. (The biggest number there is likely a total fabrication.)

If "cost" is the issue, why spend nearly $3 billion on border security to reduce an $850 million expense?
texastribune.org/2022/04/18/tex…

2/5
Aug 9, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I guess it was inevitable thanks to Trump's quest to be involved with every aspect of American law: let's talk about federal magistrate judges.

Many moons ago, I clerked for one. (I recommend law students consider it, it was a great and useful experience.)
/1 United States Magistrate Judges aren't appointed by the President nor confirmed by the Senate and they're not lifetime appointments. They come to the position through a long process including a merit selection panel and a vote of the active judges in the district.
/2 Image
Apr 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
aaaannnnd it turns out Musk's SEC disclosure (which claimed he was exempt from a 13D report because he's a "passive" investor) was both late and just plain false, as Twitter just disclosed he has an agreement to be appointed to their board: sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv… Seems the "great value" Musk will provide is being restricted from owning more than 14.9% of Twitter, which I guess we can say is a win of sorts—damage mitigation—for the Board. The more he owns, the easier it is for him to exert control, such as by replacing board members.
Mar 5, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
It would be dysfunctional to "promote domestic oil/gas production." Production is at the level chosen by the industry based on market forces. If that's causing harm, we shouldn't subsidize it, we should admit private oil & gas markets are a failure and nationalize them.
/1 Bear in mind, domestic oil and gas prices bear no relation to domestic supply and demand. The U.S. does not have a shortage of oil or gas. We have a huge excess of natural gas that we export. We have a bit of an oil oversupply (compared to 2000-2014) which is winding down.
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Mar 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
This thread is just strawmen. Progressive millennials don't "buy into American supremacy" at all. Their views aren't built on U.S. dominance, but on U.S. foreign policy's repeated failures in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. And they don't "tolerate imperialism."
1/4 Foreign policy views among progressives vary, but most believe some version of: U.S. "realpolitik" leaders like Kissinger and Rumsfeld weren't clear-eyed realists, they were clowns, ideologues, profiteers, and war criminals who made the world worse and the U.S. less safe.
2/4
Feb 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
I've seen a lot of arguments over "what percent of COVID deaths are vaccinated?" Probably 15%-20%, depending on the population.

(This is not an antivax thread. The COVID vaccine has prevented >1 million deaths and >10 million hospitalizations in the US. Get vaccinated.)

1/5 A simple method: apply death rates to vaxed/unxaved population fraction

Weekly COVID death rates ≥12yo
unvaccinated ≈9.5/100k
vaccinated ≈0.5/100k

72.7% ≥12yo fully vaccinated

Standard rate comparison (unvaccinated = "exposed" here):

≈83% of deaths are unvaccinated.

2/5 ImageImageImageImage
Feb 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Vermeule is a theocratic authoritarian and NYT should not be giving him free promotion for his book. The fact that he gets a few things right (e.g., originalism is fake, standing is too narrow, OSHA vaccine decision was bad) doesn't change that his argument is cryptofascism.
1/4 Vermuele wants judges to bend the law towards the "common good." He's coy about what he means by that, but his view is sprinkled throughout: law should enforce "traditional morality" to prevent "diffuse harms to the community and the broader corrosion of the social fabric."
2/4
Jan 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
PA bill HB 1737 is alive again, committee vote on Monday. This is a bill to overturn a PA Supreme Court decision which said parents can't be forced to provide an "observed urine sample" to CPS just because of an anonymous complaint the parent "appeared to be impaired."
1/4 Frankly, part of me hopes PA HB 1737 becomes law. Every time I see @JakeCorman speak he looks drunk to me, so I guess I should be flooding CPS with anonymous complaints. Then some bureaucrat can tell him: "let me watch you pee in a cup or I'll take your children."
2/4
Jan 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The shorter process does, however, present an opportunity to bring back the real filibuster—the talking filibuster—the way every filibuster had to be done up until the 1970s. The presiding officer just has to say, "the rules and precedents will be applied strictly."
1/5 Real filibusters are hard. That's why you don't hear much about the filibusters of the 1893 silver bill or the Hatch Act or Alaska & Hawaii statehood: they failed.

Riddick's Senate Procedure is unforgiving. If debate ends by error or rule violation, the bill goes to a vote.
2/5
Jan 11, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
232 years ago, in 1790, a simple majority could end any debate.

The current form of filibuster that Manchin is protecting—in which votes can't happen until 60 Senators agree—didn't exist until 1975. Hundreds of exceptions have been made to it, including one last month.

1/9 The filibuster arose by accident: in 1805, the Senate streamlined its rules at the urging of Aaron Burr. Nobody thought they were creating a vehicle for obstruction, and no one used it that way until 1837, after the Framers were dead.
2/9
 brookings.edu/testimonies/th…
Nov 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
I agree with the conclusion: the verdict probably won't be the product of rulings by Judge Schroeder, but rather [insert whatever you think drives the outcome here other than the judge].

Nonetheless, there have been some 'balls and strikes' issues here worth discussing.

/1 Despite what Justice Roberts says, SCOTUS isn't an umpire calling balls and strikes. They are MLB, deciding the rules of the game, who can own a team, and who can play.

But trial judges often are calling balls and strikes, and it can make a difference.

/2
Nov 11, 2021 • 7 tweets • 10 min read
Unfortunately, the bill to make parents give an "observed urine sample" based on anonymous reports passed the Pennsylvania House. Bizarrely, it's one of the fastest-moving bills in the General Assembly: in two weeks it passed two committees and the House floor.

/1 It's unclear who is even pushing for this bill, and no hearings have been held. Several organizations objected to it.

For the floor vote, at least some PA Dems did the right thing and voted no, like @jessicalbenham @AmenBrownPHL @RepDonnaBullock @RepBurgos @RepCephas
/2
Nov 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A couple notes:

1) The judge didn't have to entertain this. The defense lawyer obviously has no genuine basis—hence the "logarithm" and "AI"—he's just hoping to jam up the prosecutor's presentation. The judge could've said "do your homework and raise a real objection."

/1 2) We can dunk on all three for misunderstanding image scaling, but it shouldn't matter. As the prosecutor said, they've been zooming and cropping digital images the whole trial, and the defense has no genuine basis to suggest this is different. Judge could've denied on that.

/2
Oct 8, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Odd how this "only thread" wasn't recognized by the founding generation, rarely occurred until the 1880s, almost always failed before the 1950s (because it required actual continuous filibustering), and today uses a procedure invented in 1972 and modified repeatedly up to 2017. There's no honest way to look at the Constitution or the history of the Senate and say "the filibuster is the only thread we have in America to keep democracy alive and well." When Manchin was born, filibusters were a rare event limited to civil rights. getrevue.co/profile/maxken…
Sep 13, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Gah. Well, congrats to the headline-seeking researchers behind that VAERS / myocarditis study, they found the audience they were looking for!

But let's talk for a second about the study.

/1 VEARS is cool, just like FAERS is cool. It's a simple system for collecting adverse event reports from anywhere. Typically, these are used to flag events with disproportionate reporting frequency, which can then be analyzed with other methods that have validated medical data.

/2
Aug 27, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
The first page says: "The case has been thoroughly briefed before us—twice." That is untrue. The merits of the case have never been before SCOTUS. What they've had instead were two emergency motions on the "shadow docket" with minimal briefing and no oral argument.

/1 One problem with this emergency / "shadow docket" mode of deciding cases is the high likelihood of factual error, such as this.

The orderly distribution of rental assistance did not happen. The 6 conservative Justices simply assert, erroneously, the issue has "diminished."

/2
Aug 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Since you're having trouble @potus @CDCgov @PressSec:

The legal authority is 42 U.S.C. § 264(a).

See D.C. Circuit, No. 21-5093 (June 2, 2021)(affirming district court stay order); see also U.S. Supreme Court, No. 20A169 (June 29, 2021)(denying application to vacate stay).

/1 D.C. Circuit: cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/order…

SCOTUS: supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf…

FYI, Kavanaugh's concurrence is not the law. We can make predictions what SCOTUS *might* do, but predictions aren't the law. The law is what the majority did: refuse to vacate the D.C. Circuit's order.

/2
Jul 1, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
We need to clear up something about the Cosby case: the DA, Castor, was not trying to help the women Cosby raped.

The DA was trying to help Cosby defend the civil cases.

/1 Assume the DA did nothing at all. The civil cases proceed, Cosby takes the Fifth to avoid incriminating himself, the jury is instructed to draw an inference against him (see Baxter, 425 US 308), and, having no defense, Cosby likely gets walloped with gigantic verdicts.

/2
Jun 30, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Reminder: if you donate to Congressional campaigns, do so before midnight Wednesday (June 30), the end of the FEC quarter.

"Early donor" and "small donor" figures have a big influence on the direction of elections. Look upon these headlines, ye mighty—but don't despair.

🧵👇 I'm not paid or asked to do this, I just have the simple view that every Democrat running for Congress in 2022 is guaranteed to be better than every Republican. Let's start with two first-term Dems in states that the GOP will get to redistrict.
/2
Jun 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Billionaires, big banks, and hedge funds are flooded with cash but don't want to invest in productive businesses or pay taxes, so they're lobbying to have the government pay them to steal public lands so they can impose taxes on everyone else.

I'm not exaggerating.

🧵
/1 Here's $3.75 trillion in cash sitting in commercial banks. It could be lent out to people or businesses; they do not want to do that. They're "waiting for opportunities to invest at higher rates." There's a concern "human beings are getting paid more." "Overheating," they say.
/2