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Orwell2024 Profile picture
@orwell2022
Nov 12, 2021 • 14 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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1/ What is wrong in NL?

so many lockdowns
so many test for entry
so many school closures
so mutch fear
masking 1.5 years
teleworking 1.5 years
alcohol bans
months of curfew
police beating demonstrators
QR fundamentalism

and now this ??

Bottom figures: panic why? Image
2/ NL will now punish the unvaxxed with 2G to protect them.

Those are mainly below 35. The healthy young future of NL. Do you see how they need to be protected? Image
3/ Therefore the young and children need to "urgently" be vaccinated, although this data should make you wonder why. ImageImage
4/ But NL was rewarded for all this or not?

I fail to see it. I don't read news nor watch TV. I read data. That's my destiny as scientist. I fail to understand what people are thinking around me. Image
5/ But SWE must have failed totally?

Without lockdowns, everything should have collapsed. 10x deaths forecast!

I fail to see it. NL is worse.

2020 SWE (left) versus 2020 NL (right). Age adjusted mortality rate by age group.

15-64y top
65-74
75-84
85+ bottom Image
6/ NL: It was the worst pandemic since 100 years. We needed to lock down the children and the healthy to protect them. Is this plausible?

I fail to see it.

7/ But Sweden killed people. Their neighbours did much better. No they did not.

The neighbours like DNK need to ask themselves: why do "kill" people 3 years earlier on average? ImageImage
8/ But Finland. See above. 2 years worse life expectancy. You need to have people in the elderly bin in order to make the all age excess possible with the Simpson's illusion (btw. the reason for most panic). Even worse, use z-scores to compare countries.
ImageImage
9/ More on Finland:

10/ About z-scores



What is z-score? Does it have a unit? And any real meaning?
11/ But let's also look to the "holy land" of this new lockdown religion. USA. They must have done better?

No, Sweden outperformed everyone. Without radical measures. No masking. Not blaming children. Not depriving them from school. Not masking them. ImageImage
12/ But Portugal did the MOST stick measures, are 98% vaxxed, and finally did better was a remark from a Dutch gentleman. @Theunis48

He did not like being falsified.

They want lockdown. Are they (the old vaxxed) scared of children and young citizens?

ImageImage
13/ Related "pandemic of the unvaccinated" panic blog, and how MSM and politics fail in math.

Image
14/ Could this be an issue in NL?

left: NL population increase since 1970 in the 75+ group: 300%
right: ICU capacity NL since 1970: -50%

Could it be a problem? @hugodejonge Image

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More from @orwell2022

Orwell2024 Profile picture
Jul 8
1/ NL data. We now plot the total forcing 🔴, including the measured SSR and CO₂ contribution 🟢. The black curve ⚫ shows the temperature response, the blue curve 🔵 shows the upper physics estimate (dry Stefan–Boltzmann) for the expected temperature response. Image
2/ NL data. We now plot the total forcing 🔴, including the measured SSR and CO₂ contribution 🟢. The black curve ⚫ shows the temperature response, the blue curve 🔵 shows the upper physics estimate (dry Stefan–Boltzmann) for the expected temperature response. Image
3/ NL data. We now plot the total forcing 🔴, including the measured SSR and CO₂ contribution 🟢. The black curve ⚫ shows the temperature response, the blue curve 🔵 shows the upper physics estimate (dry Stefan–Boltzmann) for the expected temperature response. . Image
Read 7 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
Jul 1
1/ A famous @BerkeleyEarth paper found no rural–urban difference despite the well known UHI impacting most historical stations. How is this paradox possible?

They used MODIS=🚮. At 10 m Sentinel-2, their “rural” stations light up urban.

Examples 🟥=real estate👇 Image
2/ MODIS uses a binary classification with a high threshold to flip to “urban,” so many urban sites are labeled “rural.” That compares urban to urban. BE also uses fragmented records and a changing station ensemble = 🚮. Apply one basic filter—data must exist ≥9 months/year👇 Image
3/ Using a quantitative urbanization metric (with units) from S2-GHSL at ~2000× higher resolution, the curves split as expected. BE paper should have raised ALL red flags in peer review: no units, no Q criteria, no methods, implausible results. Yet it passed. Still no retraction. Image
Read 7 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
Mar 18
1/ Can you actually find a hockey stick in truly rural stations?
Not in a stitched statistical construct — in a real, coherent station record.
Here’s a tool to test it yourself.

Link below. Image
2/ This map shows all stations with 100 years of data and at least 9 valid months per year.
That leaves about 500

🌎 🌎

Stations are colored by the level of built-up area around the site. Click any station to view its details and temperature curve. orwell2024.github.io/builtmap/Image
3/ Low built-up ≠ high-quality station. It’s a mandatory condition, not a guarantee.

Switch to sat view and inspect the site closely— the problems often shows up immediately. Like here.
Coastal locations
commonly have this issue. Water makes them appear rural. They aren’t. Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
Jan 30
Spectacular model failure: the simulation is detached from reality.

MEASURED (MODIS): cooling.
ERA5 model: warming.

Same grid cell, same year but OPPOSITE trend?

If a “model” can’t even get the sign right it’s a full fledged GIGO failure. Worse than worthless. Image
Flagged this two years ago, and it’s still absurd.

Measured surface temperature (LST) is declining since 2000.

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/ist_cli…

ERA5 shows 2 m air warming. Wrong trend, same place, same period.

Worse: ERA5 “surface” proxy warms too. Misses LST too.!! x.com/orwell2022/sta…Image
Here’s the part that should make you stare:

ERA5 “2 m air” is derived from surface T.

So when LST is cooling ERA5 should follow the observed surface.

It doesn’t. The ERA5 surface proxy warms too.

Not a model of reality but a calculation of what they’d like reality to be. Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
Jan 26
1/ People use “reanalysis” as if it is thermometer data. It is NOT.
Reanalysis is a computer weather model.

So we test it: ERA5 vs USCRN on grid level. Result: cooler past, warmer present pivot in ERA5 vs stations. Model ❌

~1.5 °C 🔴 model error vs ground truth (measured 🔵) Image
2/ Maybe it works for Blackville — another of the few pristine hUSCRN sites.
Same model failure.

When a SW model disagrees with ground-truth HW thermometers at the grid level, nature isn’t wrong.
The model is. Image
3/ Another one.

HOLLY_SPRINGS__4_N

That’s a spectacular failure / bias of the model. Image
Read 16 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
Nov 13, 2025
1/ This brigheting since 1980 is known in prof. circles.

Here’s the data from Germany (Potsdam).

+15 W/m² 🌞since the 1980s. ✅

Yet the public narrative claims climate change/CO₂ (~+1.4 W/m² over the same period). ❌

The gap between evidence and narraitive is 10x....off. Image
2/ The analysis is already done. DWD and peer-reviewed literature.
It matches what we saw from JMA and KNMI raw data:
a +10–20 W/m² increase in surface solar radiation.

So the question:
How did they get away with knowing this and selling the story of ~1.4 W from CO₂ instead? Image
3/ What does the literature say?

“...dimming/brightening not only occurred when clouds are considered, but also under cloud-free conditions when cloud effects are absent.”

A remarkably way to say:
It’s not clouds. Not CO₂. Not climate. Pollution.

They’ve known for decades Image
Read 8 tweets

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