Thread by @RALee85

The Belarusian MoD announced that a joint battalion tactical group of Russian paratroopers and Belarusian SSO/SOF parachuted from Russian Il-76 aircraft at the the Gozhsky range in Belarus as a readiness check amidst the buildup near Belarus' border.
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The Gozhsky range is in northwestern Belarus near Grodno and the borders with both Lithuania and Poland. During Zapad, Russian and Belarusian paratroopers conducted airborne exercises at the Brestky range near Poland but with notice. This is certainly not a routine exercise. 2/

The press release states that the joint force will practice capturing and holding a bridgehead, as well as searching for and destroying sabotage/recon groups and illegal armed formations before returning to their permanent bases. 3/

Yesterday, Lukashenko suggested that Russian and Belarusian troops would help protect Belarus' borders. 4/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1458741572925894662

Russian and Belarusian VDV/SOF forces conducted a number of joint training exercises, including airborne and air assault, as part of the Zapad 2021 exercise in September. So they clearly don't need to conduct a readiness check for training purposes. 5/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1437483974763417604

Yesterday, Russia sent two Tu-160 strategic bombers to conduct a patrol over Belarus, which included simulating a bombing run over a Belarusian training range and an escort from Belarusian Su-30SM fighters. 6/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1458890433891811331

And two days ago, Russia sent two Tu-22M3 bombers to fly over Belarus. 7/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1458544525404688388

Looks as though we may see live-fire exercises at two Belarusian training ranges near the border with Poland. 8/

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1459120389318131715

Photo from the Belarusian MoD of the joint Russian-Belarusian airborne operation in northwestern Belarus. Of course, they could have conducted this exercise at another range far from Belarus' border with NATO members if this was just about training. 9/
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Meanwhile, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov are in Paris today for a meeting with their French counterparts. I'm sure they'll have much to discuss. 10/
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Photos of the joint Russian-Belarusian airborne exercise at the Gozhsky training area in northwestern Belarus. 11/
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Photos of the joint Russian-Belarusian airborne exercise at the Gozhsky training area in northwestern Belarus. 12/
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Meanwhile, two Belgian F-16 are being scrambled to meet two Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers that may fly near Dutch airspace. The bombers are currently being escorted by the Norwegian Air Force. 13/

https://twitter.com/Kon_Luchtmacht/status/1459128533192691714

Video of a Russian Il-76 aircraft taking off with Russian paratroopers who took part in today’s airborne exercise. 14/
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Video from today's Russian-Belarusian airborne exercise at the Gozhsky training area in northwestern Belarus. 15/
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Video of Sergei Shoigu and Sergei Lavrov in Paris today. 16/
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Sergie Shouigu during his meeting with French officials, "It is important to jointly analyze security problems in order to agree steps toward deescalating the situation in Europe and preventing incidents during military activities," 17/
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Two Russian paratroopers were killed while parachuting during the airborne exercise in Belarus. 18/
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The Belarusian MoD said that both paratroopers' parachutes failed because of a strong gust of wind and they didn't have time to deploy their reserves. 19/
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Video of today's joint Russian-Belarusian airborne exercise today at the Gozhsky training area in northwestern Belarus. 20/

The Russian MoD said the Russian paratroopers who took part in today's exercise are already headed back to Russia. 21/
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Another video of today's joint Russian-Belarusian airborne exercise today at the Gozhsky training area in northwestern Belarus. 22/
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Video showing the two Russian paratroopers colliding in the air, which caused their deaths. 23/
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Putin suggested the Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bomber flights over Belarus were routine and not associated with the migrant crisis but Russia's 1st Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN said they were in response to NATO's buildup. 24/
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Lukashenko said he needed several Iskander-M missile system battalions from Russia (he's not going to get them). 25/
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One of the two paratroopers killed during the airborne exercise in Belarus was Ruslan Smirnov, an officer from the spetsnaz company from one of the VDV’s divisions (presumably 76th). He previously served as a conscript with the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. 26/
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The other Russian paratrooper from the 175th Reconnaissance Battalion of the 76th Air Assault Division killed during the airborne exercise in Belarus last week was Tomas-Valdas Petrauskas. He previously served in the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade. 27/
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The Belarusian MoD said they launched a joint air patrol with Russian and Belarusian Su-30SM fighters. I wonder if this is with the Su-30SM fighters Russia deployed to Belarus' Baranovichi airfield as part of the combat training center in September. 28/
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Video of those Russian Su-30SM fighters deployed to Belarus in September. If this patrol was conducted with these fighters, it is pretty clear they have an operational role in Belarus, and aren't just there for training. 29/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1435999786029682688

And they did have an operational role during the Zapad exercise. 30/

The Belarusian MoD also said they would increase the number of fighter patrols in response to the increased number of foreign aircraft flights near their border. 31/
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The Belarusian MoD said Russian and Belarusian Su-30SM fighters conducted another joint patrol in Belarus. 32/
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Video from today’s joint Belarusian-Russian aerial patrol over Belarus with Su-30SM fighters. 33/
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Lukashenko said he would ask Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus if NATO deploys nuclear weapons in Poland. 34/
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Belarusian SOBR officers detained 11 people who made “offensive comments” about the death of the two Russian paratroopers during the joint airborne exercise in Belarus on November 12 on social media. 35/
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The Belarusian MoD said Russian and Belarusian fighters conducted another joint flight over Belarus. 36/
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Video of that joint air patrol over Belarus with Russian and Belarusian fighters. 37/
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The Belarusian MoD said Belarusian and Russian Su-30SM fighters conducted another joint patrol over Belarus. 38/
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The Russian MoD said two Tu-22M3 bombers conducted an aerial patrol over Belarus with an escort from Russian and Belarusian Su-30SM fighters. 39/

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Video of the two Russian Tu-22M3 bombers conducting an aerial patrol over Belarus with an escort from Russian and Belarusian Su-30SM fighters. 40/
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The Belarusian MoD said Belarusian and Russian fighters conducted another joint patrol over Belarus. 41/
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Putin said Russia and Belarus will conduct more joint exercises in early 2022. 42/
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Lavrov: "The updated Military Doctrine of the Union State...will undoubtedly be an important contribution to this. It takes full account of the significant changes in the politico-military situation in Eastern Europe in recent years." 43/
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Russian and Belarusian Su-30SM fighters conducted another joint aerial patrol over Belarus yesterday. 44/
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Alexander Lukashenko approved the concept for a joint Russian-Belarusian training exercise to be held in February along Belarus' southern and Western borders, adding to the tension near Ukraine. 45/
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https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1483083166600548352

I'm not sure if Russia would chose to invade from Belarus, but MLRS and artillery based in Belarus could strike targets along Ukraine's northern border, including outside Kyiv, with cheaper munitions. 47/

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1483127502679728146

And Russia could also deploy electronic warfare systems closer to Kyiv by deploying them into Belarus. 48/

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https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1483012862662565889

At a minimum, a large deployment of Russian forces in Belarus means that Kyiv would have to divert forces to protect from that direction. With the threat of an amphibious landing, they also have to defend the southern coast. That means fewer forces to defend the N/NE border. 50/

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https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1483134228611145728