So happy to see our article forthcoming at AEJ: Applied 🥳 This was the very first paper I ever worked on, quite a journey since we started collecting data in 2017 with @thomas_blncht and @lucas_chancel!
Here are five facts that we uncover about income inequality in 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸: 👇
1/ Income inequality has risen faster in Eastern Europe than in Western/Northern Europe, but in no European country have top incomes boomed quite as fast as in the US.
2/ This holds when looking not only at European countries, but also at the European continent as a whole. Within-state inequality explains 97% of ineq in the US, while within-country inequality explains 83% of ineq in Europe today.
3/ The US tax system is MORE progressive than European countries'.
This is because the personal income tax is about as progressive in the US as in Western Europe (and much more progressive than in Eastern Europe), while indirect taxes are much lower.
4/ As a result, despite lower transfers, the US tax-and-transfer system is MORE redistributive than that of any European country.
About 6% of the national income is transferred to the bottom 50% in the US, versus 4% in Sweden and 0% in Serbia.
5/ Although the US tax-and-transfer system is more progressive, it is not progressive enough to close the huge inequality gap between the two regions.
Predistribution, not redistribution, explains why Europe is less unequal than the US today, both in pretax and posttax terms.
If you want to know more about the paper and the dynamics of specific countries, the latest working paper version of the article can be found here! wid.world/document/why-i…
You can also visit our (slightly long) appendix, where we provide additional figures and detailed results on inequality and redistribution in the 38 European countries covered by the paper: wid.world/document/techn…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Global poverty is commonly measured by counting the number of people whose consumption falls below a given threshold.
This approach overlooks an enormous component of people’s economic well-being: public goods. 🧵
Existing measures of global poverty (e.g., World Bank) are based on household consumption = market value of all goods and services purchased by households.
These measures exclude public goods, since these goods are not bought on a market.
This has two implications.
First, it biases our knowledge of national differences in poverty.
5% of Indians are poor because of private health expenditure, compared to 0% of South Africans, largely thanks to public healthcare!
Yet South African public healthcare is valued in existing poverty stats as… 0.
How does redistribution vary over the course of development?
Has there been a convergence in tax-and-transfer systems?
We Matt Fisher-Post, we paint the first global picture of government redistribution since 1980.
5 stylized facts: 🧵
@voxeu @BaldwinRE cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
1/ Government redistribution always reduces inequality, but with large variations.
2/ Transfers are the dominant driver of redistribution: in most countries in the world, tax systems are flat or regressive.
Excited to present my job market paper!
Exploiting a unique microdatabase, I estimate that education accounts for:
1⃣ 50% of global economic growth since 1980
2⃣ 70% of growth for the world’s poorest 20%
3⃣ 50% of global gender inequality reduction
🔗 amory-gethin.fr/files/pdf/Geth…
The starting point is a new microdatabase representative of 95% of the world’s population, which I assemble by harmonizing surveys fielded in 150 countries around 2019. It provides comprehensive information on education, individual incomes, and other sociodemographics.
Starting from this database, I estimate what the world distribution of income would look like if education had not improved.
I develop tools for “distributional growth accounting,” incorporating imperfect substitution à la Goldin & Katz into the canonical growth decomposition.
Hugely excited to announce the publication of our article in @QJEHarvard!🤩 This paper is the outcome of a massive data collection effort that we started with @cmtneztt and @PikettyLeMonde in 2017.
A few takeaways on the evolution of political divides in Western democracies 👇
1/ The disconnection of income & educational divides. In the 1950s, left-wing parties were supported by both low-income & lower-educated voters. There has been a striking reversal of educational divides, leading to a separation between a "Brahmin left" and a "Merchant right".
2/ This fact holds across nearly all Western democracies, but with a few exceptions.
In 🇵🇹 and 🇮🇪, left-wing parties continue to be more "class-based"➡️no reversal of education cleavage.
In 🇺🇸, the Democratic Party does not find greater support among low-income voters anymore.
Can redistributive policies successfully foster inclusive growth in emerging economies?
With @aroopc82 and @Leo_Czajka, we shed new light on this question by studying the case of South Africa, one of the most unequal countries in the world.🧵👇
🔗tinyurl.com/y3p36hdf
This 🧵 is based on our new working paper, "Can Redistribution Keep Up with Inequality? Evidence from South Africa, 1993-2019".
Part of a broader project on inequality in 🇿🇦, including wealth inequality (tinyurl.com/kxmv8w2w) and wealth taxation (tinyurl.com/xuzb5shm).
South Africa is a particularly interesting case study to analyze the links between poverty, inequality and growth.
👉One of the most unequal countries in the world.
👉One of the countries that has the most invested in ambitious social programs since the 1990s.