Many restrictions now target the unvaxxed. Beyond public health arguments, a behavioral logic is increasingly used ("we need to pressure them!").

But be warned: This logic comes with great costs.

A 🧵 on almost 2 years of research on the societal impact of the pandemic. (1/10)
A pandemic is an excessively severe crisis. Beyond the health consequences, one of the main causalities is trust in the political system. We have tracked government support across countries. And it drops as the crisis unfolds:…. (2/10) Image
Our research shows that this decreasing trust is driven by feelings of fatigue, which again is driven by restrictions and the time that passes as the pandemic drags on and on and on: (3/10) Image
This fatigue is a facilitator of true radicalization:…. The psychological burden fuels hatred towards the system & support for political violence. Pandemic-specific terrorist plots have aldready been identified (…). (4/10) Image
Our research shows that those who are unvaccinated are those that are most likely to feel fatigued and those who in general trust the authorities the least:…. (5/10) Image
Accordingly, communicating restrictions as attempts to "force" the unvaccinated into compliance will strengthen those very sentiments that created suspicion of the vaccines in the first place: Fatigue and mistrust. (6/10)
This will be further accelerated by conflict between citizens themselves. Our research shows that those who themselves comply are likely to morally condemn those who are unvaccinated, especially if they personally fear infection: (7/10) Image
Behavioral pressure may succeed with the short-term mission of getting more people vaccinated. But the question is: What are the wider societal costs after the pandemic? Trust has been highlighted as key during this crisis. This strategy will decrease trust for some. (8/10)
The dilemma is real: A long period of restrictions for the vaxxed majority will also decrease their trust. And many will feel condemnation justified. But, alas, there is no quick fix. As waning vaccine immunity makes clear, we will struggle with this for some time. (9/10)
A pandemic is a total crisis. Beyond health concerns, managers need to deal with the economic and societal impact of the crisis. Part of the latter is to buffer eroding solidarity. In this regard, it is key to talk social conflict down, not up. (10/10)

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More from @M_B_Petersen

Dec 8, 2022
🚨Out in @Nature🚨

Across the world, we find substantial prejudice against those not vaccinated against COVID-19 with antipathy, stereotypes & support for exclusion from family & political rights:…

Unvaccinated themselves harbor little prejudice.

🧵 1/17
The unvaxxed have faced moralizing rhetoric from elites (…) & condemnation from other citizens (…). As result, the unvaxxed have felt pressured (…). 2/17
These dynamics may reflect anti-free-rider sentiments. Vaccination is a public good and prior research shows that, as result, the vaxxed are less generous towards those who opt out of vaccination (i.e., free-ride) (…). 3/17
Read 17 tweets
Nov 23, 2022
The @WHO feared that "pandemic fatigue" led to disregard of health advice

In @PNASNews, we show that fatigue had effects far beyond the health domain. It fueled mistrust, protest & conspiracy beliefs:…

A pandemic is far more than a health crisis.

🧵 1/14 Image
The concept of "fatigue" has been hotly debated as it was, e.g., used by the UK government to delay their 1st lockdown (…). Some argue it doesn't exist. Others that it cannot be disentangled from a mere lack of motivation. 2/14
We argue that "pandemic fatigue" is real & conceptualize it as emerging from the *costs of compliance*. It is not just a lack of motivation but the result of trying to comply (similar to "compassion fatigue" emerging from the costs of caring:…) 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Nov 2, 2022
Megafon truer @politologidk med sagsanlæg for at bruge allerede offentlige meningsmålinger.

@politologidk viser snittet af målinger. Dermed bliver vi alle - ganske gratis - bl.a. klogere på deres præcisionen.

Sagsanlægget er en skandale, som alle bør sige fra overfor. 🧵 1/5 Image
Meningsmålinger dækkes så massivt, at transparens og eftersyn er afgørende.

Forskning fra EU-afstemninger (…) viser fx at 1/3 af dækningen refererer til meningsmålinger & at vælgerne bekymrer sig om meningsmålingernes effekt på resultatet. 2/5 Image
Forskningen er ikke afklaret omkring de præcise effekter af meningsmålinger (…), blandt andet fordi de kan have en lang række modsatrettede effekter (👇) 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
Hvorfor er der så mange tvivlere ved dette valg?

Det er ikke nødvendigvis, fordi politik er blevet sværere eller vælgerne dummere.

Det kan handle om, at kampen om midten udvander partiernes nødvendige værdimæssige signaler til vælgerne.

🧵 #FV22 1/5
En af statskundskabens kæmper, Key, skrev for mere en 50 år siden:

“[I]n the large the electorate behaves about as rationally and responsibly as we would expect, given the clarity of the alternatives presented to it and the character of the information available to it” 2/5
Et eksempel fra min egen forskning er, at danske vælgere nemmere kan koble deres politiske værdier og et konkrete emne, hvis de kender relevante partiers positioner på emnet:… 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 13, 2022
Under #FV22 sætter borgerne "sundhed" over alle andre emner:…. Og for #dkpol er det svært ikke at love flere penge til at hjælpe de syge.

Hvorfor det - og hvem er det egentlig, som borgerne ønsker at hjælpe?

En 🧵 om moralpsykologi & sundhedspolitik. 1/6
Vores forskning viser, at det ikke kun er i DK, at folk ønsker flere penge til sundhed:…. Det gælder faktisk så godt som i alle lande. Hvor der er stor uenighed om arbejdsløshedsunderstøttelse, er der konsensus om vigtigheden af hjælpe til de syge. 2/6

I en lang række undersøgelser har vi vist, at sygdom aktiverer associationer relateret til uheld, mens arbejdsløshed i højere grad aktiverer associationer om noget selvforskyldt. Koblingen er så stærk, at den selv gælder på ubevidst niveau. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Oct 11, 2022

An epidemic requires measured interventions, given costs for well-being & economy. For this, info on public compliance is needed.

Here, we show that surveys are a cost-effective & privacy-preserving tool, outperforming mobility data:

🧵 1/8
The use of surveys for behavior insights has been promoted by the @WHO (…) & on the basis of prior epidemics (…). As an alternative, authorities & researchers have also heavily relied on mobility data:… 2/8
With mobility data, we rely on the good-will of private companies. Surveys provide a ‘citizen science’ alternative. But can we trust self-reports? Research suggests little social desirability (…) but there may be memory bias (…). 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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