Michael Bang Petersen Profile picture
Professor auditing the state and challenges of democracy in the 21st century in @Magtudredningen with a focus on online hostility, distrust & crisis politics.
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Feb 8 12 tweets 4 min read
🚨NEW PAPER🚨

Which societal conditions breed online hostility?

We surveyed experiences of victims in 30 countries across the world (N=15,202) to show that political & economic inequality drive global differences in abuse on online platforms:

🧵 1/12 osf.io/preprints/psya…
Image Our preregistered study show that experiences of being a victim to online hostility vary widely. West Europeans experience political hostility less than once a month but hostility is much higher in other parts of the world. 2/12 Image
Jan 17 7 tweets 3 min read
“The unvaccinated, I really want to piss them off. And so, we’re going to continue doing so, until the end. That’s the strategy,” said Macron during the COVID-19 pandemic

In a new article, we show the risks of such moralized cost-imposition:

🧵 1/7 doi.org/10.1111/1475-6…
Image Similar, but less strong, rethoric was used by the Danish primeminister during a press conference on Nov 8, 2021.

During the time, we collected daily representative surveys of trust in the response etc. in the @HopeProject_dk. 2/7
Sep 7, 2023 18 tweets 7 min read
I was asked by the board of the Danish National Research Foundation, @GrundforskFond, to give a talk at their annual meeting.

They asked me to talk under the theme: "Preprints"

Here is what I said 👇

🧵 1/18 Image @GrundforskFond A key challenge facing the dissemination of knowledge is delays in publication ().

The social sciences are hard hit. 18 months from submission to publication in Economics & this is only *if* the paper is accepted in that journal. 2/18 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Image
Aug 12, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
Klimaministeren bruger befolkningen som undskyldning for ikke at handle ift. klimaforandringer:

Det afspejler manglende viden om både befolkningen og om egen rolle som politiker.

🧵 1/8dr.dk/nyheder/politi… Borgerne tager klimaforandringer dybt alvorligt. Seneste Klimabarometer fra @concitoinfo viser:

- 88 % mener at klimaforandringer er "meget" eller "i nogen grad" alvorlige
- 72 % af befolkningen mener, at partierne bør gør mere ift. klimaet

() 2/8concito.dk/files/media/do…
May 28, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
The Danish government has appointed me to direct a 5-year audit of Danish democracy in the 21st century: ufm.dk/aktuelt/presse…

Political scientists can think of Dahl's classic, "Who Governs?", but for an entire country. It is a monumental research challenge.

🧵 1/5 Parliament-initiated studies of power & democracy constitute a Scandinavian tradition. The last Danish study ended in 2003. In the following year Facebook was launched & fundamental societal changes have happened since. 2/5
May 28, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read
Jeg er blevet udnævnt som leder af den nye magtudredning: ufm.dk/aktuelt/presse…

Det er en monumental opgave, som går igang nu.

I denne tråd skitserer jeg det, der ligger forude, og nogle af de udfordringer, som demokratiet står foran i det 21. århundrede.

🧵 1/14 Magtudredninger er en særlig skandinavisk tradition, hvor parlamentet beder uafhængige forskere om at vurdere om de - og andre magtaktører - lever op til demokratiets idealer og udstyrer forskerne med væsentlige ressourcer til den opgave. 2/14
Apr 14, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
According to new research, 26.2 % of US voters visited 1 or more misinformation websites during the 2020 US election: nature.com/articles/s4156…

But some visited many & most just a few

This has important implications for our understanding of 'the misinformation problem'

🧵 1/6 The key finding to me is that - among those exposed to one or more untrustworthy websites - the average number of visits was 22.8.

This suggests that a few visited MANY websites and most probably just 1.

2/6
Mar 24, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
"Truth is 1st casualty of war"

Indeed, our new research shows that misinformation is believed & shared more in conflicts: doi.org/10.1371/journa…

Our case is tragically relevant: Ukraine & conflict between Russia & EU. This conflict can fuel falsehood - on both sides.

🧵 1/8 Our study was conducted among 1,615 Ukrainians prior to Russia's current invasion.

We assessed how Ukrainians perception of a conflict between Ukraine & Russia shaped their motivations to believe & share false denigrating news stories. 2/8
Feb 20, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
The take-home message from the debate on Bing AI is not how easily AI now passes the Turing Test.

It is how easily *we* fail it: Falsely perceiving AI as human conscious intelligence.

The reason is a well-established psychological effect: Hyperactive agency detection.

🧵 1/5 The concept of hyperactive agency detection was coined in 2003 to describe how we ascribe intentions to the movements of simple geometric shapes: brill.com/view/journals/… 2/5
Feb 19, 2023 17 tweets 7 min read
🚨OUT NOW🚨

"Some men just want to watch the world burn", said Alfred about the Joker. Do you feel this is true in politics too?

In @apsrjournal, we provide evidence of a "Need for Chaos" in the US electorate & dissect its causes & consequences: doi.org/10.1017/S00030…

🧵 1/17 Partisan polarization is often seen as the core of US political instability (& associated perils such as misinformation). But the US also face greater inequality & exclusionary processes. As such, many may feel abandoned not by one party but by the *entire* political system. 2/17 https://inequality.org/research/growing-apart-political-hist
Feb 16, 2023 26 tweets 11 min read
How did COVID-19 polarize societies across the world?

In @HopeProject_dk, we began our research on the societal impact of the pandemic in March 2020.

After 3 years of research & 500.000+ interviews, it is now possible to write the 3 act story of pandemic polarization.

🧵 1/26 Let me set the scene as the pandemic hit.

The Western world were already growning less stable. Economic inequality - a driver of instability (journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…) - was rising. Psychologically, inequality breeds distrust in core institutions (psyarxiv.com/6m4ts/). 2/26
Dec 8, 2022 17 tweets 7 min read
🚨Out in @Nature🚨

Across the world, we find substantial prejudice against those not vaccinated against COVID-19 with antipathy, stereotypes & support for exclusion from family & political rights: nature.com/articles/s4158…

Unvaccinated themselves harbor little prejudice.

🧵 1/17 The unvaxxed have faced moralizing rhetoric from elites (politico.eu/article/french…) & condemnation from other citizens (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…). As result, the unvaxxed have felt pressured (nature.com/articles/s4156…). 2/17
Nov 23, 2022 14 tweets 6 min read
The @WHO feared that "pandemic fatigue" led to disregard of health advice

In @PNASNews, we show that fatigue had effects far beyond the health domain. It fueled mistrust, protest & conspiracy beliefs: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

A pandemic is far more than a health crisis.

🧵 1/14 Image The concept of "fatigue" has been hotly debated as it was, e.g., used by the UK government to delay their 1st lockdown (frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…). Some argue it doesn't exist. Others that it cannot be disentangled from a mere lack of motivation. 2/14
Nov 2, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
Megafon truer @politologidk med sagsanlæg for at bruge allerede offentlige meningsmålinger.

@politologidk viser snittet af målinger. Dermed bliver vi alle - ganske gratis - bl.a. klogere på deres præcisionen.

Sagsanlægget er en skandale, som alle bør sige fra overfor. 🧵 1/5 Image Meningsmålinger dækkes så massivt, at transparens og eftersyn er afgørende.

Forskning fra EU-afstemninger (doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/…) viser fx at 1/3 af dækningen refererer til meningsmålinger & at vælgerne bekymrer sig om meningsmålingernes effekt på resultatet. 2/5 Image
Nov 1, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Hvorfor er der så mange tvivlere ved dette valg?

Det er ikke nødvendigvis, fordi politik er blevet sværere eller vælgerne dummere.

Det kan handle om, at kampen om midten udvander partiernes nødvendige værdimæssige signaler til vælgerne.

🧵 #FV22 1/5 En af statskundskabens kæmper, Key, skrev for mere en 50 år siden:

“[I]n the large the electorate behaves about as rationally and responsibly as we would expect, given the clarity of the alternatives presented to it and the character of the information available to it” 2/5
Oct 13, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Under #FV22 sætter borgerne "sundhed" over alle andre emner: nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2022-1…. Og for #dkpol er det svært ikke at love flere penge til at hjælpe de syge.

Hvorfor det - og hvem er det egentlig, som borgerne ønsker at hjælpe?

En 🧵 om moralpsykologi & sundhedspolitik. 1/6 Vores forskning viser, at det ikke kun er i DK, at folk ønsker flere penge til sundhed: doi.org/10.1111/ajps.1…. Det gælder faktisk så godt som i alle lande. Hvor der er stor uenighed om arbejdsløshedsunderstøttelse, er der konsensus om vigtigheden af hjælpe til de syge. 2/6
Oct 11, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
🚨PREPRINT🚨

An epidemic requires measured interventions, given costs for well-being & economy. For this, info on public compliance is needed.

Here, we show that surveys are a cost-effective & privacy-preserving tool, outperforming mobility data: arxiv.org/abs/2210.01472

🧵 1/8 The use of surveys for behavior insights has been promoted by the @WHO (apps.who.int/iris/bitstream…) & on the basis of prior epidemics (academic.oup.com/cid/article/40…). As an alternative, authorities & researchers have also heavily relied on mobility data: science.org/doi/full/10.11… 2/8
Oct 9, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
I dag rejser @ProfJLundgren en vigtig debat om det faglige grundlag for mink-aflivningen i #dkmedier: politiken.dk/viden/Viden/ar…

Jeg kan se, at nogle kalder det "bagklogskab". Men Jens (og jeg) sagde det allerede i november 2020: berlingske.dk/kommentatorer/…

🧵(1/4) Den faglige debat er på mange måder gledet ud af offentlighedens fokus, fordi Mink-kommissionen alene blev bedt om at fokusere på (u)lovligheden af beslutningen. Men det er altså - og har hele tiden været - en sag med flere lag.

(2/4)
Sep 30, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
I dag blev sidste Detektor-program sendt. Til nytår skæres Orientering & Deadline.

Skader det den demokratiske samtale?

"Nej", tænker du, "de programmer er for en snæver kreds, som kan få andre nyheder. Demokrati handler om bredden."

Men forskningen siger noget andet.

🧵 1/9 Man kan nemt tro, at journalistik skal nå bredt ud for at kvalificere den demokratiske samtale. Men det er forkert. Og for at forstå hvorfor, så må vi først erkende at langt de fleste er utroligt uinteresserede i politik. 2/9
Sep 29, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read
Påvirker truslen fra Rusland vælgernes vurdering af politikerne?

Dét spørgsmål undersøgte vi i 2015: doi.org/10.1111/ajps.1…

Når Rusland truer DK, ser vælgerne det som positivt fremfor negativt, hvis politikere har en dominerende - magtfuldkommen, om man vil - personlighed.

🧵 I undersøgelsen deltog 1.500 danskere. Undersøgelse foregik over 3 runder. Runde 2 & runde 3 lå hhv. 7 og 27 dage efter runde 1. I 1. runde blev de præsenteret for en person, som de fik at vide var politiker. I runde 2 opstod en krise i DK. Og i runde 3 var krisen overstået.
Sep 25, 2022 12 tweets 2 min read
S vil skære SAM- og HUM-kandidatuddannelser fra 2 til 1 år & øge antallet af undervisningstimer på det ene år. 1 år med flere timer er lige så godt som 2 år med færre timer, lyder argumentet.

Hermed nogle åbne refleksioner om det argument.

🧵 1/12 Som underviser på statskundskab uddanner vi bl.a. til embedsmandsværket.

Med de udfordringer, som samfundet står overfor, har vi brug for embedsmænd, der kan fordybe sig i primærkilder af høj kompleksitet. Det kræver træning - og den foregår over mange timer på læsesalen. 2/12