Brian Stoffel Profile picture
Nov 15, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Market Crashes are Scary 😱

They don't have to be 😌

Here are four actionable steps to transform them
1⃣
2⃣
3⃣
4⃣

A mini-thread⤵️
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

If you're around long enough, bad stuff WILL happen.

Our example: Russian Roulette

If you play one round, you have a 83% chance of survival (five empty chambers of six)

But if you agree to five rounds, you only have 40% chance of living
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

Let's apply to investing: a 30% drop in market occurs ~once per decade.

Odds of NO 30% drop in one year = 90%

But if you invest for 30 years (as many do), *at least* one such drop is guaranteed. This uses same math as above, but with 9➗10
Have you accepted that now?

Good, time to work on

2⃣ Emotional Preparation

Everyone says, "I can buy high and sell low"

But when you're LIVING IN IT. It's a different story.

Here's what the headlines (1987, 2008, 2020) look like
The balm for that FEAR?

1) Having No high-interest debt
2) Having emergency savings
3) Remembering what those investments are for.

And then, study what the market did over the next five years (and in case of March 2020, took a few months)
If you can accept that BAD THINGS will happen -- and that YOU'LL BE OK -- you can move on:

3⃣ Financial Preparation

As @nntaleb has taught, if you are the only one with cash when sh*#! hits the fan, you can be ANTI-FRAGILE

@morganhousel developed a plan for how to do this
3⃣ Financial Preparation

He even went back to show the power of having that optionality between 2004 and 2012.

To be clear, he (and I) am not saying to do this with ALL of your money. Just set some aside for the opportunity.
But even if you have:

1⃣Accepted that crashes will happen
2⃣Researched the benefits to staying invested when they do

And

3⃣ Have a plan for capitalizing on them...

I have bad news.

YOU'RE STILL HUMAN. AND IT'S SCARY

So you need to:

4⃣ Set up some guard-rails
Don't underestimate the power of :

* Establishing a cool-down period
* Becoming a part of a supportive investing community (H/T @themotleyfool)
* Putting up visual reminders that stock market moves should have little effect on how you live today
I have no idea when the next crash will be, but @BrianFeroldi are interested in helping make sure it's not scary.

We've made an easy-to-digest video on just this topic:

If you like it, subscribe to our channel.

We put out 3-4 FREE videos every week in the hopes of spreading financial wellness and helping people to live whole-hearted lives

youtube.com/brianferoldiyt…
To review. To prepare for a market crash:

1⃣ (INTELLECTUAL) Accept it will happen
2⃣ (EMOTIONAL) If you stay invested, you won't be harmed
3⃣ (FINANCIAL) If you have a plan, you can actually get stronger
4⃣ (GUARD RAILS) But put some structures in place in case you're wrong

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More from @Brian_Stoffel_

Jun 27
The last month of owning Celsius stock...

Explained simply $CELH 👇
The company hit a peak on May 24th at ~$95 Image
Using a Reverse Discounted Cash Flow Analysis with:

🟡2% Terminal Growth Rate (Modest)
🟡 10% Discount Rate (Modest)
🟢 25% FCF Margin (Aggressive)

Here's what was priced into the stock on that date Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 23
How expensive is $NVDA really?

The answer might surprise you👇
Of course, we could look at common multiples:

🔵 Price / Free Cash Flow (trailing): 82
🟢 Price / Free Cash Flow (forward): 52

Those aren't obscene, but they are one of many data points. Image
My favorite tool: Optimized reverse discounted cash flow (rDCF)

First, we ask ourselves:

What's a reasonable FCF margin for $NVDA over the next 10 years?

I'll be super bullish and say 35%

- That's below where it is now
- Well above its averageImage
Read 8 tweets
May 24
Last week, I bought you the four stocks DUMPED from The Antifragile Portfolio.

This week, the four stocks BOUGHT in The Antifragile Portfolio👇
You might be wondering: "Why should I care?"

That's a fair question.

Below are the returns of The Antifragile Portfolio since the end of 2014 vs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.Image
1) Tesla $TSLA

It's not a *full* core position in the portfolio, but it felt like the right time to add based on the valuation and potential optionality. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 21
Everything changed on November 30, 2022

The changes have come in two waves.

But Wave #3 might surface tomorrow...👇
What was the big change?

ChatGPT was released.

And AI became the buzzword on every conference call.

The first winner was obvious
Wave #1: Semiconductors

Look at what happened to $NVDA's growth rate for GPUs used in Data Centers.

That growth could continue, but the conclusion is clear: the wave has already started. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 17
The Antifragile Portfolio has made 4 major SELLS recently

The stocks I've dumped👇
The Context:

I want stocks with:

1️⃣ A Wide Moat: Veeva's Moat is a MILE-WIDE
2️⃣ Optionality: Here's the problem👇

For years, Vault came out with new products that were gobbled up. I have the feeling we've reached saturation, but the stock trades like it hasn't. Image
The Context:

Workplace Collaboration competition is RED HOT ( $GTLB, $MNDY, $ASAN -- to name a few)

The big problem: These other companies offer *much* more transparency with regards to net dollar retention and other such metrics.

Without them, $TEAM just doesn't make the cut Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 29
April 6th

I said: " $TSLA is cheap!"

It's up 37% in the last week alone!

Is it still cheap?

My answer⤵️
First, we need to take into consideration that free cash flow is plunging.

Inventory is up (a very bad sign for a vertically integrated company)

And spending on AI has been huge. Image
Using $1.4 Billion as trailing free cash flow...

FCF needs to grow 53% moving forward

🤯🤯 That's INSANE 🤯🤯

But there's a saving grace...⤵️ Image
Read 9 tweets

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