Brian Stoffel Profile picture
Professional Mission: minimize finances as an obstacle to whole-hearted living DM open Copy of the Antifragile Framework 👉 https://t.co/SjAR207yEo
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1 Dec
In 2008, I found @themotleyfool
In 2010, my wife and I retired from teaching

We rolled over our 403(b)s

➡️Balance on 12/31/11 = $31,352
➡️Balance this morning = $310,717

📈That's 891% in ~ 10 years (26% annually)

How I did it, and what I own now⤵️
Holdings from ALL accounts (ex-cash)

1) $SHOP ~18% of portfolio, combined returns 2,600%
2) $MDB 7%, 550%
3) $MELI 7%, 700%
4) $CRWD 7%, 550%
5) $SE 6%, 100%
6) $DDOG 6%, 400%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $AXON 5%, 500%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $U 5%, 100%
11) $VEEV 4%, 700%

Con't
12) $GOOG 4%, 700%
13) $ABNB 3%, 10%
14) $ISRG 3%, 800%
15) $DOCU 3%, 10%
16) $PAYC 3%, 850%
17) $SNOW 2%, 25%
18) $GBTC 1%, 750%
19) $ZEN 1%, 300%
20) $TSLA 1%, 100%
21) $PATH 1%, (5%)
22) $PUBM 1%, 30%
23) $ZM 1%, (15%)
24) $SEMR <1%, (10%)
25) $RSKD <1%, (75%)

HOW I DID IT⤵️
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov
Over the past decade, I've been blessed with:

✅27% annualized returns
📈That's roughly 1,000% total

One of the keys behind those results: Looking for something that's often ignored by analysts...⤵️
OPTIONALITY

The practice of TESTING out a new product or service in an effort to fulfill its mission.

🔴If it doesn't work, it's no big deal -- it was just a test.
🟢If it does work, it's a game-changer.

Critically, the company already needs a wide-moat rev stream to count on
No company is a better example of this than AMAZON $AMZN

In 1999, books and music were the wide moat business. It decided to test:

🔴Amazon Auction (failed)
🟢3rd Party Merchants (huge success)
Read 9 tweets
22 Nov
Admitting your mistakes as an investor is crucial. It makes you:

✅Accountable
✅A better investor.

In that light, when @BrianFeroldi and I reviewed Peloton in June 2021, I liked it so much that I bought shares.

Since then, it dove 60%.

$PTON

Here's what I'm doing⤵️
First, I need to REVIEW MY REASONS FOR BUYING

Because of our YouTube channel, this is pretty easy. Can just pull up the results of my framework, and immediately make changes to the OBJECTIVE variables
Right off the bat, I know there's NO meaningful change to:

1⃣ Concentration Risk
2⃣ Glassdoor Reviews
3⃣ Founder's Role
4⃣ Insider Ownership

🔴Finances, however, changed a ton -- which lowered the company's score to a 9 overall
Read 12 tweets
15 Nov
Market Crashes are Scary 😱

They don't have to be 😌

Here are four actionable steps to transform them
1⃣
2⃣
3⃣
4⃣

A mini-thread⤵️
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

If you're around long enough, bad stuff WILL happen.

Our example: Russian Roulette

If you play one round, you have a 83% chance of survival (five empty chambers of six)

But if you agree to five rounds, you only have 40% chance of living
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

Let's apply to investing: a 30% drop in market occurs ~once per decade.

Odds of NO 30% drop in one year = 90%

But if you invest for 30 years (as many do), *at least* one such drop is guaranteed. This uses same math as above, but with 9➗10
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
In 2010, wife & I quit teaching. Rolled over 403(b)s

Those accounts have grown:

✅27% annually
📈That's 910% total.

This isn't to brag, it's to be accountable for my @themotleyfool writing and my YouTube channel with @BrianFeroldi

How we did it & my portfolio today ⤵️
As @nntaleb says, "Don't tell me what you believe, SHOW me your portfolio."

Actions > Words

So here it is, excluding cash, as of the start of November.

Since 1/1/12: 910% returns
Since 1/1/17: 625%
Since 1/1/19: 360%
Since 1/1/2020: 183%
YTD: 24%

The portfolio⤵️
1) $SHOP 16% of port. (~2,500% combined returns)
2) $MELI 8% (900%)
3) $CRWD 8% (350%)
4) $SE 7% (150%)
5) $MDB 7% (600%)
6) $TEAM 6% (300%)
7) $DDOG 5% (350%)
8) $AXON 5% (500%)
9) $VEEV 5% (800%)
10) $AMZN 5% (1,700%)
11) $GOOG 4% (800%)
12) $U 4% (65%)
⤵️
Read 8 tweets
19 Oct
Nassim Taleb's @nntaleb work has adjusted my MINDSET to always consider his worldview.

My favorite book = ANTIFRAGILE

There are lots of heuristics I've developed from the book, but ONE stands out for its

✅Counter-intuitiveness
✅Real-World Applications

🧵⤵️
That is:

Given two choices, ALWAYS favor the one with:

😡Known Downside & Unknown Upside

OVER

😻Known Upside & Unknown Downside

The applicability in Life and Investing is under-appreciated...yet vast
And if you understand Anti-Fragility, it makes sense.

Something must have known (and acceptable) downside to stand the test of time. It must also *at least* have exposure to upside.

But no matter how great the upside is, if the downside leads to RUIN, it isn't worth it
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
In 2017, I made my first purchase of a company that is now my largest holding.

First ten shares cost ~$430.

Today, those same shares are worth ~$13,500

That's a 32X return in just four years!

Here's the stock, and three more I'm putting $$ into in search of similar results ⤵️
The company was Shopify.
$SHOP

I used my Antifragile Framework to double-check my conviction of the company.

The understanding of $SHOP from the framework even led me to buy more after a short-report a few months later

fool.com/investing/2017…
Using EXACT SAME framework, I've identified three more companies with similar potential.

The first is Axon Enterprise $AXON (already a 9-bagger for me)

Maker of TASERS, Axon body cameras & (most importantly) software solutions for police.

More on $AXON fool.com/investing/2021…
Read 9 tweets
4 Oct
I started investing ~ 10 years ago.

👨‍🏫Rolled over my 403(b) from teaching
📈Started investing it.

Since then, I've averaged 25% returns per year.

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* A huge bull market
* A framework I devised to help

My portfolio as of 10/3/21 ⤵️
1) $SHOP, 15% of port, +2,300% combined returns
2) $MELI 9%, +1,000%
3) $CRWD 7%, +300%
4) $SE 7%, +130%
5) $MDB 7%, +500%
6) $AXON 6%, +500%
7) $TEAM 6%, +220%
8) $DDOG 5%, +300%
9) $AMZN 5%, +1,600%
10) $VEEV 4%, +750%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, +700%
12) $U 4%, +40%

Continued ⤵️
13) $ABNB 3%, +10%
14) $ISRG 3%, +800%
15) $PAYC 3%, +1,000%
16) $DOCU 3%, +15%
17) $ETSY 2%, +300%
18) $SNOW 2%, +10%
19) $ZEN 1%, +350%
20) $PTON 1%, (30%)
21) $GBTC 1%, +600%
22) $ZM 1%, +7%
23) $TSLA 1%, 30%
24) $RSKD 1% (40%)

The MOST IMPORTANT aspect of each one is ...⤵️
Read 9 tweets
2 Sep
I started investing ~ 10 years ago. I've been able to achieve 26% returns *per year*

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* The combined teachings of @DavidGFool and @nntaleb (Antifragile)
* Sharing my holdings to be accountable.

My current port as of 9/1/21 ⤵️
(all Ex-cash)

1) $SHOP 17% of port, 2,600% return
2) $MELI 10%, 1,200%
3) $CRWD 7%, 350%
4) $SE 7%, 150%
5) $AXON 5%, 520%
6) $MDB 5%, 420%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $VEEV 5%, 900%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $DDOG 4%, 270%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, 750%
12) $U 3%, 40%
13) $ISRG 3%, 860%
con't
14) $DOCU 3%, 34%
15) $ABNB 3%, 0%
16) $PAYC 3%, 960%
17) $ETSY 2%, 340%
18) $SNOW 2%, 10%
19) $ZEN 2%, 385%
20) $PTON 1%, (16%)
21) $GBTC 1%, 600%
22) $ZM 1%, 16%
23) $TSLA 1%, 22%

Waiting (trading rules) to make some changes previously announced here.
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug
In 2011, wife & I quit teaching, rolled over 403(b)’s.

Since then:

💰Never earned more $$ than 2010.
🏠Bought House
👩‍👩‍👧‍👦Started family

BUT, also since then...

Our roll-overs have 10-BAGGED

Surprising lessons on how we did it 🧵
1/ It wasn’t a straight line.

2012=9% returns
2013=28%
2014=(4%)
2015=(2%)
2016=0%

From 2011 to 2016 (FIVE YEARS), entire rollover was up only 30%

Annualized = 5%

S&P 500 during that time = 12% *per year*
2/ In 2016, two things changed.

@DavidGFool asked me to vote on a @themotleyfool service for stocks
I read @nntaleb’s ANTIFRAGILE

I needed a framework to intelligently vote for @DavidGFool’s service, and @nntaleb’s work provided that.

I started working on the framework
Read 18 tweets
4 Aug
Five years ago, after reading @nntaleb's *Antifragile*, I developed a framework for identifying Antifragile companies.

In the past three months, @BrianFeroldi and I have put 23 different companies through that framework.

Here's how they scored, a 🧵⤵️
A quick caveat:

Before 2020, 7 companies had been defined as "Antifragile". Since Jan 1, 2020:

* All 7 have beaten the S&P 500's 41% returns
* The average return is 150% (+109 points)

Why this matters: 2020 was the first "chaos" to measure anti-fragility at scale.
One more caveat:

* A low score doesn't = BAD INVESTMENT. There are tons of false negative.

I'm willing to accept that, because (historically)

* A high score has always = market-beating performance

Keep that in mind, as we go through the three levels.
Read 11 tweets
25 Jun
The 9 Most Anti-Fragile Companies I've Evaluated

(That are still under $100 billion)
Largest to smallest, those 9 are:

1) Airbnb $ABNB - $94 B
2) Mercadolibre $MELI - $77 B
3) Atlassian $TEAM - $67 B
4) CrowdStrike $CRWD - $58 B
5) DocuSign $DOCU - $54 B
6) Peloton $PTON - $37 B
7) Datadog $DDOG - $33 B
8) Unity $U - $32 B
9) Axon $AXON - $11 B
Seven of these companies have been public since January 2020 -- capturing the chaos of the pandemic that "Antifragility" is built for.

Their average returns: 230%
The S&P 500's: 32%

What do all of these companies have in common?

8 things👇
Read 14 tweets
22 Jun
14 Books That Changed My Life 📘

(and what I learned from each of them)
1/

The *Ishmael* series by Daniel Quinn (@Read_Ishmael)

* We were optimized for hunting/gathering
* The way we live is evolutionarily odd
* Every culture has a story, but few identify the story they're enacting.

Also, *Story of B* and *My Ishmael*

amazon.com/Ishmael-Novel-…
2/

The Incerto by Nassim Taleb (@nntaleb)

* Randomness over power of stories (Fooled by Randomness)
* 1% of inputs = 99% of output (Black Swan)
* How to be thrive in uncertainty (Antifragile)
* No opinions without risk of loss (Skin in The Game)

amazon.com/Incerto-Fooled…
Read 19 tweets
15 Jun
There are lots of ways to "win" as investor.

Focusing on valuation is one of them. But you have to be really:
* Smart
* Willing to put in lots of work
* Aware of what market is doing daily

My approach:

I PAY ZERO ATTENTION TO VALUATION.

It's worked. The proof & thinking 👇
What I look for are ANTIFRAGILE companies.

They all:

* Use the Barbell Method (Mission, Moat, Optionality)
* Have Financial Fortitude (Balance Sheet, no Concentration)
* Have Skin in the Game (Founder, Ownership, Glassdoor)

If they have these 3, I don't worry about valuation
The basic idea:

When chaos hits, ppl in real world don't care about valuation of a stock.

* Schools: $ZM will help us with COVID (no one cares about stock price)

* Citizens: Our police need to use $AXON (no one cares about stock price).

Some real examples from my port
Read 14 tweets
12 Jun
Last week, I talked about the Antifragile Framework for investing.

The biggest question, by far: What about VALUATION?

It's not in the framework.

But before I explain why, there are 6 things you need to know about ANTIFRAGILITY and PREDICTING the future. A 🧵
1/

We often take what's recently happened, and project that into the future without end.

That makes sense. 99.9% of the time, you'll be right.

The same was true for our ancestors. NOT doing this would have led to extinction as hunter-gatherers
2/
But 0.1% of the time, you'll be wrong. (Black Swans)

Imagine how WRONG your predictions would've been on:

* October 23, 1929 (Black Thursday)
* December 6, 1945 (Pearl Harbor)
* Summer 1990 (Fall of USSR)
* September 10, 2001 (9/11)
* New Year's Day 2020 (COVID)
Read 12 tweets
8 Jun
Six years ago, I read @nntaleb's *Antifragile*. The lessons invaded my brain and haven't left since.

I started taking the ideas and applying to investing.

I created a framework for stock picking from it. It has 8 parts

It has roughly 4X'd the market.

How it works, a 🧵⤵️
Before I tell you those eight, a quick note on what Antifragility is.

According to Taleb, the world can be broken into 3 parts:

*FRAGILE: breaks under pressure
*ROBUST: stays same under pressure
*ANTIFRAGILE: gets stronger under pressure (up to point)
1/

MISSION STATEMENT:

With a good one, a company can respond to chaos and become stronger.

The best ones are:

* Simple: Employees can ask: does this fulfill the mission?

* Optionable: Lots of ways to fulfill it

* Inspirational: Serving higher purpose

My fav: Axon $AAXN
Read 15 tweets
11 Apr 18
1/ This is a stretch, but it's something I keep coming back to when brilliant (@nntaleb) and popular (@sapinker) collide. The recent @WSJ piece does a brilliant job of highlighting the difference between *Skepticism* and *Enlightenment*.

Key passage wsj.com/articles/the-d…
2/ In the end, @yhazony isn't saying we should shun all "progress", but that we need to move slowly, and locally, to make sure that we don't cause *more* damage in our pursuit of *progress* because we don't fully understand the benefits of traditions.
3/ Reminds me of re-telling of Adam and Eve in @_Daniel_Quinn's Ishmael.

The context: Narrator believes agriculture ushered in a new way of living. It pitted Modern (Agricultural) humans against indigenous peoples.

In effect: The Bible = Story to justify agriculture
Read 8 tweets