22.6% return YTD.

~25% in cash.

Only 12 stocks.

No options. No leverage. No fancy tricks.

Here’s exactly how it’s working—and what it means for your own strategy: 🧵 Just to dispel any rumors, this 22.6% is NOT because I'm matching the market.

I've WAY ahead of the major indices

It has become MUCH more difficult for some Enterprise SaaS companies to grow their client list.

Consider $DDOG

In 2022, the payback period for a new customer was 19 months

In 2023, it was 23 months

Last year, it was 47 months! Or how about $SNOW

In 2022, payback period = 42 months
In 2023, 48 months
In 2024, 52 months

SaaS stocks used to be the cornerstone of my portfolio.

Not anymore.

I just cut ties with yet another.

Which one, and why? 👇 The stock: DataDog (DDOG)

🟢The good news: I earned market-beating returns.

🔴 The bad news: I was no longer confident in my ability to detect a moat.

Here's why that's so important👇

I Threw In The Towel

The 8 (Mostly Tech) Stocks I've SOLD Entirely in 2024

(From Worst to Best Decision)👇 8) Intuitive Surgical $ISRG

The Reason: Valuation

The Date: May 20th

The Results:

🟢 $ISRG: +16%
🔴 $SPY: +1%

The Verdict: I love this company. I might've under-estimated how long 15%-ish growth can continue for.

The last month of owning Celsius stock...

Explained simply $CELH 👇 The company hit a peak on May 24th at ~$95

How expensive is $NVDA really?

The answer might surprise you👇 Of course, we could look at common multiples:

🔵 Price / Free Cash Flow (trailing): 82
🟢 Price / Free Cash Flow (forward): 52

Those aren't obscene, but they are one of many data points.

Last week, I bought you the four stocks DUMPED from The Antifragile Portfolio.

This week, the four stocks BOUGHT in The Antifragile Portfolio👇 You might be wondering: "Why should I care?"

That's a fair question.

Below are the returns of The Antifragile Portfolio since the end of 2014 vs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

Everything changed on November 30, 2022

The changes have come in two waves.

But Wave #3 might surface tomorrow...👇 What was the big change?

ChatGPT was released.

And AI became the buzzword on every conference call.

The first winner was obvious

The Antifragile Portfolio has made 4 major SELLS recently

The stocks I've dumped👇 The Context:

I want stocks with:

1️⃣ A Wide Moat: Veeva's Moat is a MILE-WIDE
2️⃣ Optionality: Here's the problem👇

For years, Vault came out with new products that were gobbled up. I have the feeling we've reached saturation, but the stock trades like it hasn't.

April 6th

I said: " $TSLA is cheap!"

It's up 37% in the last week alone!

Is it still cheap?

My answer⤵️ First, we need to take into consideration that free cash flow is plunging.

Inventory is up (a very bad sign for a vertically integrated company)

And spending on AI has been huge.

Warren Buffett's favorite investing book:

Securities Analysis by Ben Graham

It's FILLED with timeless wisdom that still applies today.

Here are 12 powerful lessons every investor should memorize:⤵️ 1. Investing versus speculating

Investors make decisions based on the facts and value of the asset.

Speculators make decisions based on other participants' behaviors.

Know the difference:

📊 $TSLA valuation: Is the 65% dip a buying opportunity?

What today's price assumes about the future⤵️ Most only look at traditional ratios and say:

"This is WAY too expensive."

🔴 Price/Earnings (P/E): 33
🔴 Forward P/E: 59
🔴 Price/Free Cash Flow (P/FCF): 108
🔴 Forward P/FCF: 113

They aren't wrong, but it's incomplete.

What if we do a reverse DCF?⤵️

The P/E ratio sucks It’s a metric that easily deceives investors

Here are 5 reasons why the P/E ratio can be INCREDIBLY misleading (and what metrics to use instead):👇 What is the P/E ratio?

P/E stands for “price-to-earnings”

It’s a simple metric for determining a company’s current valuation

It divides the stock price by the last 12 months of earnings per share

I own 16 stocks

Here they are, from most to least "expensive": Most (13) of these stocks are roughly in STAGE 3/4

The Tool: modified Reverse DCF calculation

My inputs:
1️⃣ A 3% terminal growth rate
2️⃣ A 10% discount rate
3️⃣ An optimized Free Cash Flow margin

The output:
🟢 The assumed TOP LINE growth
🔴 Adjusted for share dilution

This might seem blasphemous, but I don't think $CRWD is *crazy* expensive right now.

Just *normal* expensive.

Here's why👇 Management has gone on the record saying $CRWD can reach 38% Free Cash Flow margins.

That's $0.38 of every $1.00 in sales going in the company's pocket.

The three cheapest stocks in The Antifragile Portfolio today, in reverse order⤵️ 3) Amazon $AMZN

Amazon is an odd beast. It can go on capex binges, then capex fasts.

I like to use Price/Operating Cash Flow (**real** cash from operations) to check valuation.

What it looks like now⤵️

Since December 2014, The Antifragile Portfolio has returned 17.7% per year.

That beats the market.

The main ingredient of success: Studying MOATS.

A quick primer⤵️ What do I mean by "Moat"?

Accounting is the language of business.

If you buy stocks, you MUST learn how to read a balance sheet.

Here’s everything you need to know:⤵️ The balance sheet is one of the 3 major financial statements.

It shows company’s:

▪️Assets: What it owns
▪️Liabilities: What it owes
▪️Shareholders Equity: It's net worth attributable to its owners

At a FIXED point in time

The ANTIFRAGILE PORTFOLIO owns 21 stocks.

Here's each one and the key metric to watching for each...⤵️ Mercadolibre $MELI

Since: 2015
Percent of port: 13%
Total Return: +1,100%

Mission: Democratize commerce & finance
Why: Infrastructure buildout & sticky payment solution
Key KPI: ⤵️

If you pay attention to P/E for stocks like $AMZN you shouldn't be buying any stocks

Here's why P/E is completely USELESS What does P/E stand for?

I own ~21 stocks

Here are:

📈 3 MOST EXPENSIVE

👇 Intuitive Surgical $ISRG

Assuming a 10% discount...

👉IF, the company's FCF margin in 2034 is 33%

👉THEN, it's revenue must grow at 21% CAGR

Right now, expectations are for ~17% revenue CAGR over next two years

(Note: Currently 2% position -- VERY Antifragile company)