An Analysis of 2016 Election numbers:
1. Cayetano only got 5.9M, meaning around 10.7M of 16.6M Du30 voters chose another VP.
2. Majority of that 10.7M went to BBM and some to Leni.
3. Mar only got 9.9M, but Leni got 14.4M, meaning 4.5M chose another president, either Du30 or Poe.
4. Poe got 9.1M votes but Chiz only got 4.9M, thus some 4.2M voters chose another VP, mostly Leni.
5. Leni’s 14.4M is made up of abt 90% Mar’s 9.9M (9M, Mar-Leni), (3M, Poe-Leni), (2M, Du30-leni) & (0.4M, MDS/Binay-Leni)
6. The 2M, Du30-Leni are the DDS defectors now & counting.
7. BBM got 14.1M, from w/c the DDS-BBM voter base is just around 8.5M. Therefore, the BBM loyalists are around 5.6M.
8. Don’t bother with the 5.6M loyalists, hopeless case.
9. The 9M remaining from the orig 16.6M DDS, are now torn between BBM & Go.
10. Meanwhile, @lenirobredo has the solid 14.4M and only getting stronger by the day.
11. Out of the 63M registered voters, 4M are 1st time.
12. Voter turnout is usually at 70% or 45M. 20M votes is a plausible TARGET for #LeniKiko2022 @bamaquino 💖✊🏻

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More from @vtabing

16 Nov
With Bong Go running for pres on Du30’s backing, BBM can’t repeat his 14.1M in 2016.
Du30’s 16.6M can be broken down into:
Du30-Peter (5.9M)
Du30-Leni (2M)
Du30-BBM (8.7M)
This 8.7M will now be split between BBM & BG.
While @lenirobredo ‘s 14.4M is intact.💖✊🏻
If I were to distribute the 2016 pres. votes to the cuurent bets:
Du30 16.6M (BG-8M, Pac-2.6M, BBM-4M, Leni-2M)
Mar 9.9M (Most to Leni-9M)
Poe 9.1M (Most to Leni-5M, Isko/Ping-4.1M)
Binay 5.4M (BBM-2M, Leni-1M, Isko/Ping/Pac-2.4M)
MDS 1.4M (Leni-1M, 0.4M others)
Leni Total: 18M
In 2016, the total pres. votes cast was 42.4M out of 59M registered voters. Today, with 4M 1st time voters, it’s now 63M. Assume 80% turnout, that’s 50.4M. Assume the addtl 8M voters will be evenly split 1.5M each, @lenirobredo can hit 20M votes and win.💖✊🏻
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