Good morning! Options fairly priced. As a reminder, volex is tomorrow. When we began this expiration cycle, the spread between VIX and VX was very wide, and the question was how would it resolve? Typically VX has the crush on VIX and chases it around.
This time they met in the middle in mutual compromise. However it takes a lot more effort for VIX to meet VX. VX is a futures level, but VIX is a loaded calculation. I keep saying VIX needs context and maybe later today I'll do a quick thread about what that means.
The context that is important right now is vertical skew. This is how VIX went up over the past couple of weeks. The OTM options have been more expensive than normal. Is this an opportunity? How do you short skew? It is hard to do it without a little bit of delta or vega bias.
but some examples include an OTM ratio spread (in SPY something like buying 1 450 put and selling 2 449 puts). Expensive but effective. If you believe there will be volatility, buying an IC will work. Knowing skew will bring edge, not profits, but you cannot have enough edge.
Side note: Pepe Le Pew is a rapist.

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More from @WizOfOps

16 Nov
1/ A quick thread on contextualizing $VIX.

First, how to calculate $VIX all by yourself. I'm not going to reinvent the wheel, because @CBOE did a fantastic job piecing it together for all of us in the easiest possible terms. cdn.cboe.com/resources/vix/…
2/ Now let's take a quick look at the components and see the various ways $VIX can go up:

1. The most obvious and commonly understood is through heightened IV. If the demand for $SPX options have increased, VIX will go up. While the more common bump in IV is in puts...
3/... that isn't always the case. $VIX can go up from calls as well. Put/call parity and MM risk management prevents massive dislocations, but when observing overvixing, make sure it is in puts. The concurrent rise in $VIX and $SPX tends to be on the call side.
Read 9 tweets
5 Nov
1/Trade Planning Part 4 - Edge

Reminder, here's the 4 parts of any trade:
edge -> setup -> trade plan -> execution.

If you missed the other sections, check out my history.
2/Edge is the opportunity you have identified in the market that provides profit. It is the “alpha” everyone talks about. The term alpha comes from the expected return curve on a log scale chart where the price is the y-axis, your metric is the x-axis.
3/I’m sure you remember the simple formula Y = bx + a… beta is the b, alpha is the a, so if the a is positive (the y intercept), that means even if x doesn’t do anything, you make money. Edge is the highest order of trading, so it is tough to recognize if your thesis has edge.
Read 12 tweets
4 Nov
1/Trade Planning Part 3 - Setups

Reminder, here's the 4 parts of any trade:
edge -> setup -> trade plan -> execution.

If you missed the section on execution or trade planning, check out my history.
2/A setup is a scenario when you recognize your edge exists and there is enough liquidity to formulate a trade plan. For example, in my "overvixing" metric, when VIX deviates from the regression by enough, there is a setup.
3/I hear the word setup a lot in technical trading circles. “I see a possible 1-2, i-ii, I-II setup and the market will go up for 3 years straight.” or “I see a bull flag that above price X, this will extend to Y.” IMO, these are not setups.
Read 11 tweets
4 Nov
Good morning! FOMC came and went, and there wasn't any surprise to speak of. Two things are keeping me from bull hands right now. The first is yesterday a ton of index calls were bought. That means there will be a stabilizing force in the markets keeping them from going up.
At least until a certain level, which appears to be roughly 4850 (a long way to go). That doesn't mean downside is imminent, but it means that long gamma bullish is not the answer. Put vanna still higher, but call vanna is stronger than normal.
The 2nd issue is 3Dec the debt ceiling is reached once again. 2 months ago this happened, result was a downside bleed. The bleed was slow, and the gamma flip point is far below us (4480). Base case: the next week, flat indices. Then downside bleed until debt ceiling is resolved.
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
1/Trade Planning Part 2 - Trade Plans (too alliterative for you? lol)

Reminder, here's the 4 parts of any trade:
edge -> setup -> trade plan -> execution.

If you missed the section on execution, that was yesterday, check out my history. Anyway, here goes:
2/A trade plan is an entrance and exit strategy designed to extract your edge from your setup. The more efficient your trade plan is, the better your returns on your edge are. A trade plan involves tools, using stock, options, futures, etc. These tools need to be used correctly.
3/Before you use a tool, know exactly what it is, practice with it, learn it. I identified options as an important tool due to its convex nature, where equities alone have a more linear nature. Learn your tools before you use them. Do not be Alex Kearns. cnn.com/2020/06/19/bus…
Read 11 tweets
3 Nov
1/ A 4-part thread on trade planning. Part 1

This is an amalgam of a lot of reading, so it isn’t attributable to a single source. This functions as the framework for my trading.

Some definitions:
2/
 A trade succeeds or fails if it works as it is designed. Success and failure isn't winning or losing. You can lose but have a successful trade.
 Return to Risk (R/R) = (Probability of success * reward)/(Probability of failure * risk). Should be >1 every trade
3/
 Your trade thesis is what about the market your trade is trying to capitalize in your favor.

 The natural flow of a trade is: edge -> setup -> trade plan -> execution. If any of them are lacking, your trade’s success chance plummets, but they can inform each other.
Read 10 tweets

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