Jesse D. Jenkins Profile picture
Nov 16, 2021 17 tweets 10 min read Read on X
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

"System-level of 24/7 Carbon-free Electricity Procurement" is the first study to examine the grid-level impacts of this new strategy in clean energy procurement using a sophisticated electricity system planning model.

Download: acee.princeton.edu/24-7
A growing number of leaders in clean energy procurement, incl. @Google (who financially supported this study), @Microsoft & the Biden Admin, are working to buy clean electricity to match their demand, 24/7, hour-by-hour. See this great @drvolts explainer: volts.wtf/p/an-introduct…
Voluntary purchases of renewable energy by corporate, institutional & government entities have historically procured a significant share of U.S. wind and solar resources, including 1/3rd of all wind & solar added to US grids in 2020 (see @RenewableBuyers cebuyers.org/deal-tracker/)
Voluntary procurement of renewable energy has already had a transformative impact on the cost, financeability, and availability of wind and solar power, helping transform these clean energy sources from expensive "alternative energy" to mainstream affordable options for the world
Procuring enough renewable energy to match 100% of a consumer's annual electricity use remains a powerful step to accelerate clean energy adoption & reduce emissions. Make no mistake: 100% annual matching IS clean energy leadership.

But it does have it's limits...
Variable generation of wind and solar power purchased by a voluntary buyer is unlikely to align with the timing of the buyer’s electricity consumption. During times the wind isnt strong or the sun doesnt shine, voluntary buyers still have to rely on carbon-emitting power plants.
The mismatch between variable renewable generation and electricity demand limits the ability to reduce CO2 emissions associated with a buyer's consumption and fails to drive deployment of advanced clean energy technologies needed for society to get to 100% clean electricity goals
Enter 24/7 carbon-free electricity procurement, which aims to go beyond the impacts of 100% renewable energy to drive deeper emissions reductions and replicate the transfromative impact voluntary buyers have had on wind & solar for 'clean firm' generation & long-duration storage.
Our new study, led by ZERO Lab postdoc @QingyuXu7 w/support from @NehaSPatankar & @aneeshamanocha, represents the first detailed analysis of the electricity system-level impacts of 24/7 carbon-free energy procurement (24/7 CFE). acee.princeton.edu/24-7
We find that 24/7 carbon-free electricity purchasing enables deeper emissions reductions and deeper transformation of the electricity sector than 100% annual matching with renewables. But it does so at a potentially significant cost premium for early leaders.
Here's a summary of key findings...

1. 24/7 carbon-free electricity (CFE) procurement can eliminate carbon dioxide emissions associated with a buyer’s electricity consumption, going beyond the impact of procurement of renewable energy to meet 100% of annual volumetric demand.
2. 24/7 carbon-free electricity (CFE) procurement can drive greater system-level emissions reductions than 100% annual matching IF the CFE target is high enough. (Some interesting observed effects across the two systems we studies -- California & PJM-- unpacked in the study too.)
3. 24/7 carbon-free electricity procurement drives early deployment of clean firm generation &/or long-duration energy storage, creating initial markets for deployment, innovation & cost-reductions making it easier for societal to follow the path to 100% carbon-free electricity.
4. 24/7 carbon-free electricity procurement better matches participating demand during periods of limited supply and thus drives significantly more retirement of natural gas generating capacity than 100% annual matching. (This can avoid lock-in of new fossil capacity.)
5. 24/7 carbon-free electricity procurement comes at a more significant cost premium relative to 100% annual matching; this premium is significantly reduced if a full portfolio of clean firm resources is available and procured and/or CFE targets below 100% are selected.
There's a lot more interesting analysis in the full report, which you can find at acee.princeton.edu/24-7 Also, sign up there for a free webinar, Friday Nov 19, 11:30am Eastern, hosted by @AndlingerCenter & @Google on the report and the impacts of 24/7 CFE. See ⤵️ for speakers.
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More from @JesseJenkins

Mar 24
A federal judge temporarily halted completion of a 102-mile high voltage transmission line that would connect dozens of renewable energy projects to the grid, at the behest of three environmental groups. 🤦‍♂️
reuters.com/sustainability…


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At issue: Driftless Area Land Conservancy, National Wildlife Refuge Association & Wisconsin Wildlife Federation sued to block a land swap approved by US Dept of Interior that would add 35 new acres of land to a wildlife refuge in exchange for 20 acres crossed by the line Come on!
I wonder where @audubonsociety @nature_org & @NWF are at on this project. They've done a lot to help keep a more balanced perspective on broad benefits of transmission to connect clean electricity resources and local environmental impacts.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 22, 2023
At long last, proposed #hydrogen tax credit rules are out. Industry reactions are in. While opponents of climate-friendly rules continue to complain, stakeholders from across the industry endorsed the proposal & are prepared to unleash investment in a truly clean H2 sector. A🧵⤵️
The Biden admin resisted a torrent of intense lobbying from big industrial players like the utilities NextEra & Constellation, oil majors like BP & Exxon, fuel-cell maker Plug Power, & their trade-group proxies, which spent millions on ads & lobbying to weaken the hydrogen rules.
But this has never been a "greens v industry" fight. In fact, a broad range of industry voices have consistently championed a three-pillars-based set of hydrogen rules. See
1.
2.
3.
4. s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2385…
taxnotes.com/research/feder…
nrdc.org/sites/default/…
greenh2catapult.com/2023/11/06/joi…
Read 22 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
If you’ve read about electric vehicles in the news lately, you know the vibes are all bad. The media has fixated on the idea that consumer demand for EVs is “slowing." But the data shows that just not true, as I explain in a new @Heatmap column heatmap.news/electric-vehic…
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If we take a look at actual sales data (as I did here ), there’s NO sign the growth in EVs is flagging. In fact, sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the Q4 2021! anl.gov/esia/reference…
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Putting aside plug-in hybrids, which have shorter electric range and retain a gasoline engine, sales of purely electric vehicles have been steadily increasing at ~60% annual growth rate for each of the last six quarters. That’s fast enough to double EV sales every 14 months. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 8, 2023
In the past two weeks, I think EVERY media outlet has written a story w/headlines like "EV sales are slowing" or "automakers are pulling back" from EVs. All present recent developments as a major setback. But are they? Are they really slowing? Is this 'red alert' moment? A 🧵...


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What does it mean that EV sales are "slowing"? Year-on-year growth rates have been ~60% in each of the last several months. That's a rate fast enough to double sales in about 18 months. It's hard to see growth that fast as "slowing" sales.
The best (and only) quantitative evidence presented for the dominant media narrative is this data, as presented in a WSJ piece yesterday here: dealers for traditional OEMs (Ford, VW etc) are taking more time to move EVs off the lots wsj.com/business/autos…
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Read 19 tweets
Nov 1, 2023
It's not a disaster. These offshore projects getting cancelled now all signed fixed price long-term contracts several years ago, pre-pandemic & then got clobbered by unexpected interest rate hikes and cost inflation that made the projects financially unviable.
Developers tried to pass along costs to states (NY MA NJ) & their electricity consumers, and for the most part were rebuffed. State agencies basically said "No, a contract is a contract and we cant start renegotiating or any future contract wont be worth the ink it's printed on."
I happen to think that's a perfectly reasonable decision. These states will have to re-contract for new projects. In fact, NY just inked another 4 GW of contracts from three new projects after rejecting attempts to hike cost of a couple of previously contracted projects.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 27, 2023
Important🧵from BNEF expert @CoreyBCantor ⤵️
It's been a rough few weeks of news on US EV transition. But there's also QUITE a lot of groupthink and sensationalism. Seems like everyone in the press decided this week the EV transition was dead and consumers "dont want EVs." Yet...
We risk conflating a *slow down* in incumbent automaker's EV ramp up plans -- GM, Ford, VW & Honda specifically -- with the broader market, which is still growing robustly, about 50% year-on-year according to @CoreyBCantor, despite serious headwinds from high interest rates.
While GM & Ford etc. pull back, upstarts like Tesla & Rivian are growing and other incubments like Volvo () & Hyundai () are leaning in and staying the course.electrek.co/2023/10/26/vol…
insideevs.com/news/693556/hy…
Read 10 tweets

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