The House is voting to pass the One Big "Beautiful" Bill right now. Here's six key takeaways on what passage means for U.S. energy costs, investment in new electricity supplies, and greenhouse gas emissions. #OBBB 1. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill raises U.S. household and business energy expenditures by $28 billion annually in 2030 and over $50 billion in 2035.
#OBBB

REPEAT Project just completed our rapid analysis of the impacts of the Senate-passed version of the One Big "Beautiful" Bill (#OBBB), which the House is considering now, on the US energy sector and emissions. Still working up full report, but here is a sneak peak... 🧵 Compared to what Trump can do via executive action alone, if the Senate-passed #OBBB becomes law:
1. US greenhouse gas emissions would increase by ~190 million metric tons per year in 2030 & 470 million tons in 2035

This is unbelievably bad. I am astonished that the Senate language got WORSE overnight than even the House version. This One Big Horrible Bill will raise energy costs, kill $100s of billions of new investment in energy & manufacturing, make our grid less reliable, increase pollution, and constrain our ability to compete with China for the future or AI. Total loser stuff. The new Senate draft raises taxes on all wind and solar projects that haven't begun construction today unless they are placed service by end of 2027 and navigate complex, likely unworkable requirements to prove they don't use a drop of Chinese materials. After that, this bill ADDS A NEW tax on wind and solar projects that can't prove the same.

Everyone seems to be framing Trump's freeze on federal grants as a Constitutional fight over powers of the purse & whether presidents can disregard Congressional appropriations. It is that. But also at stake is the fundamental validity of govt contracts! I see much less discussion on this... 🧵 Trump isnt just trying to impound appropriated but unobligated funding. He's frozen dispersement of billions of dollars of CONTRACTUALLY OBLIGATED funds. Whatever you think about the validity of impounding unobligated funds, this is quite clearly a direct and widespread violation of contract law. 🧵

Vance last night: "We should be making more solar panels here in the United States of America."
Me last night yelling at the TV: THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT AMERICA IS DOING UNDER THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION (AND EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN VOTED AGAINST THE LAW THAT MADE IT HAPPEN)!!

https://twitter.com/curious_founder/status/1841507482771877949

And it's not just solar panel manufacturing. After decades of politicians like Vance making empty promises to bring manufacturing back to America, WE'RE ACTUALLY DOING IT! Thanks to clean energy & industrial policy laws passed under Biden & Harris.

https://x.com/JesseJenkins/status/1825548460453671272

Two years ago today, President Biden signed into the law the landmark Inflation Reducation Act, supercharging the clean energy transition.
Today, REPEAT Project releases 'Climate Progress 2024,' our annual update and analysis of US progress on the path to net-zero emissions.
In this 2024 update, we've thoroughly refreshed all assumptions, calibrated near-term constraints against real-world trends & announced investments, and accounted for several federal regulations (EPA emissions rules & DOE efficiency standards) finalized by in the last year.

For my entire life, I've heard politicians talk about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America.
It is FINALLY happening.
"We're not going back!" has been @KamalaHarris's rallying cry. But those jobs & industries of the future now hang in the balance this #election.
🧵 The Biden-Harris Admin & 117th Congress enacted a trio of laws (IIJA, IRA, CHIPS) that made major public investments to grow & strengthen several key industries of the future: semiconductors, EVs, batteries, solar & wind, hydrogen, clean steel. jackconness.com/ira-chips-inve…

A federal judge temporarily halted completion of a 102-mile high voltage transmission line that would connect dozens of renewable energy projects to the grid, at the behest of three environmental groups. 🤦‍♂️
reuters.com/sustainability…




At issue: Driftless Area Land Conservancy, National Wildlife Refuge Association & Wisconsin Wildlife Federation sued to block a land swap approved by US Dept of Interior that would add 35 new acres of land to a wildlife refuge in exchange for 20 acres crossed by the line Come on!

At long last, proposed #hydrogen tax credit rules are out. Industry reactions are in. While opponents of climate-friendly rules continue to complain, stakeholders from across the industry endorsed the proposal & are prepared to unleash investment in a truly clean H2 sector. A🧵⤵️

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1738316869231317084

The Biden admin resisted a torrent of intense lobbying from big industrial players like the utilities NextEra & Constellation, oil majors like BP & Exxon, fuel-cell maker Plug Power, & their trade-group proxies, which spent millions on ads & lobbying to weaken the hydrogen rules.

If you’ve read about electric vehicles in the news lately, you know the vibes are all bad. The media has fixated on the idea that consumer demand for EVs is “slowing." But the data shows that just not true, as I explain in a new @Heatmap column heatmap.news/electric-vehic…
If we take a look at actual sales data (as I did here ), there’s NO sign the growth in EVs is flagging. In fact, sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the Q4 2021! anl.gov/esia/reference…

In the past two weeks, I think EVERY media outlet has written a story w/headlines like "EV sales are slowing" or "automakers are pulling back" from EVs. All present recent developments as a major setback. But are they? Are they really slowing? Is this 'red alert' moment? A 🧵...





What does it mean that EV sales are "slowing"? Year-on-year growth rates have been ~60% in each of the last several months. That's a rate fast enough to double sales in about 18 months. It's hard to see growth that fast as "slowing" sales.

It's not a disaster. These offshore projects getting cancelled now all signed fixed price long-term contracts several years ago, pre-pandemic & then got clobbered by unexpected interest rate hikes and cost inflation that made the projects financially unviable.

https://twitter.com/duncan__c/status/1719750637317914657

Developers tried to pass along costs to states (NY MA NJ) & their electricity consumers, and for the most part were rebuffed. State agencies basically said "No, a contract is a contract and we cant start renegotiating or any future contract wont be worth the ink it's printed on."

Important🧵from BNEF expert @CoreyBCantor ⤵️
It's been a rough few weeks of news on US EV transition. But there's also QUITE a lot of groupthink and sensationalism. Seems like everyone in the press decided this week the EV transition was dead and consumers "dont want EVs." Yet...

https://twitter.com/CoreyBCantor/status/1717951590751940664

We risk conflating a *slow down* in incumbent automaker's EV ramp up plans -- GM, Ford, VW & Honda specifically -- with the broader market, which is still growing robustly, about 50% year-on-year according to @CoreyBCantor, despite serious headwinds from high interest rates.

This is exactly right. Incumbents may be looking at split in US market, with both rapid demand for EVs and persistent demand for big trucks & SUVs and thinking, "well maybe I can wait a bit longer to get serious about electric transition." This is extremely risky...

https://twitter.com/CoreyBCantor/status/1717217012408058112

Automakers have to be investing NOW with their eye on market 5-7 years from now. Most of the world's largest markets -- China, Europe, and about 60% of the US market & more -- are effectively locked into electric transition and will be dominated by plug-in vehicles by 2030-2035.

Memo to utilities everywhere: like the Hulk bulking up for a fight, it is time for the electricity sector to get ready for GROWTH MODE!
A story in four graphics...🧵 From 1980-2005, the U.S. economy grew at an inflation-adjusted pace of 3.2%, and electricity consumption grew alongside it at a sustained growth rate of 2.4% per year. This was slower than the immediate post-war boom from 1950s to the 1970s, but still steady expansion.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE MINERALS?? The Washington Post takes a careful look at minerals requirements for electric vehicles and answers the key question, are electric cars really better for the environment? Definitively: yes! washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro… Key conclusions:
1. Even after EVs take over vehicle market & accounting for volume of rock extracted to access ores, extracting minerals for EVs will entail about 80% less than is mined/extracted today for fossil fuel use. Minerals can be recycled too, lowering volume much more

New paper alert!

"Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on the Economics of Clean Hydrogen and Synthetic Liquid Fuels" led by @Princeton ZERO Lab's @fangwei_cheng pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.10…






In this paper, we assess the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the costs of producing low- and -negative carbon hydrogen and synthetic liquid fuels made from natural gas, electricity, biomass (agricultural residues), and corn-derived ethanol.

One year ago today, the Inflation Reduction Act became law, throwing the financial might of the federal government behind the clean energy transition & forever changing the climate fight. And I dont think enough people appreciate JUST HOW CLOSE WE WERE TO LOSING IT ALLl! A 🧵... This is a great profile out today of @PeteWyckoff3, one of one of the many dogged Hill staffers who worked relentlessy to get IRA into law:
But it is also the story of how many times the bill nearly died and how hard fought a win it was. Give it a read.insideclimatenews.org/news/16082023/…

In the year since the #InflationReductionAct became law, 51 US solar factories have been announced or expanded, $20B of investment, including: 85 GW of solar panel capacity, 43 GW of cells, 20 GW of silicon ingots & wafers, & 7 GW of inverter capacity!

electrek.co/2023/08/13/sol… For context, REPEAT Project estimates an avg of 44-51 GW/yr of solar PV deployment in US from 2023-2030, so with those plants online, the US can manufacture all of the cells & modules it needs + 1/2 the silicon! (Although Im starting to think REPEAT solar # are an UNDERestimate)

For more on this, please read this eloquent, thoughtful column by @hollyjeanbuck on how the left is getting sucked into fighting, rather than shaping, the use of carbon capture & storage & how that serves industry to keep dumping carbon pollution for free
https://t.co/OTd3agRZuxdissentmagazine.org/article/the-ca…

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1678915795911430145

Key excerpts...

Utilities spent decades talking up carbon capture & storage for power plants as right around the corner. Now that Congress provided ample subsidies & EPA proposed regulations that count on CCS as a key compliance option, utilities are back pedaling fast.🤔
eenews.net/articles/epa-s… Mind you, EPA's proposed power plant regulations would not require power plants to install CCS any sooner than 2035.

That's...*checks calendar*...OVER TWELVE YEARS FROM NOW.

Im now to believe that CCS is not even viable to install more than a decade from now? Give me a break.