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Jesse D. Jenkins Profile picture
Jesse D. Jenkins
@JesseJenkins
Macro-energy systems engineering, optimization, and policy. Prof. @EPrinceton (MAE) & @AndlingerCenter. Leads ZERO Lab. Co-host SHIFT KEY pod. More at link 👇
Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture Emil Damgaard Grann Profile picture harbismi Profile picture nadezhda - @nadezhda04@mastodon.social Profile picture Gang He Profile picture 10 subscribed
Mar 24 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A federal judge temporarily halted completion of a 102-mile high voltage transmission line that would connect dozens of renewable energy projects to the grid, at the behest of three environmental groups. 🤦‍♂️
reuters.com/sustainability…


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Image At issue: Driftless Area Land Conservancy, National Wildlife Refuge Association & Wisconsin Wildlife Federation sued to block a land swap approved by US Dept of Interior that would add 35 new acres of land to a wildlife refuge in exchange for 20 acres crossed by the line Come on!
Dec 22, 2023 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
At long last, proposed #hydrogen tax credit rules are out. Industry reactions are in. While opponents of climate-friendly rules continue to complain, stakeholders from across the industry endorsed the proposal & are prepared to unleash investment in a truly clean H2 sector. A🧵⤵️ The Biden admin resisted a torrent of intense lobbying from big industrial players like the utilities NextEra & Constellation, oil majors like BP & Exxon, fuel-cell maker Plug Power, & their trade-group proxies, which spent millions on ads & lobbying to weaken the hydrogen rules.
Nov 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
If you’ve read about electric vehicles in the news lately, you know the vibes are all bad. The media has fixated on the idea that consumer demand for EVs is “slowing." But the data shows that just not true, as I explain in a new @Heatmap column heatmap.news/electric-vehic…
Image If we take a look at actual sales data (as I did here ), there’s NO sign the growth in EVs is flagging. In fact, sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the Q4 2021! anl.gov/esia/reference…
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Nov 8, 2023 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
In the past two weeks, I think EVERY media outlet has written a story w/headlines like "EV sales are slowing" or "automakers are pulling back" from EVs. All present recent developments as a major setback. But are they? Are they really slowing? Is this 'red alert' moment? A 🧵...


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Image What does it mean that EV sales are "slowing"? Year-on-year growth rates have been ~60% in each of the last several months. That's a rate fast enough to double sales in about 18 months. It's hard to see growth that fast as "slowing" sales.
Nov 1, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
It's not a disaster. These offshore projects getting cancelled now all signed fixed price long-term contracts several years ago, pre-pandemic & then got clobbered by unexpected interest rate hikes and cost inflation that made the projects financially unviable. Developers tried to pass along costs to states (NY MA NJ) & their electricity consumers, and for the most part were rebuffed. State agencies basically said "No, a contract is a contract and we cant start renegotiating or any future contract wont be worth the ink it's printed on."
Oct 27, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Important🧵from BNEF expert @CoreyBCantor ⤵️
It's been a rough few weeks of news on US EV transition. But there's also QUITE a lot of groupthink and sensationalism. Seems like everyone in the press decided this week the EV transition was dead and consumers "dont want EVs." Yet... We risk conflating a *slow down* in incumbent automaker's EV ramp up plans -- GM, Ford, VW & Honda specifically -- with the broader market, which is still growing robustly, about 50% year-on-year according to @CoreyBCantor, despite serious headwinds from high interest rates.
Oct 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is exactly right. Incumbents may be looking at split in US market, with both rapid demand for EVs and persistent demand for big trucks & SUVs and thinking, "well maybe I can wait a bit longer to get serious about electric transition." This is extremely risky... Automakers have to be investing NOW with their eye on market 5-7 years from now. Most of the world's largest markets -- China, Europe, and about 60% of the US market & more -- are effectively locked into electric transition and will be dominated by plug-in vehicles by 2030-2035.
Oct 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Memo to utilities everywhere: like the Hulk bulking up for a fight, it is time for the electricity sector to get ready for GROWTH MODE!
A story in four graphics...🧵 From 1980-2005, the U.S. economy grew at an inflation-adjusted pace of 3.2%, and electricity consumption grew alongside it at a sustained growth rate of 2.4% per year. This was slower than the immediate post-war boom from 1950s to the 1970s, but still steady expansion. Image
Sep 19, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE MINERALS?? The Washington Post takes a careful look at minerals requirements for electric vehicles and answers the key question, are electric cars really better for the environment? Definitively: yes! washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro… Key conclusions:
1. Even after EVs take over vehicle market & accounting for volume of rock extracted to access ores, extracting minerals for EVs will entail about 80% less than is mined/extracted today for fossil fuel use. Minerals can be recycled too, lowering volume much more

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Aug 31, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
New paper alert!

"Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on the Economics of Clean Hydrogen and Synthetic Liquid Fuels" led by @Princeton ZERO Lab's @fangwei_cheng pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.10…



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Image In this paper, we assess the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the costs of producing low- and -negative carbon hydrogen and synthetic liquid fuels made from natural gas, electricity, biomass (agricultural residues), and corn-derived ethanol.
Aug 16, 2023 • 44 tweets • 12 min read
One year ago today, the Inflation Reduction Act became law, throwing the financial might of the federal government behind the clean energy transition & forever changing the climate fight. And I dont think enough people appreciate JUST HOW CLOSE WE WERE TO LOSING IT ALLl! A 🧵... Image This is a great profile out today of @PeteWyckoff3, one of one of the many dogged Hill staffers who worked relentlessy to get IRA into law:
But it is also the story of how many times the bill nearly died and how hard fought a win it was. Give it a read.insideclimatenews.org/news/16082023/…
Aug 14, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
In the year since the #InflationReductionAct became law, 51 US solar factories have been announced or expanded, $20B of investment, including: 85 GW of solar panel capacity, 43 GW of cells, 20 GW of silicon ingots & wafers, & 7 GW of inverter capacity!

electrek.co/2023/08/13/sol… For context, REPEAT Project estimates an avg of 44-51 GW/yr of solar PV deployment in US from 2023-2030, so with those plants online, the US can manufacture all of the cells & modules it needs + 1/2 the silicon! (Although Im starting to think REPEAT solar # are an UNDERestimate) Image
Jul 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
For more on this, please read this eloquent, thoughtful column by @hollyjeanbuck on how the left is getting sucked into fighting, rather than shaping, the use of carbon capture & storage & how that serves industry to keep dumping carbon pollution for free
https://t.co/OTd3agRZuxdissentmagazine.org/article/the-ca…
Key excerpts...
Jul 11, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Utilities spent decades talking up carbon capture & storage for power plants as right around the corner. Now that Congress provided ample subsidies & EPA proposed regulations that count on CCS as a key compliance option, utilities are back pedaling fast.🤔
eenews.net/articles/epa-s… Mind you, EPA's proposed power plant regulations would not require power plants to install CCS any sooner than 2035.

That's...*checks calendar*...OVER TWELVE YEARS FROM NOW.

Im now to believe that CCS is not even viable to install more than a decade from now? Give me a break.
May 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Crediting the stable and clear investment signals established by the Inflation Reduction Act, Siemens Energy is eyeing a US manufacturing presence to build components to expand & modernize the American power grid: reuters.com/business/energ… We need more of this! We have to more than double the pace of transmission expansion in the US to deliver on the full potential of the IRA (plus even more to build at distribution level to accommodate EVs, etc.). And we manufacture very little key grid equipment in the USA today.
May 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
ExxonMobil is investing $17 billion over 3 years in its low-carbon business google.com/amp/s/www.forb…

ExxonMobil gave $30 billion back to shareholders in dividend & buybacks THIS YEAR alone. reuters.com/business/energ….

We are to believe they are serious about the energy transition? It isn't just Exxon. The rest of the oil and gas majors look very similar. They're 'eating the seed corn' of once-in-a-decade windfall profits by giving it back to shareholders instead of reinvesting in low-carbon transition businesses.
May 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So maybe the Inflation Reduction Act is aptly named after all. 🤔

Fossil fuel price shocks are historically some of the most significant drivers of inflation & triggers of recession. Getting off this crazy rollercoaster is key for US economic security. ⤵️ nytimes.com/2022/05/14/opi… And note that we can't drill our way out of this. The United States is ALREADY a net exporter of oil, natural gas, and coal. We did it. We're "energy independent."

Except we're not. These fossil fuels are global commodities. We're still economically vulnerable to price shocks.
May 18, 2023 • 33 tweets • 12 min read
How much would it cost to ensure electrolytic #hydrogen production is truly low-carbon?
Debates about how to implement rich new clean H2 subsidies in the 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇨🇦🇦🇺, etc. may hinge on the answer.
A new ZERO Lab report compiles the best available evidence: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo… ImageImage Earlier this year, ZERO Lab published a peer-reviewed paper showing that three requirements for clean electricity procurement - new supply, deliverability, & hourly matching - are necessary to ensure H2 production meets legal emissions thresholds in IRA iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108… ImageImage
May 11, 2023 • 23 tweets • 13 min read
Why is it cheaper to add a more expensive #geothermal resource to the grid than add more cheap solar?
My keynote talk at the Dept of @ENERGY Enhanced Geothermal Shot Summit this morning has the answers to this counter-intuitive riddle. Here's my slides: dropbox.com/s/aa6woifltsis… Image In recent years, wind, solar and battery costs have plummeted, dropping by nearly 90% for solar PV and Lithium-ion battery packs and by more than two-thirds for onshore wind. Image
May 9, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
.@nexteraenergy repeatedly claims (w/no evidence) time-matching clean electricity supply w/electrolyzer demand would be prohibitively expensive. Yet here is NextEra building 450MW wind project to supply 100MW electrolyzer in OK making time-matching a cinch wsj.com/articles/cf-in… Image @johnpodesta @azevin @alizaidi46 @USTreasury watch what NextEra does, not what it says.
Apr 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A jury unanimously ruled that a new power line bringing 1200 MW of hydropower from Quebec through Maine to customers in Massachusetts may proceed with construction, effectively overturning a controversial 2021 ballot referendum that rejecting the project newscentermaine.com/article/news/l… Here's a map of the New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line (source necleanenergyconnect.org/map). Most of the 142 mile high voltage DC line travels along existing rights of way, but a 53-mile section was needed to reach the Canadian border. Image