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Today IOC released a new Framework on Fairness, Inclusion & Non-discrimination on the basis of gender identity & sex variations olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-r…
This offers a sharp rebuke to World Athletics "Semenya Rule" barring certain women from competition without medicating
The IOC prioritizes the prevention of harm
The World Medical Association @medwma opposes the World Athletics "Semenya Rule" because of its harm to athletes
No more need be said on this topic
IOC comes out against sex testing of athletes - Good
Yet the WADA Anti-Doping Code was recently modified in light of the "Semenya Rule" to allow drug tests to be used for gender verification
This is wrong
IOC says athletes should be prevented from claiming a gender identity "different from the one consistently are persistently used"
So is it OK for a sport federation to classify an athlete's gender identity to be different than the one they "consistently and persistently use"?
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IOC says no athlete should be excluded based on a perceived advantage
This undercuts the entire CAS judgment against Semenya, which was grounded only in a perceived advantage (and earlier rejected as such in Chand CAS judgment)
And here is the kicker
IOC says "any restrictions arising from eligibility criteria should be based on robust and peer-reviewed research"
The "Semenya Rule" is based on research admitted to be flawed by WA & putatively (but not) fixed in a non-peer-reviewed letter
Wow IOC
But wait there's more
IOC is against medically unnecessary procedures or treatment to meet eligibility criteria
The WA "Semenya Rule" is centered on medically unnecessary procedures to meet eligibility criteria
IOC against invasive examinations
WA requires them
Again, wow IOC
IOC supports an athlete's right to privacy
But as we saw in Tokyo the WA "Semenya Rule" cannot by design protect privacy, in fact the opposite as we saw in headlines around the world
IOC calls for informed consent when collecting data used for sex or gender testing
But the linkage of sex testing with anti-doping makes this currently impossible
IOC calls for periodic review of eligibility criteria
Since the "Semenya Rule" went into effect there has been no such review, despite the research underpinning the rule being corrected by the journal that published it & WA admitting that it was misleading
Bottom line:
The new IOC Framework provides about a dozen reasons to rethink the World Athletics "Semenya Rule" (as if we needed even more)
This is a significant development
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The percentage of a percentage trick is increasingly common & leads to massive confusion
Here a undetectable difference of 0.01 events per year per decade is presented as the difference between a 31% and 66.4% increase (in the *likelihood* of the event, not the event itself)
The resulting confusion is perfectly predictable
Here is a reporter (NPR) explaining completely incorrectly:
"The phenomenon has grown up to 66% since the mid-20th century"
False
Also, the numbers in the text and figure do not appear to match up
I asked Swain about this over at BlooSkeye
A Frankenstein dataset results from splicing together two time series found online
Below is an example for US hurricane damage 1900-2017
Data for 1980-2017 was replaced with a different time series in the green box
Upwards trend results (red ---)
Claim: Due to climate change!
The errors here are so obvious and consequential that it is baffling that the community does not quickly correct course
The IPCC AR6 cited a paper misusing the Frankenstein hurricane loss dataset to suggest that NOAA's gold standard hurricane "best track" dataset may be flawed
JFC - Using flawed economic loss data to suggest that direct measurements of hurricanes are in error!
We’ve reached the point where an IPCC author is openly rejecting the conclusions of the IPCC out of concern over how their political opposition is correctly interpreting the AR6
The integrity of the IPCC on extreme events is now under attack
The IPCC explains that a trend in a particular variable is DETECTED if it is outside internal variability and judged with >90% likelihood
For most (not all) metrics of extreme weather detection has not been achieved
That’s not me saying that, but IPCC AR6
The IPCC also assesses that for most (but not all) metrics of extreme weather the signal of a change in climate will not emerge from internal variability with high confidence (ie, >90%) by 2050 or 2100, even assuming the most extreme changes under RCP8.5
The US National Academy of Sciences has a new study committee on Extreme Event Attribution
Among its sponsors are the Bezos Earth Fund and Robert Litterman
Who are they? . . .
The Bezos Earth Fund sponsors World Weather Attribution, an advocacy group promoting the connection of weather events w/ fossil fuels in support of press coverage & lawsuits
Robert Litterman is on the board of Climate Central which founded WWA & collaborates on climate advocacy
The fact that a NAS committee is funded by political advocates is crazy enough
But that is not all
On the committee itself are individuals from two climate advocacy groups
One . . . the Union of Concerned Scientists which is working to use attribution to support lawsuits . . .