🧵
Today IOC released a new Framework on Fairness, Inclusion & Non-discrimination on the basis of gender identity & sex variations
olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-r…

This offers a sharp rebuke to World Athletics "Semenya Rule" barring certain women from competition without medicating Image
The IOC prioritizes the prevention of harm

The World Medical Association @medwma opposes the World Athletics "Semenya Rule" because of its harm to athletes

No more need be said on this topic Image
IOC comes out against sex testing of athletes - Good

Yet the WADA Anti-Doping Code was recently modified in light of the "Semenya Rule" to allow drug tests to be used for gender verification

This is wrong Image
IOC says athletes should be prevented from claiming a gender identity "different from the one consistently are persistently used"

So is it OK for a sport federation to classify an athlete's gender identity to be different than the one they "consistently and persistently use"?
🤷‍♂️ Image
IOC says no athlete should be excluded based on a perceived advantage

This undercuts the entire CAS judgment against Semenya, which was grounded only in a perceived advantage (and earlier rejected as such in Chand CAS judgment) Image
And here is the kicker
IOC says "any restrictions arising from eligibility criteria should be based on robust and peer-reviewed research"

The "Semenya Rule" is based on research admitted to be flawed by WA & putatively (but not) fixed in a non-peer-reviewed letter

Wow IOC Image
But wait there's more

IOC is against medically unnecessary procedures or treatment to meet eligibility criteria

The WA "Semenya Rule" is centered on medically unnecessary procedures to meet eligibility criteria

IOC against invasive examinations
WA requires them

Again, wow IOC Image
IOC supports an athlete's right to privacy

But as we saw in Tokyo the WA "Semenya Rule" cannot by design protect privacy, in fact the opposite as we saw in headlines around the world Image
IOC calls for informed consent when collecting data used for sex or gender testing

But the linkage of sex testing with anti-doping makes this currently impossible Image
IOC calls for periodic review of eligibility criteria

Since the "Semenya Rule" went into effect there has been no such review, despite the research underpinning the rule being corrected by the journal that published it & WA admitting that it was misleading Image
Bottom line:

The new IOC Framework provides about a dozen reasons to rethink the World Athletics "Semenya Rule" (as if we needed even more)

This is a significant development

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

16 Nov
🧵
Early look at long term CONUS hurricane landfall & normalized damage trends through 2021 based on peer-reviewed research & official data

1⃣Overall landfalling CONUS hurricanes
Updated from @philklotzbach et al 2018
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D… Image
2⃣Overall landfalling major CONUS hurricanes
Updated from @philklotzbach et al 2018
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D… Image
3⃣Normalized CONUS damages to 2021$ values
Updated from @JessicaWeinkle et al 2018 nature.com/articles/s4189… Image
Read 7 tweets
15 Nov
Climate cost-benefit analyses are going to look very different when the question is not from below: “what bad things happens when we exceed 1.5C?” But instead, from above: “what benefits will we see if we return to 1.5C?”
What happens if the world warms another 0.4C (from 1.1C today to 1.5C within a decade or so) and the world looks a lot like it does today?

Future temperature targets offer the political asset of uncertain impacts

Once those targets are exceeded that uncertainty goes away
Consider:

The 1970s global average surface temperatures were about 1C less than today … no one I am aware of is making the case that the climate of the 1970s is one we should try to return to (for obvious reasons, 1970s were a decade of many global extremes)
Read 11 tweets
13 Nov
🧵

🚨Important🚨
A new independent validation of our normalization methods & result

Alstadt, B., Hanson, A., & Nijhuis, A. (2022). Developing a Global Method for Normalizing Economic Loss from Natural Disasters. Natural Hazards Review, 23(1), 04021059.
ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.10… Image
A "normalized" record of disaster losses asks what damage would occur if past extreme events occurred with today's societal conditions

Over many decades, climate changes and varies, of course
But society also changes on that timescale as well

So normalization is needed
🍎to🍎
Alstadt et al 2022 (AHN22) seek to "to develop a global approach to normalize past exposure to current levels using the value of capital stock" rather than GDP

We agree 100%
Where available we have always used capital stock in our normalization studies (eg hurricanes, tornadoes)
Read 10 tweets
6 Nov
🧵
Let me explain how the Paris Agreement is a spectacular success & how it’s critics misunderstand its role in climate policy

The news from Glasgow could hardly be better . . . ft.com/content/b02f1e…
The idea that any domestics policies are made at COPs is wrong
Domestic policies are made in legislatures, parliaments & power centers of sovereign nations

Paris corrected Kyoto’s flaw in this regard

Paris allows a public statement of pledges & reporting on progress
Many seem to believe that leaders of sovereign states can make policy, pledges or promises at COPs

They can’t

Don’t ask them to
Read 10 tweets
4 Nov
🧵 on latest @gcarbonproject
GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET 2021
an absolutely essential resource (props all involved)

Some massive news in here . . .

See thread below from @Peters_Glen for more & links
The biggest news in the Global Carbon Budget 2021 is a very large downward revision in CO2 emissions from land use

The downward revision is about the same size as the total emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels from the EU17 or India

Of course caveats about uncertainties . . .
Compared to when I went to sleep last night, our perception of the magnitude of the net-zero challenge just improved (it is stull huge, but less huger than we thought)

This is absolutely great news
Read 7 tweets
28 Oct
I'm lecturing in class today on this brilliant paper by Mike Hulme

"Climate reductionism is the means by which the knowledge claims of the climate modelers are transferred, by proximity as it were, to the putative knowledge claims of the social, economic, and political analysts"
Hulme observes, correctly, that climate reductionism can be found in the scenarios of the IPCC which fix society and vary climate ... this is common in the climate impacts literature (eg, when adaptation is ignored)
We see climate reductionism in the IPCC15 report where societal impacts of 1.5C are compared to 2C (as reported yesterday by NYT below)

Little known is that almost all of these differences in impacts occur under scenarios that ignore human adaptation ... as if
Read 4 tweets

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