At some point a UK government will realise their negotiating hand is strengthened by having Parliamentary support, and also by being open to discussion. Instead since 2016 it has been secrecy, contempt for Parliament and failure. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
No, the fights between the executive and legislature over Brexit in 2018 and 2019 were not the way to do it either, that also came from an executive trying to ignore Parliament and failing.
And back on Northern Ireland, it looks like the UK negotiating position remains the absolutist "our way or the highway". Older readers may recall the UK red line on any level playing field provision that led to the strictest provisions ever in an FTA...
Unfortunately the idea that UK threats have won compromises from the EU is growing despite evidence being virtually entirely to the contrary. From Northern Ireland (1st time round) to fish, level playing field, financial services, the story if of the UK failing to get our asks.
To be entirely accurate it is always the Prime Minister that backs down from the threats, leaving his negotiators threats rather empty. And probably will be again in the case of Article 16, at least using it to dismantle the protocol (a more limited use quite possible).

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More from @DavidHenigUK

17 Nov
Afraid I disagree with this article almost entirely. Most notably it almost completely lets the UK government off the hook for signing an agreement and then seeking to undermine it rather than building a political package with unionists. theatlantic.com/international/…
This could be seen as generous. I regard it as completely incorrect. The UK government are seeking to gut the protocol and force the EU to undermine a single market. The command paper repeats the internal market act provisions of 2020 which failed.
Unionists rejected the protocol in 2019. The UK government ignored that then, didn't seek to change it, and now seek to use it in a threatening way. It is this bad faith negotiating that so infuriates the EU, and the US as well. Again, an essential part of the story.
Read 8 tweets
16 Nov
It might seem a small thing, but there's no way the EU can think the UK government sincere about the relationship when Ministers go out of their way in articles and speeches to avoid referencing "EU". I've seen several examples in the recent days, for example relating to Belarus.
The most important actor in Europe is the EU. Whether it is security, trade, or whatever, the EU will be part of any conversation. If you can't bring yourself to admit this, as for example a Foreign Secretary, then you can't be a serious player.

Isn't about liking the EU.
And if UK foreign policy is suspected of wanting to see the EU disintegrate - well that's quite a serious problem for any kind of relations.

And no, the EU did not say in Brexit talks that the UK would break up as a result.
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
Multinational companies delivered globalisation, not governments. And they are likely to continue to do so, though constantly monitoring supply chain robustness and points of potential failure. ft.com/content/a0683e…
From earlier this year, factors driving global supply chains. Worth considering for those governments who think they can rewire the choices - possible to a degree, but you have to understand the basics that drove globalisation. ecipe.org/publications/g…
As for the UK, our position in European supply chains is weakened by our decision to put up significant trade barriers. Likely that we find it easier to maintain our position as services suppliers, and manufacturing suffers more. ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Ooh, trade on the TV... Channel 4 right now...
Warning, real trade stories, not the imaginary easy exports of Ministers.
Ooh, @MichaelGasiorek and @AnnaJerzewska are the well chosen exports appearing so far.

They can't pretend away scary export figures though.
Read 6 tweets
15 Nov
The £1 trillion export target was a flop when first a government policy in 2012 and there's no reason to believe it is anything but a gimmick for the week now it is being re-announced. There is no export strategy. ft.com/content/b0d0d4…
"Made in the UK, sold to the world". That will be most of the ugly tower blocks currently going up around my part of London, though I don't suppose Ministers consider housing in their definition.

They probably think we'll sell £1 trillion of biscuits or something.
80% or more of global trade comes in supply chains, and the UK is the number two services exporter in the world specialising in the likes of education, finance, culture, sport and so on. Both of these facts appear inconvenient to the government.
Read 5 tweets
13 Nov
As the Northern Ireland border / Brexit hot takes continue, a blunt reality that does not get mentioned enough. For good or bad, fair or unfair, whether you like it or not, the bigger players in trade and international relations can and do swing the rules their way. It isn't us.
So the Brexit ultra attitude that they are right on borders and the EU should be forced to follow our way is frequently argued on the first, less on the second, but that's ultimately the important one. The EU with US support are interpreting the rules and there's no real umpire.
Net effect, when the EU say, that's nice data protection or Nissan you have in the UK, be a shame if anything was to happen with it as a result of your choices on Northern Ireland, it is because they are bigger (they probably also have rules more on their side if that's relevant)
Read 4 tweets

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