Key Insights: Matt Suandi—forced off of his India RCT development-economics project by the COVID plague—has taken the plague year to write a brilliant paper: Matthew Suandi: Promoting to Opportunity: Evidence and Implications from the U.S.... 1/
In the early stages of the Pacific War, whether a US submarine-launched torpedo exploded was a matter of luck.
If a submarine captain had an enlisted man marked out for promotion, those promotions happened much more often... 2/
...if the submarine returned from its cruise having succeeded in sinking ships.
Those promoted because they happened to be on lucky submarines with torpedoes that exploded lived 2.4 years longer than their counterparts who happened to be on unlucky submarines and... 3/
...were not promoted.
Those promoted because they happened to be on lucky submarines with torpedoes that exploded are recorded as having a last known address in a zip code with housing prices higher by 7 percentiles than their counterparts who happened to be on unlucky... 4/
...submarines and were not promoted.
Early promotion to a job with more responsibility and scope—at least in the WWII-era USN—shapes your life to a remarkable degree by giving you scope to develop and exercise your talents.
If the WWII-era USN is typical, we waste huge... 5/
...amounts of human potential by not giving people workplace opportunities to show what they can learn to do.
Equality isn’t just about money: it is about scope for action, about developing and exercising talents, and about receiving external validation.
A good society... 6/
...would give people much more opportunity to discover how big a deal they are and can become, and remind them of this at every opportunity.
It is very, very important to conduct realistic live-fire tests under realistic conditions
A last key insight: Hexapodia!... 7/
...References: Matthew Suandi: Promoting to Opportunity: Evidence and Implications from the U.S. Submarine Service <static1.squarespace.com/static/615a18f…>... 8/
...Ian Toll: Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942, The Conquering Tide: War in the Pacific Islands, 1942-1944, Twilight of the Gods: War in the Western Pacific, 1944-1945
First: Jason Zweig soft peddles the idiocy of Kevin Hassett and James Glassman on the 18 years-late Dow 36000 day. Buy-and-hold is a good investment strategy for the U.S. stock market. The strategy... 1/
... Hassett and Glassman were pushing—borrow money, leverage up, and go highly long stocks near the peak of a valuation-ratio bubble—led to bankruptcy in 2000 for anyone who acted on the recommendations of Dow 36000. Jason here is much kinder than I would have been... 2/
...:
Jason Zweig: Dow Crosses 36000—Making a Book’s Prediction Just Two Decades Late <wsj.com/articles/dow-j…>...
What is Kevin Hassett saying today, on Dow 36,000 day? In my inbox:
In a wide-ranging interview with _Washington Post Live_ today, author Kevin Hassett... 3/
I see the late David Graeber is in the news today. I do not trust anything he ever wrote. Let me tell you why. Let me pick a chapter at random from Graeber’s Debt: The First 5,000 Years… I land on... 1/
...chapter 12… I start reading… I come to the third page <ttps://archive.org/details/DebtTheFirst5000Years/page/362/mode/2up> and find:
"I would hear occasional rumors of secret gold vaults underneath the Twin Towers in Manhattan.... After the Towers were destroyed… 2/
[Graeber, cont.:] ...one of the first questions many New Yorkers asked was: What happened to the money?... Some spoke of legions of emergency workers secretly summoned… desperately carting off tons of bullion…. One particularly colorful conspiracy theory suggested that... 3/
"I would hear occasional rumors of secret gold vaults underneath the Twin Towers in Manhattan.... After the Towers were destroyed… one of the first questions many New Yorkers asked was: What happened to the money?... Some... 2/
[Graeber cont.]: "...spoke of legions of emergency workers secretly summoned… desperately carting off tons of bullion…. One particularly colorful conspiracy theory suggested that the entire attack was really staged by speculators…. The truly remarkable thing… is... 3/
First: Science fiction. But the science is history. That is, as Paul Krugman observes, what made Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series so striking and thought-provoking: Paul Krugman: Introduction to... 1/
... “Foundation”: ‘how do the ‘Foundation’ novels lok to me now that I have, as my immigrant grandmother used to say, grown to mature adultery? Better than ever…<web.archive.org/web/2019091808…> 2/
...One Video: Michelle Holder & Lisa Cook: Child Care & the Economy: ‘A clip from… In Conversation at Equitable Growth 2021: Evidence for a Stronger Economic Future… <> 3/
First: I must say that if I belonged to the Chinese Communist Party, I would not be at all confident about what the future is going to bring... 1/
...Economist: The Confidence of China’s Communist Party Is Striking: ’Since the Ming dynasty, Chinese who are oppressed by local officials have sighed, by way of explanation: “The heavens are high, and the emperor far away.” An earthier variant run... <economist.com/china/2021/10/…> 2/
...One Audio: Alice Evans: Ten Thousand Years of Patriarchy: ‘Our world is marked by the Great Gender Divergence. In India, Iran and Egypt, most women remain secluded and surveilled, with few friends. Chinese women work <draliceevans.com/post/ten-thous…> <podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/roc…>... 3/
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021-10-28 Th
Things that went whizzing by that I want to note & remember... 1/
...First: Alice Evans sends us to the very good Arash Nekoei & Fabian Sinn: The Origin of the Gender Gap: it is a count of records from the Human Biographical Record, finding that throughout history—save for Egypt in antiquity—only about 10% of women as men have records... 2/
... coming down to us that grant them a place in Human Biographical Record entries, with no significant changes over the millennia. While the 1900s do show the highest female share of entries since the -2000s, the difference is not (yet) very large... 3/