braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021-10-28 Th
Things that went whizzing by that I want to note & remember... 1/
...First: Alice Evans sends us to the very good Arash Nekoei & Fabian Sinn: The Origin of the Gender Gap: it is a count of records from the Human Biographical Record, finding that throughout history—save for Egypt in antiquity—only about 10% of women as men have records... 2/
... coming down to us that grant them a place in Human Biographical Record entries, with no significant changes over the millennia. While the 1900s do show the highest female share of entries since the -2000s, the difference is not (yet) very large... 3/
...Arash Nekoei & Fabian Sinn: The Origin of the Gender Gap: ‘International differences in women’s status are striking. When and where did those differences first emerge?… Over the last 5,000 years… records show no long-run trend in women... 4/

LINK: <voxeu.org/article/origin…>
...Plus: A New York Times that has lost the ability to be in the truth-telling business even should it turn on a dime and decide that it wanted to be.

A friend observes: ‘The article linked under the phrase “citational justice,” by Victor Ray, does not argue for, or even... 5/
... mention, the idea of "refusing to acknowledge in footnotes the research of those who hold distasteful views.’ That was made up out of whole cloth by New York Times reporter Michael Powell (and perhaps Dorian Abbott). They lie because they can. And they don’t care that... 6/
... a few people catch them at it:

Michael Powell: When M.I.T. Asked Dorian Abbot to Speak, It Invited Criticism: ‘The Massachusetts Institute of Technology invited the geophysicist Dorian Abbot to give a prestigious public lecture this aut... 7/

LINK: <nytimes.com/2021/10/20/us/…>
...
One Audio: Claudia Goldin & Alice Evans: “Career & Family”: ‘Professor Claudia Goldin joins me to discuss “Career & Family: Women’s Century-Long Journey Toward Equity”. Why do men dominate top jobs? Is this due to women’s choices or discrimination? Why are there more... 8/
... women in management in the USA than Europe? What would reduce the gender pay gap? And so much more. Book: <press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…> Professor Claudia Goldin: <scholar.harvard.edu/goldin>... 9/

Read more
8 days ago · 4 likes · 1 comment · Adam Tooze
...Very Briefly Noted: Gérard Roland: János Kornai, 1928–2021: ‘Economics of socialism and transition: The life and work of János Kornai, 1928–2021. The great Hungarian economist János Kornai, who passed away in October 2021, was a pioneering analyst of shortages... 10/
...in socialist economies and the economics of transition to a market economy. This column outlines what made him one of the most important intellectuals of the twentieth century… <voxeu.org/article/j-nos-…> 11/
..., socialist economies and the economics of transition to aAmanda Marcotte: Colin Powell’s Legacy: How His Wmds Lie Led to Donald Trump’s Big Lie: ‘With one UN speech, Powell helped usher in the era of a GOP driven by lies and conspiracy theories… <salon.com/2021/10/19/col…> 12/
...John Markoff: What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry<amazon.com/What-Dormouse-…>
Daniel Alpert: Inflation in the 21st Century: Taking Down the Inflationary Straw Man of the 1970s <cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.cornell.…>... 13/
...Noah Smith: Beware Shoveling Money at Overpriced Service Industries

Max Read: Maybe We Need a Moral Panic About Facebook : ‘Sorry, I mean Metaverse, Inc… 14/
...Andrei Frumusanu: Apple Announces M1 Pro & M1 Max: Giant New Arm SoCs with All-Out Performance: ‘The M1 Pro—laying the ground-work for what Apple calls no-compromise laptop SoCs…. We’re seeing a quite larger area of the SoC being taken... 15/

LINK: <anandtech.com/show/17019/app…>
...Jan Eeckhout, Christoph Hedtrich, & Roberto Pinheiro: Inequality Is an Urban Affair Due To New Tech: ‘The adoption of information technology… polarisation… via the displacement of routine cognitive jobs…. 200,000 firms in the US from 1…

LINK: <voxeu.org/article/inequa…> 16/
...Jörn-Steffen Pischke: Natural Experimenters: Nobel Laureates David Card, Joshua Angrist, & Guido Imbens: ‘The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded to David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, “for his empiric... LINK: <voxeu.org/article/natura…> 17/
...Dylan Patel: Intel Betting The Farm—Shrinking Business, Margins Down For Few Years, But Aggressively Investing $40B-$43B A Year And More With Subsidies: ‘Pat Gelsinger laid it all out on the table and stopped the charade. He was once a farm boy from rural Pennsylvania... 18/
... who moved out to Silicon Valley at the age of 18 to work at Intel. Now he has the keys to the company, and he’s betting the entire farm on its future technological dominance. It’s been very clear Intel will lose market share for at least the next couple of years… 19/
.... Intel finally learned their lesson. Instead of continuing to milk the cow, they realize it’s time to put the pedal to the metal…. Intel will be spending $25B-$28B in capital expenditure alone plus another ~$15B of R&D each year. This amount will be spent on... 20/
... additional fabs, process technologies R&D, improving the design, and other intellectual property. In just the last 8 months since Pat Gelsinger joined Intel, they have hired an additional 6,000 engineers…. Intel’s plan just feels insane to us. “5 nodes in 4 years.”... 21/
... After the firm struggled on the 14nm replacement for nearly a decade, to believe they can execute on this vision takes a whole lot of kool-aid. What we can believe is that Intel will spend a lot…. Executives and shareholders in firms like Applied Materials, Lam... 22/
... Research, KLA, ASML, and Tokyo Electron are likely cheering about Intel not backing down in the face of adversity. Pat will take the lower margins, but instead of figuring out how to cut costs like all prior leadership since and including Paul Otellini, he is... 23/
... willing to potentially light money on fire…. We are very skeptical this can be executed on. There’s no way to emphasize how difficult this will be, but it’s also the only path forward. Intel could follow the path of many other American goliaths such as IBM and... 24/
... General Electric. A slow slide to irrelevancy…. Pat Gelsinger and Intel are saying no to this…. We doubt 100% success from Intel, but we will leave it off with a quote from the man himself. “This is a tremendous period of time. We’re seizing the opportunity... 25/
.... Carpe Diem.” Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO…

Adam Tooze: Yale’s Grand Strategy Program: ‘A ripple went through the media recently following the resignation of Prof Beverly Gage from Yale’s Grand Strategy Program. I don’t have anything to add on that affair. I’ll just say... 26/
...that whilst at Yale, I taught pretty regularly on the program, alongside John Gaddis, Paul Kennedy and Charlie Hill. Given my interests, you might have thought it would have been a natural fit. It wasn’t. An ideology of cultural conservatism was hardwired into the... 27/
...program and not just by the donors…
28/END

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More from @delong

24 Oct
READING: Herbert Hoover's View of the Issues in the Campaign of 1928 (Herbert Hoover vs. Al Smith), by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/reading-herb…

Herbert Hoover published his memoirs in 1952. So perhaps there is some retrospective rightward drift in his recollections of what he... 1/
... thought back in 1928—but only some: he did give the anti-collectivist speech that he quotes at length here.

And yet Al Smith’s pre-Great Depression Democratic Party was not at all a “collectivist” party. As Hoover points out, it was the Bourbon aristocracy of the... 2/
...South combined with the urban machines and with agrarian, consumer, and labor anti-monopolist groups. Labor unions and consumer and farming cooperatives were as far as they went toward “collectivism”. The socialists of the day were Eugene V. Debs—Robert La Follette—... 3/
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
READING: Winston S. Churchill on Leon Trotsky, by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/reading-wins…

From 1937, from Winston Churchill's book _Great Contemporaries_:

"When the usurper and tyrant is reduced to literary controversy, when the Communist instead of bombs produces effusions for... 1/
... the capitalist Press, when the refugee War Lord fights his battles over again, and the discharged executioner becomes chatty and garrulous at his fireside, we may rejoice in the signs that better days are come.

I have before me an article that Leon Trotsky alias... 2/
...Bronstein1 has recently contributed to John o’ London’s Weekly2 in which he deals with my descriptions of Lenin, with the Allied Intervention in Russia, with Lord Birkenhead and other suggestive topics. He has written this article from his exile in Turkey while... 3/
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
PODCAST: “Hexapodia” Is þe Key Insight XXIX: Þe Swedish Central Bank Prize in Honor of Alfred Nobel Podcast, by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…

Key Insights: Paul Feyerabend was right—science is whatever scientists do: anything goes. But what healthy sciences that... 1/
...survive and flourish and good scientists do is put first and foremost discovering what actually is and making theories to understand reality. So Kuhn and Popper are also right.

2. Economics has not been much of a science. But this Card, Angrist, Imbens—and Krueger—... 2/
...Nobel Prize marks a very big possible improvement in this respect.

3. Keep at it! Keep doing your work no matter the brickbats, and you may, someday, look back and recognize that you have changed the world.

4. Pets are good: they drive you to “become the person your... 3/
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
equitablegrowth.org/brad-delong-wo…

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth: (1) Our Expert Focus series this month tells you why you should be paying attention to the extremely sharp Francisca Antman, Mónica... 1/
... García-Pérez, Mark Hugo López, G. Cristina Mora, and Eileen V. Segarra Alméstica. Read Aixa Alemán-Díaz, Christian Edlagan, and Maria Monroe, “Expert Focus: Latino leaders in economics and a call for more data & research about Latinos and Hi... <equitablegrowth.org/expert-focus-l…>... 2/
...(2) I remember, long ago, the wise Federal Reserve staffer David Wilcox telling me that he had realized that nowcasting was both the most difficult and most important part of his job. This looks to be an excellent forthcoming event on the current state-of-the-art... 3/
Read 16 tweets
17 Oct
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

First: How was it that really-existing socialist China was able to successfully “step away from the plan”, while really-existing socialist Russia was not? It remains a deep, deep historical mystery—to me at least:

Adam Tooze: How China Avoided... 1/
...Soviet-Style Collapse <noemamag.com/how-china-avoi…>... 2/
...One Video: Group of Thirty: G30 36th Annual International Banking Seminar: ‘The Group of Thirty was pleased to host its premiere annual event, the International Banking Seminar, on Sunday, October 17 from 9:00am–11:30am US EDT… <>... 3/
Read 10 tweets
12 Oct
Lecture Rehearsals: 3.4. World War II, by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/lecture-rehe…

67:00 total…

3.4.1. Lecture—World War II: Overview: Structures, tides—but also the flaps of butterfly wings and chaos make history. World War II is very much a case of the last of these. Our world... 1/
...today would be very different had World War II not happened as it did. (07:51) Slides: <github.com/braddelong/pub…>

3.4.2. Lecture—World War II Origins: It is astonishing that after World War I anybody wanted to do "world war" again. Yet the Nazi and Imperial Japanese... 2/
... governments were willing to launch wars. And the allies—Poland, Britain, France, Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium, Greece, Yugoslavia, the USSR, and the USA were willing to fight to oppose them. (26:38). 3.4.3. Lecture—Blitzkrieg: World War I was profoundly shaped... 3/
Read 6 tweets

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