Thread by @shaunjlawson

1. France: if they're at their best, nobody can beat them. But their attitude is always in question and don't forget the Champions' curse

2. Germany: completely, totally transformed since at last changing manager. They will be VERY strong a year from now

theguardian.com/football/who-s…

3. England: a semi-final then a final means... The rest of the world will be talking about us and have us down as a major contender. A young side and squad with so much emerging talent. And the tournament's being played mid-season - England won't be tired. That could be decisive.

4. Brazil: solid, reliable... but they have no X-factor, nothing to make the difference in tight knockout games. And a stat: Brazil have not beaten a single European side in a World Cup knockout match since 2002.

This is the first time in my life when I think if England met Brazil, we'd probably just about beat them. That would've been completely unthinkable to me at almost any other point.

5. Argentina: the ultimate wild card. They've got something really special about them.

Now that Messi's finally won something with them, he's relaxed. The burdens and pressure have gone.

And their stickability is unbelievable. Emi Martinez turns into Lev Yashin in an Argentina shirt; they are TWENTY-SEVEN matches unbeaten.

The reason they're 5th is really, they lack that much obvious talent other than Messi. But their midfield is far, far better than it was - and they will be frighteningly hard to beat.

6. Italy: they're still European Champions. But without Spinazzola, they're not half the same team. And Chiellini - who shares my birthday, by the way! - will be 38 in Qatar.

I can't see them getting that hunger, drive and spark which propelled them in the summer back in time.

7. Spain: talented, technical, improving - but I don't think they have the belief. Nor a centre-forward.

8. Belgium: nonsensically, FIFA still rank them number 1. But their window of opportunity has gone. They'll be too old a year from now - the only way is down.

9. Denmark: qualified excellently, inspirational in the summer... but can they handle the heat in Qatar?

10. Portugal: might yet not even make it, defensive, dour and too often, dirty... but they still have Ronaldo.

Outside the top 10, here's a few sides to keep an eye on. None of whom are contenders to win the thing (the top 5 in this list are the only ones, I'd say).

- Canada: probably THE story in world football right now. Top of CONCACAF qualifying and might even run away with it.

They're doing it under an English coach, John Herdman - and they're the Olympic women's Champions as well! Astonishing things going on there.

- Scotland: I really believe they can make it. And if so, that at last, they can reach the knockout stages too.

- Algeria: such a talented side. Who I fell in love with in 2014 when they took Germany all the way in the last 16.

- USA: a coming force. Lucky not to lose last night, but they've a clear identity and will only get stronger. Look out for them in 2026!

- Ecuador: they're gonna end up 3rd in South America. Could emulate the 2006 side who reached the last 16, but no more than that.

- Colombia: draw specialists of this continent. I can't figure them out. Huge potential but no mentality to go with it.

- Netherlands: a fiasco in the summer. Still something of a mess now. We'll see if Van Gaal still has one last trick up his sleeve.

- Japan: started their qualifying campaign atrociously. Picking up now, but amazingly goal shy. This mention is more based on 2018 than now.

And that'll do it. If you were to ask me to predict the semi-finalists, I'd take the teams I've ranked 2-5, with France flaming out.

You might think that's unthinkable... but it also was in 2002. And for that matter, in 2021. And Germany in 2018. And Spain in 2014. And so on.