Early week sim favorites at QB:
$8.0k Lamar Jackson @ CHI (9.4% optimal rate)
$5.1k Cam Newton vs WAS (8.7%)
$6.8k Jalen Hurts vs NO (8.0%)
$5.9k Derek Carr vs CIN (6.3%)
$7.6k Patrick Mahomes vs DAL (6.0%)
h/t @RunTheSims
Early week sim favorites at RB:
$6.2k AJ Dillon @ MIN (23.9% optimal rate)
$6.1k James Conner @ SEA (20.8%)
$8.9k Christian McCaffrey vs WAS (19.8%)
$5.4k Mark Ingram @ PHI (14.7%)
$5.7k Myles Gaskin @ NYJ (13.9%)
$5.5k David Montgomery vs BAL (13.6%)
h/t @RunTheSims
Early week sim favorites at WR:
$8.4k Davante Adams @ MIN (15.4% optimal rate)
$5.8k Hunter Renfrow vs CIN (14.3%)
$7.8k Deebo Samuel @ JAC (13.8%)
$6.0k Brandin Cooks @ TEN (13.1%)
$6.8k DK Metcalf vs ARI (12.1%)
$7.7k AJ Brown vs HOU (12.1%)
$5.6k Jaylen Waddle @ NYJ (12.0%)
Early week sim favorites at TE:
$6.1k Darren Waller vs CIN (11.2% optimal rate)
$6.3k George Kittle @ JAC (10.3%)
$4.4k Dallas Goedert vs NO (8.6%)
$7.1k Travis Kelce vs DAL (8.3%)
$6.0k Mark Andrews @ CHI (7.3%)
h/t @RunTheSims
Early week sim favorites at DST:
$3.1k Browns vs DET (7.4% optimal rate)
$2.7k Panthers vs WAS (7.2%)
$2.0k Texans @ TEN (6.0%)
$2.4k WFT @ CAR (6.0%)
h/t @RunTheSims
Head to RunTheSims.com for full access to our sim results, updated constantly throughout the week.
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Wanted to thread🧵some thoughts on parlays📜and round robins🐦 in sports betting. What are they, when to use them, etc.
Let's start by unlearning a few things.
Parlays are surefire ways to spot newbs with no clue what "expected value" is. They are sucker bets... OR ARE THEY? 👇
What makes a parlay #bad? Well, if you're like me, the parlay=bad mantra has been drilled in for quite some time. And generally, for good reason.
Why? Because most single item sports bets are bad in the first place. Multiplying them together in fact makes them worse.
Joe Public thinks the Dolphins are stone cold locks to cover 3.5 against the Jets on the road. He bets into -110 in an efficient market with no real method to generate an edge, meaning he likely has a 50% chance of being right but needs a 52.38% chance to beat the vig.