Get your USFL DFS package now just $69 at @RunTheSims
Jul 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
F1 dup update... there have been 36 DFS player with 500+ entries in the $15 GPP since F1 started... here is how they stack up in terms of identifying uniques
More thoughts on dups:
For the first time in F1 this year, I focused on dup reduction. We have a decent sample size now for predicting dup factors and ownership. I went with a brute force method:
First, I went with my normal event sim process which yields a "frequency" number for each lineup. That is, how often does that lineup finish as the exact optimal. Since I run 10k sims, frequency tells me how many times out of 10k I'd expect that lineup to be the nuts.
Nov 17, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Early week sim favorites at QB:
$8.0k Lamar Jackson @ CHI (9.4% optimal rate)
$5.1k Cam Newton vs WAS (8.7%)
$6.8k Jalen Hurts vs NO (8.0%)
$5.9k Derek Carr vs CIN (6.3%)
$7.6k Patrick Mahomes vs DAL (6.0%)
h/t @RunTheSims
Early week sim favorites at RB:
$6.2k AJ Dillon @ MIN (23.9% optimal rate)
$6.1k James Conner @ SEA (20.8%)
$8.9k Christian McCaffrey vs WAS (19.8%)
$5.4k Mark Ingram @ PHI (14.7%)
$5.7k Myles Gaskin @ NYJ (13.9%)
$5.5k David Montgomery vs BAL (13.6%)
h/t @RunTheSims
Nov 17, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Wanted to thread🧵some thoughts on parlays📜and round robins🐦 in sports betting. What are they, when to use them, etc.
Let's start by unlearning a few things.
Parlays are surefire ways to spot newbs with no clue what "expected value" is. They are sucker bets... OR ARE THEY? 👇
What makes a parlay #bad? Well, if you're like me, the parlay=bad mantra has been drilled in for quite some time. And generally, for good reason.
Why? Because most single item sports bets are bad in the first place. Multiplying them together in fact makes them worse.
