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17 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Good morning! 2 more days & we are out of quarantine. One of the positives of being stuck in a room for 2 weeks is that plenty of time for work & cuddles 🥰 w/ the baby & fewer choices to make (no need to wonder where to go & what to eat & what to do 🤷🏻‍♀️).

Shall we chase the $?
The US released its monthly holders of US treasury. Note that this is stock (which includes valuation effect) while flow just tells u net buying & selling by foreigners. Net flow is positive for long-term but stock shows lower, which means investors worried about INFLATION!!!
The Philippines & Indonesia have central bank decisions today. Both are expected to hold rates, very different than Latin American counterparts that have been forced to hike. For Indonesia, still low inflation & soft recovery mean they'll want financial conditions to be loose.
The Philippines still below pre-Covid output leaves growth wanting, even if it records positive figures (the base effect very favorable). Fiscal is stepping up big time as Duterte tries to spend his way out of the growth funk ahead of the presidential election. The BSP'll help.

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
18 Nov
A friend reminded me to look at the data after Covid. Given that most of the deaths occurred in the elderly, seems that millennials gained some wealth during Covid. That said, we got even more debt, and some bad stuff like consumer credit. Silent gen went to Gen X + millennial?
US assets:

Most are in equities (40.3trn)
Real estate is 34.9trn
Pensions are 31trn
Private business is 13.7trn
+ Others like durables.

Want to know what millennials own of the largest asset? 2%

Only 2% of total corporate equities & mutual funds. No change before/after Covid.
SPX rose almost 25% this year & our generation owns roughly 2% of total equity assets so we're basically so behind in asset valuation.

Let me show u what we have in wealth as a share of total for different assets end 2019 & Q2 2021.
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
18 Nov
Missing Southeast Asia beaches & food & BSP decision at Boracay is such a tease. I once had a business trip in Palawan. Another one was Bali🤗. Decision is a hold but what is more interesting is this upcoming presidential election in May 22. All in the family! Duterte, Marcos...
Marcos' son is running for presidency while Duterte's daughter is running for VP. Did u know that they run on diff tickets? Anyway, the last person who had more than 6-year term was Marcos (he served 3 terms & bankrupted the country & as a result they had to reinstitute the ban).
The interesting about Marcos is that he really influenced the Philippines till now. His expansionary policy (remember the nuclear reactor he paid for but never used & the Philippines is still paying the external debt that he incurred) left the Phils shy of spending, until Duterte
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
11 Nov
Good morning!!! Did you see US CPI last nigh 🔥🔥🔥🔥? Yes, 6.2%! Did someone said that inflation peaked and transitory? What is the Fed's target? 2%

How many months since we have past that? 8!
Of course stocks didn't like it, but u know what, the Euro didn't either & so didn't bonds.

Why? Well, have you seen US CPI? 6.2%! US CPI is higher than any of the EM Asian countries I cover. All!

What does that say about credibility of Jerome Powell? Janet Yellen? Joe Biden?
For 8 months, inflation went PAST 2% & the Fed is supposedly data dependent.

Here we are - US inflation 6.2%. Even after the "steepening" last night, US 10 year is only 1.5493%.

Real rates are LE NEGATIVE! DEEP IN THE FREEZE ZONE🥶. When is the last time it was so? 1970s 👈🏻
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
12 Oct
The Bank of Korea held rates & note that it will watch CPI for November but rather confident that consumption is stronger as mobility normalizes (SK moves to endemic) & inflation pressures limited, as in no stagflation.

Meanwhile, coal off the chart & oil edging to 84! Image
Flooding in coal mining region in China has caused coal prices to rise (note both China & India rely on coal for electricity: >70% of total source but India said it got ample reserves).

Across Asia, this energy supply shocks hits economies differently! Image
Remember that most of Asia loses from commodity supply shocks, except Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia.

China, Japan, India and South Korea are net importers of commodity.

$ flows from importers to exporters in commodity supply shocks. USD/JPY 113.3!!! Meanwhile, IDR strong! Image
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
4 Oct
Good morning from Poland 🇵🇱☀️ ! Shall we speak a bit about Asian economics, namely Asia & oil today?
Before we talk about Asia & oil, let's go through data we didn't (Friday was a holiday in Hong Kong & I was flying & don't forget that mainland China is off this week). Remember that China manufacturing PMI (state) was bad on power outages + demand.

But EM ex Asia doing better.
Notably, India is doing better, another month of expansion - we'll speak about why that will put some pressure on the current account. Indonesia great! Again, IDR is my favorite EM Asia FX at the moment for reasons u know - got better mobility + amazing trade + high yield. Good!!
Read 21 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
29 Sep
China isn't the only one in Asia that is heavily dependent on coal for electricity (about 70%), India is too.

And guess what? Prices have risen. And so India too will need to make difficult choices as reserves run low.
India coal stockpiles at power plants are the lowest in four years & so it has to choose whether to import expensive coal or have blackouts.

What is happening in China is not a China story but regional & global.

Winter is coming. 🥶🇮🇳🇨🇳
And as my Indian followers pointed out: India (and like much of Southeast Asia), winter is actually good for electricity demand, as in it would go down because cooler temperatures require less cooling & not much heating.

The same cannot be said for China.
Read 10 tweets

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