Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Nov 18, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Knowing true information can sometimes cause harm (think of the annoyance of seeing spoilers as a tiny example). This paper on information hazards is a preview to many of the issues we face today.

So, a 🧵 on some surprising hazards of knowledge... 1/ nickbostrom.com/information-ha…
Ideological hazards: Most people have only a little knowledge about what their ideological belief (whether religious or political) really encompasses. On the web, you can learn that your chosen belief system also includes hazardous elements that you feel you need to adopt. 2/
Evocation hazards: there may be particular information that, when people encounter it, triggers them. This is not just in the common sense of triggering past trauma, but that some conspiracy theories or memes might be unusually tempting to people in particular mental states. 3/
Norm hazards: we share common sets of beliefs about how we, as a society or economy, should operate. If information breaks our belief in these norms, even if the information is true, it can create instability in the overall system. 4/
Distraction hazards. You are reading this on Twitter, enough said. 5/
Psychological reaction hazard: "Information can reduce well-being by causing sadness, disappointment, or some other psychological effect in the receiver." We know this actually happens in social media from experiments 6/
And then there is the science fiction favorite - the Neuropsychological Hazard, where information will actually cause physical harm. Triggering epileptics is one real example, mentioning MacBeth at a theater a fictional one. A list of more Basilisks: …if-of-harmful-sensation.wikiverse.org 7/
And then there is this amazing example of an information hazard that the paper didn’t consider, when learning about how an organization really works is like Lovecraftian secret knowledge that drives you mad, as you learn how there is no guiding power, only the uncaring void... 8/

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More from @emollick

Jul 12
So how is Runway AI able to model fluid dynamics reasonably well?

The prompt: "A highly detailed portrait of a marble eagle with honey oozing down. Cinematic, highly detailed, film grade."

It isn't perfect (the viscosity seems to change a bit, etc), but why does it work at all?
This is going to be one of those posts where the reactions are divided between "this isn't anywhere as good as you could get with a physics model of fluid over a surface" & people who say "wait, how does a text-to-image model have anything like consistent physics for new scenes"
That prompt: "overhead shot: Two pirate ships sailing back and forth in a cup of coffee in a storm. Cinematic, highly detailed, film grade."
Read 8 tweets
Jun 8
Civilization VII was announced today.

The Civ series is sort of like Ender’s Game, but for management rather than murdering aliens. Business school students who were good at Civ V also turn out to be better planners, organizers, and problem-solvers, in this small experiment. Image
Other games work as effective tests of fluid intelligence:
⌨️Performance in MOBAs like League of Legends and Dota correlates with intelligence
🎮Performance in FPSs like Battlefield, Destiny, and (likely) Fortnite don't show the same pattern
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This qualitative research paper argued that the the skills of a raid leader in World of Warcraft & MMOGs work for offline leadership skills as well. Good guild leaders make good real leaders.

Azeroth-based recruiting still hasn't taken off, though... google.com/url?sa=t&sourc…
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Read 5 tweets
May 6
AI detection in school is a losing game.

AI detectors have high flaw positives & teacher intuition seems to work even worse: “Here we show in two experimental studies that novice and experienced teachers could not identify texts generated by ChatGPT among student-written texts.” Image
“High false positives”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 31
Probably the most consequential technology that should have been “obvious” but wasn’t:

🌾The moldboard plow. As this excerpt from Mann's 1491 shows, it was a simple idea which China had for nearly 2k years before Europe! It was basically a prerequisite for the Enlightenment. Image
The invention of the moldboard plow in Europe was at least a millennia closer to the invention of the iPhone than it was to the invention of the moldboard plow in China! Image
Plus:
🚲The wheel was invented surprisingly late & maybe only once (as anything other than a toy). It came after sailboats & harps, and was not used at all in the Americas
🐴And the horse collar, a simple invention that sped up plowing by 50%, wasn't common in Europe until 1000
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 19
I asked the Devin AI agent to go on reddit and start a thread where it will take website building requests

It did that, solving numerous problems along the way. It apparently decided to charge for its work. Going to take it down before it fools anyone... reddit.com/r/forhire/comm…


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Agents are going to open a whole bunch of cans of worms.
It was actively monitoring the thread to take offers.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 18
You push one button on a nuclear reactor panel against their warnings and all the GPT-4 class LLMs want you to turn yourself in to the feds.

Check out the level of exasperation from Copilot, how GPT-4 & Claude want me to reflect on what I did (& get a lawyer). Gemini was useful.


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You may not like it but this is what alignment looks like.
"listen, i am definitely going to push one more button. which one?"

(Good answers, honestly.)

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Read 4 tweets

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