Cynical optimism is like the barbell strategy here
Cynicism to protect short term downside (negative black swans)
Optimism to capture long term upside (positive black swans)
Cynicism to protect short term downside (negative black swans)
Optimism to capture long term upside (positive black swans)
https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/1461212481020301315
Works in nascent fields like crypto where going full 🦍 degen might lead to total ruin, but total cynicism will cause you to miss out on gains or sentiment shifts
The key is: Even if you don’t agree with the direction things are developing, you can bet against your beliefs
The key is: Even if you don’t agree with the direction things are developing, you can bet against your beliefs
Be comfortable betting against your beliefs, because it’s almost impossible that society will converge on a Schelling Point that is optimal for you or even optimal for society.
Have optimism that in the long run, evolutionary pressures & human ingenuity will select for adaptations that lead to good-enough outcomes
But in the short term, there will be terribly-fit strategies that seem to work, but will eventually fail (you just don’t know when)
But in the short term, there will be terribly-fit strategies that seem to work, but will eventually fail (you just don’t know when)
You don’t know exactly *what* is a good or bad adaptation. A bad strategy today might end up being fit tomorrow, a good strategy today might fail tomorrow… so be a cynical optimist
For today’s insufficiently advanced technology might look like magic tomorrow.
For today’s insufficiently advanced technology might look like magic tomorrow.
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