Thread by @AndrewLFanning

I’m SO glad to announce that we have a new study out in Nature Sustainability today.
nature.com/articles/s4189…

And at least as exciting: it’s accompanied by a major update to our interactive website at goodlife.leeds.ac.uk. Here is a brief highlights 🧵

The starting point is our 2018 study for a single year (with @DrDanONeill, @lamb_wf and @jksteinberger) doi.org/10.1038/s41893…

And this earlier study was inspired in turn by the global Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries, created by @kateraworth.

Our new study tracks nations’ social achievements and ecological sustainability since the early 1990s for nearly 150 countries, with projections to 2050 based on recent trends.

We find that no country has met the basic needs of its residents within planetary boundaries for at least the last 30 years.

Explore this chart interactively at goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/pathways/

Although there has been some social improvement, we find countries tend to transgress boundaries faster than they achieve minimum social thresholds.

Select from nearly 150 countries to see how their national Doughnuts change over time at goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/country-trends/

In terms of the number of social thresholds achieved and biophysical boundaries transgressed, about 1/3 of countries have changed notably since the early 1990s.

The remaining 2/3 of countries have not changed much (mainly very low-income countries and very wealthy countries).

However, we do find notable changes in the *extent* of social shortfall and ecological overshoot, particularly among those countries with little change in the *number* of social thresholds achieved and biophysical boundaries transgressed.

The avg extent of ecological overshoot in rich countries was already 3x beyond the ecological ceiling in the early 90s, and it has increased to 3.5x

The avg extent of social shortfall in low-income countries has been reduced since the early 90s, but still falling short by +30%.

Actions needed to reverse current trends and move towards the Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries clearly depend on the extent of a country’s social shortfall and/or ecological overshoot.

Lower-income countries like Nigeria and India tend to still be well within fair shares of most planetary boundaries, but they face an urgent need to accelerate improvements in social performance to meet basic needs.

Middle-income countries like China and Peru face the challenge of needing to continue improving social performance, while simultaneously scaling back resource use to be within biophysical boundaries.

Wealthy countries like the US, UK, and Germany tend to have levels of resource use far beyond their fair shares of planetary boundaries, and their extent of ecological overshoot has generally been increasing.

We find Costa Rica has consistently transformed resources into social achievement more efficiently than any other country.

But it still follows the general trend of increasing ecological overshoot, and is on track to overshoot 4 boundaries by 2050, based on historical trends.

Overall, our results indicate that an unprecedented transformation is needed within all countries and there is also a need to transform the relations between them – we discuss some policies for different groups of countries that could help get there.

I’d like to thank my colleagues for bringing this article to light: @DrDanONeill at Leeds, @jasonhickel at ICTA, and @Nicolas43513211 at BOKU Vienna. They’re brilliant, truly. Thanks also to @kateraworth for her ongoing support throughout the process.

Press release from the University of Leeds: leeds.ac.uk/main-index/new…

Early coverage:
The Guardian's economics editor, Larry Elliott: theguardian.com/environment/20…