WSJ Headline "Turkey's Rate Debacle Is a Warning for EM Investors".

Turkey is actually a warning for developed markets. If you overstimulate your economy beyond what supply can accommodate, & erode CB independence, inflation can imbed itself and become *very* difficult to stop.
Turkey is actually the only major EM suffering from incurable inflation, and it's one of the most developed. Turkey's probs have nothing to do with it being emerging, and everything to do w excessive demand stimulation & unwillingness to use Volker-esque sledge hammer to stop it.
Emerging and developed markets do not exist in parallel universes, but on the same spectrum, and importantly, are subject to the same laws of economics. There is no rule that says DM economies cannot endure the same fate from excess demand created by fiscal & monetary excess.

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More from @LT3000Lyall

19 Nov
How dare people build successful entrepreneurial businesses that improve customers’ lives and drive societal progress, and then have the gall to spend some of the bounty advancing humanity’s horizons.

Put people like this in charge and they will burn everything to the ground.
More than anything else, I believe lefty antics are driven by a toxic, suffocating envy. They want to be at the top of the social pecking order and can’t stand other people being more influential than them. So they want to rip them down to advance their own relative status.
Every hard core lefty i have met and debated with seems to exhibit this underlying tendency. They have a very dark, unpleasant tinge to their personality; are often unhappy; and seem to wish harm upon those more successful than them, no matter how large their social contribution.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov

*Slowing revenue growth/maturing e-com pen; rising competition and falling market share.
*40% decline in core profitability in 3Q21.
*Run-rate core P/E probably about 40x post SBC with further significant declines possible.
*Regulatory risks/headwinds.
*Still over-owned.
I've been arguing for a while now people have been using inappropriately low forward P/E multiples for BABA, often arguing it's on <20x 2021, excluding substantial SBC and failing to account the earnings risks & reasons why the stock has been going down in the first place.
Not saying I'm an uber bear or anything. But I've looked at and passed on the stock many times on the way down, as it still looked fairly expensive and esp too risky to me. Like Seth Klarman once said, we don't buy because it's down; we buy because it's cheap.
Read 8 tweets
16 Nov
What is going to break the current tech/growth bubble? Demand and supply:
*The Fed is on track to stop printing by mid 2022.
*The supply of stock keeps rising; prices are rising; stock based comp is large; the IPO market is frenetic; and secondary offerings increasing. (1/n).
Prices keep rising because the Fed is manufacturing new liquidity faster than it can be absorbed by financial markets. US$130bn of IPO & secondary issuance is needed every month to absorb it. That's very difficult.
Prices is financial markets are ultimately set by the interaction of demand and supply. The money supply determines the aggregate demand for financial assets; and the supply of listed product the supply. If demand > supply prices will rise, and vice versa.
Read 7 tweets
10 Nov
Great (and impressive) video by NYT on liberal hypocrisy and how it is contributing to worsening inequality (and other social problems) in blue states.

I mostly agree with it, although I think the way tax rates are presented is misleading/false. I would also argue it's not so much a case of liberals not "living their values" as it is not living their *declared* values. As the old saying goes, actions speak louder than words.
Humans are all fundamentally selfish with respect to themselves and their kin and there is no getting around that. Red states have less of these issues as conservatives are more realistic/honest about human nature & gear their policies accordingly.
Read 8 tweets
8 Nov
This whistleblower report on serious inadequacies in the Pfizer vaccine trials is big news. The allegations are credible. The British Medical Journal has published the paper & given the huge implications, would not have done so w/out serious consideration…
The whistleblower has a long and respected career in trial quality control, and the article noted they have provided the BMJ with "dozens of internal company documents, photos, audio recordings, and emails". The amount of such evidence for BMJ to publish must be very substantial.
Pfizer outsourced the trial to contract research organization Ventavia, who are alleged to have engaged in questionable conduct. The typical commercial conflicts apply here (Ventavia has repeat business with Pfizer) - i.e. wanting to give the client the trial outcome they wanted.
Read 8 tweets
5 Nov
We would like to acknowledge a long list of conquering tribes that forcibly dispossessed this land's from its prior inhabitants. Except the original peoples (who dispossessed wildlife) as their descendants are all dead now so who cares.

I'm Lyall and I'm wearing a white t-shirt.
This is possibly the most cringe thing I have ever seen in corporate America. It's like (nay is) a cult - it's creepy.

No one doubts past injustices occur. But feeling the necessity to add this preamble to a corporate presentation is just totally messed up.

And clothing - WTF?
Are we going to get to the point that before you can say anything of substance relevant to the issue at hand, you need to give a 10 minute speech on all the social justice ills of the world & disadvantages minority communities merely to avoid the appearance of being racist?
Read 6 tweets

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