How weak is China’s economy? Recent data suggests it has slowed sharply.
It may not even be growing at all, given the unreliable nature of China’s domestic statistics. Most observers say the slowdown is due to the government’s attempt to stamp out Covid trib.al/klMMp5J
It may not even be growing at all, given the unreliable nature of China’s domestic statistics. Most observers say the slowdown is due to the government’s attempt to stamp out Covid trib.al/klMMp5J
The property sector’s travails are more a symptom than a cause of China’s problems.
The nation’s economic model is probably broken, much like Japan’s was three decades before — and for similar reasons trib.al/8hiC5nn
The nation’s economic model is probably broken, much like Japan’s was three decades before — and for similar reasons trib.al/8hiC5nn
Japan’s problems started when markets began to be liberalized in the early 1980s.
The corporate sector’s financial deficit started to balloon, meaning it spent much more than it earned.
The gap was filled by borrowing trib.al/8hiC5nn
The corporate sector’s financial deficit started to balloon, meaning it spent much more than it earned.
The gap was filled by borrowing trib.al/8hiC5nn
Then the virtuous circle turned vicious. First stock prices crashed, then land prices. Companies were forced to start saving.
The corporate financial deficit rapidly turned into a surplus and stayed that way, becoming a huge drag on the economy trib.al/8hiC5nn
The corporate financial deficit rapidly turned into a surplus and stayed that way, becoming a huge drag on the economy trib.al/8hiC5nn
China’s working-age population peaked 10 years ago, and its overall population is probably already contracting.
Japan’s underlying demographic drag came after its economic bubble popped. China’s has been a drag for years already trib.al/8hiC5nn
Japan’s underlying demographic drag came after its economic bubble popped. China’s has been a drag for years already trib.al/8hiC5nn
Deregulation spurred Chinese corporate spending.
Chinese bank lending growth has been even more rapid than Japan’s.
According to @BIS_org, credit to GDP ballooned by 65 percentage points, to 205% of GDP, in the 10 years to 2019 trib.al/8hiC5nn
Chinese bank lending growth has been even more rapid than Japan’s.
According to @BIS_org, credit to GDP ballooned by 65 percentage points, to 205% of GDP, in the 10 years to 2019 trib.al/8hiC5nn
China's economy will struggle – perhaps more so than Japan’s.
The nation’s property sector is much more important to growth, and regulators have been struggling to contain property speculation for years without much success bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The nation’s property sector is much more important to growth, and regulators have been struggling to contain property speculation for years without much success bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The Chinese banking system — and everyone that relies on it — is likely to be crippled for years.
Many Chinese banks are already struggling to fund themselves. In Japan, most corporate debts were denominated in yen trib.al/8hiC5nn
Many Chinese banks are already struggling to fund themselves. In Japan, most corporate debts were denominated in yen trib.al/8hiC5nn
President Xi Jinping’s “Common Prosperity” drive should be seen as an attempt to spread wealth but to pool losses, with the richest having to pay much more.
That will help China guard against financial crisis and economic implosion trib.al/8hiC5nn
That will help China guard against financial crisis and economic implosion trib.al/8hiC5nn
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