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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

21 Nov

@jbouie

I'm late to this @jbouie piece, but I do think it's worth coming back to a week later to reiterate how odd it is that HR1/FPA, for all their gangly ambition, don't include a republican government-based attack on state legislative gerrymandering
nytimes.com/2021/11/12/opi…

A guarantee-clause based attack might be very different than what you usually hear about on this website.
It would narrowly establish that republican gvt = majority rule = can't draw maps that would thwart majority rule

Only one metric would logically follow from a republican government clause attack: the mean-median gap.
A lot of the usual anti-gerrymandering would be irrelevant in this framework, like commissions, efficiency gap, compactness, communities of interest, proportionality, etc.

Read 7 tweets

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

4 Nov

It will be a while until we have authoritative data on turnout in Virginia, but at the moment I think it's fair to say two things, judged against 2020:
--Black/non-white turnout was weak for Democrats
--Otherwise, Democratic turnout was probably fine

For clarity, I've assigned the turnout among early voters to each precinct using voter file data, allowing for a direct comparison to 2020 turnout using vote history data

In overwhelmingly Black precincts, turnout was just over half of 2020 levels. It was at about 75% of 2020 levels in areas with no Black voters.

Read 6 tweets

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

3 Nov

I said this to a few people on the phone so it may be worth adding publicly too: from the standpoint of electoral implications, one of the most important things about CRT (either IRL or caricature) is that it's a critique of liberalism from the left.

The implication: it lets certain GOPers be relatively liberal on race.
If CRT is raised to sufficient salience, GOPers don't have to rev up the base with outright conservative views--like anti-immigration or denial of police brutality--to polarize along racial attitudes

Of course, many Republicans will instead emphasize outright conservative views that alienate more voters. I'd guess one might have lost VA.
But for more moderate GOPers, CRT is a gift. They can bash the left and earn cred by merely sounding like... Obama '08

Read 8 tweets

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

3 Nov

There are only four precincts where Hispanics make up a majority in Virginia, but they did pretty notably underperform our baseline for a tied election--perhaps suggesting continuing, disproportionate Democratic weakness with the group

It also seems like the turnout in majority Black and Hispanic precincts was relatively weak (see right hand column)

I know it's kind of annoying to judge compared to some vague 'expectations,' but it's sort of necessary in Virginia, where all of the absentee/early vote is reported by county, while precincts are all Election Day precincts

Read 4 tweets

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

3 Nov

It's still a very inconsistent, mixed bag of results by county in New Jersey. It's rare to have such an uneven picture. And I do think the likeliest explanation is that there are a lot of places without all their mail ballots

It is *possible* that the Democrats can be good in Hunterdon, ok in Middlesex, crushed in Cape May and so on. I don't want to dismiss that possibility. But in the absence of better reporting, I think uneven vote by method is the likelier story

And so on that note, I'll ask whether anyone has seen any information that speaks to this question.

Read 6 tweets

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

3 Nov

It's hard to get a good grip on New Jersey, imo. Not only are we missing result by method, but there's not much consistency among the higher turnout, presumably nearly-done counties. There just aren't many data points in a state w 12 counties or whatever, esp if they're noisy

The Hunterdon County result, for instance, looks totally healthy for Democrats and it looks done. I figured this wasn't going to be close when I saw it.
Cape May County, otoh, looks nearly done and fantastic for the GOP.
So it's hard to balance that

Looking elsewhere, there's a lot more 'bad' for Democrats than healthy. But it's hard to know whether that's because of biases in which kind of methods are reporting until we're at 100% counted

Read 4 tweets

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