Good news: The supply-chain crunch appears to have already peaked in the U.S.
Evidence keeps piling up to suggest that the U.S. is slowly but surely making progress in easing freight congestion and supply shortages bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
🚢Average ocean freight rates for a 40-ft container have declined for 8 weeks
🚢Spot pricing for the Shanghai-Los Angeles trade route is down about 19% from its September peak
🚢There are fewer containers lingering for more than 9 days at the Port of L.A. bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
The threat of fines for excessive dwell times at the port seems to have led to a meaningful improvement.
The ports of L.A. and Long Beach have delayed the penalties (which start at $100 a day and rise in $100 increments) until at least later in November bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
An influx of additional sweeper ships used to pick up empty containers is helping clear dock space for new cargo.
Local officials are temporarily increasing the number of containers that can be vertically stacked in nearby warehouses and container yards bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
In the industrial world, supply disruptions weighed on short-term sales, but the damage to profit margins ended up being fairly limited in the third quarter.
Most executives sound very optimistic about future demand in 2022 and beyond bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
U.S. manufacturing output rose in October to the highest level since March 2019.
The factory production rebound was driven in part by an 11% jump in motor vehicles and parts. This suggests the automotive industry is navigating the supply crunch bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
A peak in supply-chain stress doesn’t mean it’s over.
Shipping costs are still very high on a historical basis: The global benchmark rate is up more than 200% from the same period last year bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
“There’s been some acceleration of the ports moving containers out and some early signs of dampening on ocean freight rates in the spot market,” said @biesrob1, CEO of @CHRobinson.
“Whether or not that’s a trend is yet to be determined” bloom.bg/3oIZ4l3
@biesrob1@CHRobinson For the supply-chain crunch to get better, it first needed to stop getting worse.
$700 billion is about nine times current US customs revenue, and 2.4% of the most recent estimate of US GDP.
Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s
Trump often cites President McKinley’s high tariffs as an inspiration, but during McKinley’s presidency (1897 to 1901) tariffs generated less than half the share of GDP that $700 billion would amount to now
We *just* learned that #SVB’s downfall was announcing it was raising equity without having buyers lined up, says @matt_levine.
So why would Credit Suisse’s biggest shareholder announce they would “absolutely not” put more money into the embattled bank? trib.al/aS9oy3I
After Saudi National Bank ruled out providing more assistance, #CreditSuisse closed down 24% at 1.697 Swiss francs per share, its lowest closing price on record trib.al/nnFD2F8