Lots to unpack from today’s Military Times interview - Ukrainian Military Intelligence assessment on Russian forces and what they might do. They predict a winter-spring offensive (/thread) 
Here is the link (/2) : militarytimes.com/flashpoints/20…
Ukrainian Intel predicts an offensive January and February. Some of the items on this map I am assuming are future assessment — for example multiple airborne forces in Belarus (/3)
The graphic depicts a 4-prong attack, and these are the General locations were Russian forces are deploying to, from what I can see.A slow build over the course of months which is what I and others colleagues have assumed also. (/4)
as I’ve mentioned a few times this week in conversations that they are assessing not a repeat of “little green men” of 2014, but air strikes, navy involvement, airborne as well. They are predicting a full multi-domain operation. (/5)
Side by side, this assessment is worse than one we wrote at RAND several years ago, here’s just one graphic from that, ours focused just on two oblasts…(/6)
Ukraine is putting this assessment out for a few reasons. For me, if it’s anything like this on the ground, that would be very serious. (/8)
(And By worse I mean, what is presented is more troubling)
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