Lots to unpack from today’s Military Times interview - Ukrainian Military Intelligence assessment on Russian forces and what they might do. They predict a winter-spring offensive (/thread)
Here is the link (/2) : militarytimes.com/flashpoints/20…
Ukrainian Intel predicts an offensive January and February. Some of the items on this map I am assuming are future assessment — for example multiple airborne forces in Belarus (/3)
The graphic depicts a 4-prong attack, and these are the General locations were Russian forces are deploying to, from what I can see.A slow build over the course of months which is what I and others colleagues have assumed also. (/4)
as I’ve mentioned a few times this week in conversations that they are assessing not a repeat of “little green men” of 2014, but air strikes, navy involvement, airborne as well. They are predicting a full multi-domain operation. (/5)
Side by side, this assessment is worse than one we wrote at RAND several years ago, here’s just one graphic from that, ours focused just on two oblasts…(/6)
(Here’s that link by the way— good rail statistics for you) (/7)

Ukraine is putting this assessment out for a few reasons. For me, if it’s anything like this on the ground, that would be very serious. (/8)
(And By worse I mean, what is presented is more troubling)

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More from @MassDara

5 Jul
I compared Russia’s new National Security Strategy with the 2015 NSS and other recent RS strategies.The new NSS incorporates familiar concepts. It reads as very closed off: more survivalist in tone and all refs to cooperation with the West were deleted. Observations below. /
There’s been some reorganization throughout, and IMO not to the betterment of the document. What’s new in the 2021 NSS: ✅ 2/
✅ New ‘bottom line up front’ paragraph that is perhaps a mission statement of sorts: Russia is a sovereign state that has resisted external pressure, economic resilience in the face of sanctions 3/
Read 19 tweets
8 Jan 20
I’m not an Iran expert. But I am a military analyst. When I see the impact points of Iran’s strike on Asad air base, I don’t see purely symbolic strikes designed to avoid casualties, as some have speculated. The strikes appear to target the base’s military capability.
The missiles struck equipment and storage buildings on the infrastructure (populated) side of the base. The impacts *are not* scattershot across empty fields or airstrips on the southern side of the base (image from December)
There aren’t public U.S. confirmations about the number of Iranian missiles launched that failed to arrive on target. Without knowing where other missiles would have landed, it’s hard to assess the full targeting strategy.
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