Thread by @bopinion

🛍️ The bargain bonanza that is Black Friday has begun. Only there are fewer special offers this year, and those that are being advertised aren’t quite so eye-catching.

You can blame the global supply chain meltdown for the lack of doorbusters trib.al/HI6L0GB

💰 Many Americans are still flush with Covid lockdown savings, while wage gains are also boosting household spending power.

Combine that with missing out on holiday festivities in 2020, and that’s made for buoyant consumer conditions trib.al/z1we2hl

Given the higher costs that retailers are facing — from spiraling freight rates to air-shipping goods from Asia — they had little choice but to cut down on promotions this year in order to protect profit margins trib.al/z1we2hl

Some retailers started their offers in October to capitalize on early consumer demand and having enough supply.

That may have contributed to U.S. retail sales rising by the most in seven months in October trib.al/z1we2hl

Across the U.S., deals are similar to or lower than in 2020, when they had already been reined in due to Covid.

There are some categories where special offers are heating up — such as beauty and toys — but some items are already in short supply trib.al/z1we2hl

In the e-commerce market, Adobe found that discounts were weaker in:

📱 Electronics
🏈 Sporting goods
🔌 Electrical appliances

They were similar in TVs and furniture, while prices were rising in DIY products trib.al/z1we2hl

Signs suggest supply-chain problems have peaked, but the scars of stock shortages — along with rising inflation — mean consumers now expect to pay more for what they want.

This creates an opportunity for retailers to reset their profitability trib.al/z1we2hl

The pent-up demand that characterized 2021 is likely to fade.

🧳 The proportion of Americans who plan to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday has more than doubled compared with 2020 and is ahead of 2019 levels trib.al/z1we2hl

Inflation is eating into household spending power.

If Americans are having to pay more for the things they need, such as food, there will be less left over for the things they want.

U.S. consumer sentiment has dropped to a 10-year low trib.al/z1we2hl

❓ Why are discounts so scarce now? Items currently in shops were ordered earlier in the year before the true extent of consumer strength emerged.

Companies shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the current strength in spending trib.al/z1we2hl

This year’s extraordinary combination of soaring demand and constrained supply has given stores a golden ticket to end the vicious retail cycle of over-ordering and then deep-discounting to clear unwanted stock trib.al/z1we2hl