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Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
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21 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Trads: I won't live in the pod

Also trads: I want to go back to the 1950s, when a good middle-class house looked like this
And remember the total fertility rate in the 50s was 4, so this house would have to fit a family of 6 😫
Floor space per person has more than tripled since the 1950s.

yesiamcheap.com/cost-of-living…
And here is the home price to median income ratio. It's more expensive now than in the 50s (for a much much bigger house), but the 50s were not cheap.

longtermtrends.net/home-price-med…

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More from @Noahpinion

Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
22 Nov
If you want more trains in America, you won't do it by making driving less attractive. People will revolt and you'll lose to pro-car people at the ballot box. Instead, figure out how to make Americans more enthusiastic about riding trains.
Some of this is psychological. Since Americans aren't used to riding trains, you have to figure out smart ways of getting them to think about changing their lifestyle. This is basically a form of marketing. (For me, this was living in Japan, but obviously that doesn't scale up.)
Some of it is about development. You have to allow dense development near train stations, so more people A) live near train stations, and B) can take the train to shop and eat out.
Read 8 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
20 Nov
At a house party for A.I. people, and saved from having to do a go-around introduction by the timely arrival of a hang of thieves stealing catalytic converters from the cars outside
Ultimate San Francisco tweet
Friends asked a thief "What are you doing?" He replied "I'm robbing."

The police walked over and chatted with him, but didn't arrest him, and he left.
Read 5 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
20 Nov
China is facing four big economic shocks now:
1. A real estate crash
2. Covid
3. Supply chain woes
4. Xi's industrial crackdowns

Fear of war could be a fifth...
With all of those shocks, it looks like China's era of rapid, easy catch-up growth might simply be over now.

Remember that China has less than 30% of U.S. per capita GDP (PPP), and only about 40% of South Korea or Japan.

If China's catch-up stalls out before it's even half as rich as its developed neighbors, that's a fairly poor showing for its economic model.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c…
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
17 Nov
1/OK, let's talk about inflation.

Telling people not to worry about inflation is a bad move right now.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/people-have-…
2/The October data seems to have convinced everyone that inflation is real, that it isn't just going to vanish in a few months, etc.

Sorry, Team Transitory, we're on to the "what do we do about it" phase.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/inflation-is…
3/The Right is screeching their heads off about inflation, of course, since their incentive is to seize on anything bad about the economy.

thefederalist.com/2021/11/15/not…
Read 17 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
17 Nov
Out of these three countries, which do you think represents the best model for America right now?
And second poll: Out of these three countries, which do you think represents the best model for America right now?
Third poll: Out of these three countries, which do you think represents the best model for America right now?
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
10 Nov
Protip for pundits: If someone with a smaller following than you calls you out with a bad-faith reading of something you wrote, don't respond. They're doing it for attention, trying to get you to give them free eyeballs by arguing with them.
Corollary: If someone with a much *bigger* following than you calls you out with a bad-faith reading, don't be afraid. They've just given you a freebie. Explain repeatedly why their bad-faith reading is incorrect, and you'll get free eyeballs. Remember to save screenshots.
Note that the first tip works whether or not you want more attention at all, and the second tip works even if you only want positive, healthy attention for saying good and reasonable things.
Read 4 tweets

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