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Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
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17 Nov, 17 tweets, 6 min read
1/OK, let's talk about inflation.

Telling people not to worry about inflation is a bad move right now.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/people-have-…
2/The October data seems to have convinced everyone that inflation is real, that it isn't just going to vanish in a few months, etc.

Sorry, Team Transitory, we're on to the "what do we do about it" phase.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/inflation-is…
3/The Right is screeching their heads off about inflation, of course, since their incentive is to seize on anything bad about the economy.

thefederalist.com/2021/11/15/not…
4/Dems and progressives should counter this with our own positive narrative about how good the job market is.

cnbc.com/2021/11/05/str…
5/But I see some folks arguing that inflation is no biggie, that it's a media propaganda hoax, and that anyone who cares about it has basically been brainwashed.

This is a very bad rhetorical attitude to take.

6/People don't hate inflation because they're brainwashed by the media.

They hate inflation because their paychecks can't keep up.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-do-peopl…
7/The great Robert Shiller did a survey in 1990 about why people dislike inflation, and found that...it's because their wages can't keep up.

nber.org/system/files/c…
8/This meme by @EGirlMonetarism really gets it right.
9/Real (inflation-adjusted) wages fell in the early 70s and the late 70s, and they're falling now too.
10/Real disposable personal income is falling now too.
11/Now, a caveat here. A different data source, the Current Population Survey, disagrees with the BLS numbers and shows real wages rising in the last quarter.
12/But whichever data source you trust, the fact is that this is an extraordinary era of worker power, and yet the historic gains workers are making are being either mostly or entirely eaten up by price rises!
13/This is incredibly frustrating for workers, and we downplay that frustration at our peril.

piie.com/blogs/realtime…
14/Read the room, folks. Economic confidence is falling now, not just among Republicans but among Dems and Independents too.

Inflation is the only possible reason. The job market is strong. It's just inflation.
15/And please learn the lessons of history.

Inflation screwed the Dems in the 70s, and I promise you, if we let it go on for 5 more years, it will screw us in the 2020s too.
16/ And for God's sake, the Biden administration sure as HELL not try to blame inflation on hoarders and speculators.

That's Hugo Chavez type bullshit. Nothing good lies down that path. Stop it.

17/Inflation will sink this administration, and the Dems, unless we take it seriously.

So let's not dismiss it as a media hoax or the nefarious actions of greedy hoarders.

People have a right to be upset.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/people-have-…

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More from @Noahpinion

Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
17 Nov
Out of these three countries, which do you think represents the best model for America right now?
And second poll: Out of these three countries, which do you think represents the best model for America right now?
Third poll: Out of these three countries, which do you think represents the best model for America right now?
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
10 Nov
Protip for pundits: If someone with a smaller following than you calls you out with a bad-faith reading of something you wrote, don't respond. They're doing it for attention, trying to get you to give them free eyeballs by arguing with them.
Corollary: If someone with a much *bigger* following than you calls you out with a bad-faith reading, don't be afraid. They've just given you a freebie. Explain repeatedly why their bad-faith reading is incorrect, and you'll get free eyeballs. Remember to save screenshots.
Note that the first tip works whether or not you want more attention at all, and the second tip works even if you only want positive, healthy attention for saying good and reasonable things.
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
10 Nov
A 0.6% m/m core inflation rate is an annualized 7.4% rate. Remember that core inflation is what the Fed targets, and its target is 2% (though it targets PCE inflation and this is CPI, which can differ slightly).
Also, median inflation, another measure of broad-based inflation, is running similarly high.

This inflation is making it very hard for people to get real wage increases.

Read 5 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
9 Nov
Remember: You're an unappreciated genius surrounded by idiots who think they're unappreciated geniuses surrounded by idiots
80% of the value in any organization is created by 20% of the people, and if you're reading this, you're definitely in the 20%
Also, your political opinions are backed by data, history, and just plain common sense. People with contrary opinions are all arguing in bad faith.
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
8 Nov
Interesting thread, but I'm not sure this sort of rhetoric will get anyone's notice. Elected leaders are expected to say this stuff, so people tune them out.
The Twitter activists and media figures who people see -- rightly or wrongly -- as the true face of the progressive movement are not going to praise Columbus or say America is a great nation. So I don't think it really matters what Biden and Harris say here.
Biden already did this with "defund the police". He said, very clearly, from day 1, that he didn't want to defund the police.

But Republicans still run on the message that Democrats don't just want to defund the police, but did, in fact, already do it!

abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden…
Read 11 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
5 Nov
I see survey researchers are preparing for our mixed-race future! 🤪
Imagine a future where this chart becomes standardized and every Hispanic or mixed-race person has to shout out their skin color number at the beginning of business meetings (so that blind people will know how to treat them).

I swear if this happens I will become Chris Rufo.
This country is just getting absolutely ridiculous

Read 4 tweets

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