Henry Gao Profile picture
Nov 22, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
New crackdown on online streamers?
CCTV News reported today two cases of tax evasion by two Chinese online streamers, who were respectively fined 65 & 27 mil RMB.

The cases are interesting for 3 reasons:
1. They were caught by the tax authorities using "tax big data analysis" by the Hangzhou tax bureau. I guess that's one reason why big data is getting so important in China.
2. Their alleged wrongdoings were converting what they earned in the streaming business from personal income to the business income of the sole proprietorship. I'm not a tax expert, but if I remember correctly this is a widespread practice among China's celebrities and
is more of a grey area rather than outright illegal.

Interestingly, when in 2000 China decided to suspend corporate income tax on sole proprietorships and partnerships, and only levy individual income tax on their investors’ business income, it was hailed as a big benefit
for entrepreneurs to encourage individual investment, fair taxation, improve the income tax system, and create favorable conditions for the development of the enterprises.

But that policy was made at a time when the corporate tax rate was higher than the individual tax rate.
When the corporate tax rate was reduced in 2008, high-income individuals discovered that they can save a lot by shifting the income to sole proprietorships, as the higher brackets of personal income taxes are much higher than the corporate tax rate.
3. The two were fined 100% of the tax they evaded, even though they cooperated with the tax authorities and paid part of the tax before the investigation was concluded.
So what's the takeaway from all these?
1. Expect more tax crackdowns coming in China as the state tries to fill its coffers amidst an economic downturn;
2. Confucius is proven right once again: "In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes".

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More from @henrysgao

Oct 16
A close reading of MOFCOM’s press conference today revealed more than the ministry likely intended to admit.

In response to a @Reuters question, the spokesperson stated:

“After the Madrid Talks, despite China’s repeated dissuasion, in just over 20 days the US intensively Image
introduced 20 repressive measures against China, seriously damaging China’s interests and undermining the atmosphere of the talks. In particular, at the end of September, the US issued a ‘penetrating rule’ for the export control entity list, effectively expanding it to thousands
of Chinese enterprises. At the same time, despite China’s sincere consultations, the US insisted on launching the Section 301 investigation on port fees related to China Shipbuilding on October 14, causing serious harm to China’s interests. The negative impact is extremely bad.”
Read 6 tweets
Oct 14
I’m tired of people claiming that China and US reached an agreement in Madrid last month to refrain from introducing new restrictions.

That is simply not true — even by China’s own account.

1. People’s Daily editorial published the day after the talks quoted He Lifeng saying
“China HOPES US and China would go hand in hand, cancel the relevant restrictions on China as soon as possible, jointly safeguard the hard-won results of the talks with practical actions, and continue to create a good atmosphere for stability of economic and trade relations.” Image
2. The next day, another People’s Daily editorial made it even clearer:
“It must be pointed out that after a series of economic and trade consultations, the wrong practice of the US to unilaterally impose economic and trade restrictions on China has not stopped. The US has Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 11
Why the sudden wave of retaliations and escalations from Beijing?

The answer lies in the eight editorials published in the People’s Daily over the past few days.

Written under the pen name 钟才文, these pieces are widely understood to represent the views of the Office of the Image
Central Financial and Economic Commission, headed by He Lifeng — China’s economic tsar.

The Oct 4 editorial proclaimed that China has become “the main contributor to global economic growth and an anchor of stability,” attributing this to the “certainty” of China’s development Image
strategy - a pointed contrast to the “back-and-forth” policies of “some Western countries.” It went on to mock US inconsistencies: “In the past, they championed globalization; now they turn inward. In the past, they vowed to fight climate change; now they withdraw from Paris Agr” Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 15
Xi’s Feb speech to private firms is finally published—and it confirms everything I predicted before the meeting:
Private firms must fully align with China’s strategic competition vs the US. Image
Xi says private firms’ problems stem from external shocks (tech revolutions, trade restrictions) or internal missteps (over-diversification).

To Xi, the Party is not the problem, it is the solution.

Thus, firms must “unify their thoughts and actions with the Central Committee.” Image
Xi was even more explicit on measures to boost private firms: they should lead national science & tech projects, access major research infrastructure, and join state-led initiatives.

Exactly what I predicted 3 years ago in my @CIGI essay: private firms must be integrated into Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 8
What’s the biggest threat to China’s economy in the 2nd half of 2025?

It’s not the trade war, nor any new government policy. It’s a judicial interpretation from the Supreme Court.

On July 31, the Court issued Interpretation on Applicable Law in Trying Labour Dispute Cases (II). Image
Article 19 states:

“If the employer agrees with the employee, or the employee promises the employer, that there is no need to pay social security premiums, the people’s court shall find the agreement or promise invalid. If the employer fails to pay social security premiums in Image
accordance with the law, and the employee requests the termination of the labour contract in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 38 of the Labour Contract Law and demands economic compensation, the people’s court shall support the claim.”
Read 8 tweets
Aug 3
强烈推荐大家收听@guoguang_wu老师的这期访谈。吴老师不仅深入分析了中共之后中国的现实可能性,还提出了多项具体可行的民主转型策略。以下是我对访谈要点的总结:

1. 里应外合,如齐伐燕

“里应外合”有两重含义。一方面,反对力量应善用国际社会的影响力。当下内需疲弱、对外贸依赖日益加深的背景下
国际支持对于中国的民主转型更是至关重要。而近期以@milesyu10 教授为代表的美国保守派也开始认真探讨中共之后中国的可能性,则代表美国政经精英也开始关心这个议题,甚至为此做准备。我在此大胆预测:如果“汤武之事”在未来数年再度上演,那么包括马斯克在内的西方精英或明或暗表达支持也不足为奇。
@milesyu10 另一方面,反对派也应主动寻求与体制内开明派的接触与合作,以力借力,在不牺牲原则的前提下推动体制内改变。

中国历史上不乏里应外合夺取政权的例子,最近的是49年鼎革之变,远的则是当年被孟子视为正义之战的齐伐燕。当年的燕国内乱是由于燕王乱放权,禅位于相国。结合吴老师最近在 @bumingbaipod
Read 6 tweets

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