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Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
@APHClarkson
Nov 22, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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London pundits come to the terms with the fact that Boris Johnson does not actually know what he is doing
This what you want from a Chihuahua, not a British Prime Minister Image
Or maybe there is no technique at all Image
This is a pretty accurate description of Johnsonism and explains why Boris Johnson is in the condition he currently finds himself in Image
No, next question? Image
Just like Daddy Pig Image
ISometimes there is no there there even if a lot of people expend a lot effort claiming there is a there that can be found
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

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More from @APHClarkson

Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Mar 22
If the US is unable to provide aid to Ukraine and does not seem a reliable partner for other European states its concerns will be ignored by Ukraine and other European states
Quincyite Restrainers and MAGA isolationists are ultimate cakeists in assuming the US can withdraw commitments from allies while still keeping influence the US developed through massive involvement in key global regions.

Instead DC will moan on the sidelines as others ignore it.
The Ukrainian leadership is made up of a lot of experienced people who know how DC will react to certain actions yet they're starting to do them anyway.

The French leadership knows how sketchy Biden is over talk of troops on the ground anywhere yet Paris is shifting anyway.
Read 6 tweets
Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Feb 17
Panels at the Munich Security Conference invariably spend a lot of time wringing hands over the so-called Global South while spending as little time as possible paying attention to the details of relentless conflicts and regional power rivalries in the Global South
A bit of time at MSC focused on wars in Sudan, Abiy's moves, state cohesion in the Sahel or growing risks of state vs state war between DRC and Rwanda rather than vague strategic platitudes might show EU and US policymakers actually care about events in the "Global South"
When Russian PMCs, Romanian mercs, Chinese brokers and Ukrainian special forces are showing up in wars across Africa alongside French, UAE, Turkish, Italian and Portuguese usual suspects then maybe it's time MSC noticed how much events in different global regions are intertwined
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
A potential trap in focusing entirely on narratives of settler colonialism in assessing imperial power structures and migration that can go back centuries is how quickly they can get absorbed into Far Right demands for expulsion of minorities in Europe, India or Africa
The assumption that narratives of settler colonialism will only target West Europeans or North Americans looks ropey if one considers how various nativist movements in Europe, Africa and India can also end up targeting the migration and political legacies of Muslim empires.
Taken one step further, within the framework of Far Right worldviews that see migrants as part of a wider conspiracy to displace "native" populations in Europe, what may begin as a Left wing decolonial agenda can quickly get hijacked to be used against Muslim and other migrants.
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Nov 4, 2023
The problem for those in the West pitching ceasefire and talks with Putin over Ukraine has always been one of trust. His speech on 24 February 2022 indicated that he believes he is pursuing a divine historical mission in ways that mean his word in any compromise cannot be trusted
At best a ceasefire puts Ukraine in a permanent no war/no peace situation rather than stable outcomes.

Even in those terms, there is specific territory Ukraine would still need to gain now for it to sustain such a long term India/Pakistan dynamic punctuated by surges in fighting
It may be that in 2024 the Ukraine/Russia dynamic ends up in a no war/no peace scenario. But to maintain a sustainable equilibrium between both sides that avoids future escalation Ukraine will still need to regain the heart of its pre-2022 economic infrastructure along the river.
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Sep 21, 2023
One of the ironies of Ukraine's accession into the EU is going to be that once in EUCO, EP and the Commission the interests of Ukrainian governments will on the general direction of EU integration align more with Paris than with Warsaw.
It is Poland that in its suspicion of Berlin and Paris keeps pushing for a deeper US role in European security while Ukraine having dealt with Trump's lunacies and Biden's reluctance to provide key systems would be much happier to be part of a Gaullist EU with strategic autonomy
If through EU accession and European integration the Ukrainian state can sit within a security and defence structure much better able to protect itself without US assistance then every Ukrainian politician will be relieved to never have to go to DC with a begging bowl again
Read 6 tweets
Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Aug 12, 2023
Just as Navalny is right to point to failures to reform Russian society in the 1990s, it is worth considering what happened during the Soviet Ukrainian Shelest era in the 1960s and then under Kravchuk and Kuchma in the late 1980s and early 1990s to make change in Ukraine possible
Shelest believed in Ukraine as equal partner to Russia in a shared Soviet empire and got purged by Brezhnev in 1971 for believing Kyiv was at the same level of Moscow.

Kravchuk was a clever opportunist in the late 1980s and Kuchma ridiculously corrupt in the 1990s.
But for all the frantic manoeuvring between the West and Moscow, disastrous corruption and ludicrously incompetent governance something happened from Shelest to Kravchuk to Kuchma to make change possible in Ukraine that did not happen from Brezhnev to Yeltsin to Putin in Russia.
Read 5 tweets

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