London pundits come to the terms with the fact that Boris Johnson does not actually know what he is doing
This what you want from a Chihuahua, not a British Prime Minister Image
Or maybe there is no technique at all Image
This is a pretty accurate description of Johnsonism and explains why Boris Johnson is in the condition he currently finds himself in Image
No, next question? Image
Just like Daddy Pig Image
ISometimes there is no there there even if a lot of people expend a lot effort claiming there is a there that can be found…

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More from @APHClarkson

25 Nov
When assessing COVID19 policy in Germany, data journos need to take the federal structure of government and pretty substantial differences in outcome between Länder into account. Power is distributed to regions in ways that shape statistical outcomes.
What has shocked me isn't so much the dilemmas the German federal and Land governments and faced. At various points each European state has faced impossible dilemmas generated by COVID. 1/2
What shocked me was the panicky incoherence of the messaging in response to the COVID dilemmas in the last three months of Land and Bund governments, at a time at which public compliance and institutional responses require the public to have confidence in state authority 2/2
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
It's good news, but I'd wait for the exact legal text of the next round of citizenship reform under 🔴🟡🟢 coalition before assessing its exact impact on the status of millions of immigrants in Germany
Would be nice if completing school or university education in Germany would count as besondere Integrationsleistung that accelerates access to German citizenship. German economy needs skilled workers and professionals desperately
With Turkey in severe economic difficulty (UAE is cash is like putting a bandaid on a shotgun wound) there are a lot of skilled workers and professionals heading from Turkey to Germany already. A clearer citizenship path will accelerate that brain drain
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
COVID Inzidenz is at 900 in Sachsen, yet the UK is still declared a Hochrisikogebiet at 439 by the Robert-Koch Institute, which indicates how absurd German travel controls are now

The RKI border regime hinges on a belief that Germany always does better than the rest of the world
The plague island meme is silly. UK government fouled up a lot in 2020, which UK society is still working through now. But at current trajectory, outcomes across Europe end up pretty much the same, with some countries getting calls right and doing better earlier and some later
Italy is also a useful case study in how as the crisis drags on a European country whose state messed up at the start has over time developed mechanisms to manage the crisis as a long term challenge.

Germany did well at the start, but did not treat this as a long term problem
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
A key contradiction in much analysis of the Putin regime's actions is the dual claim that Putin does not want war but also does not want to be seen to be bluffing. If the former matters more than the latter then Kyiv rides this out and Putin looks like all he can do is bluff
Seven years after Maidan is falling back into old Russia watcher paradigms of focusing entirely on the Russian state's goals and agency while not adequately taking Ukrainian and East European agency and goals into account.
The core Russian strategic mistake is the belief that US can easily remote control what Ukraine and other East European states are doing. So you keep getting Russian leaders approaching the US to get some grand deal only to get blindsided and furious by how the US can't deliver
Read 6 tweets
18 Nov
German media and political discourse coming to terms with the possibility that South European states can sometimes do things better than Germany might prove a transformative cultural moment in itself
And yes of course seasonal effects mean cases will go up in Spain and Italy. But vaccination programmes have been more efficient so I doubt the political class in either will tip into the panic that is proving so counter-productive to finding effective strategies in Germany
It's not the concrete problem of the rising cases that I find shocking in Germany. COVID19 generates tough dilemmas to manage. It's the headless panic of the German political class in response and its confusion around the basics of a vaccination programme that is off the scale
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
There is a point after years of crisis where state institutions and populations become ground down by fatigue and structural attrition. It might be unrealistic to expect the German state and public to have the discipline and capacity in November 2021 that they had in March 2020
Watching Germany now is a bit like watching debates in the UK in November 2020 before the vaccination programme helped to restore trust in the NHS and other state healthcare institutions
And this really isn't a UK vs EU thing. A lot of EU states such as Italy, France or Spain have done OK with vaccination programmes and reopening. This is specifically a debate that needs to be had about German state resilience
Read 4 tweets

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