On the evening of November 19 2021, RCH8194, C-17A 08-8194, lifted from Fort Campbell. It was 6:40PM (2340Z). It probably didn't make much difference to anyone in the area. These are common flights. Common enough for flight trackers who watch for this stuff to sometimes miss.
1/
Within a couple hours, it should have become a little more obvious.
Another C-17A, 00-0184 #AE08BE, was lifting from Fort Campbell around 7PM local, 0000Z, with RCH5E1, C-17A 04-4138 #AE1448, descending for Campbell's Army Airfield.
Something was beginning to move.
2/
Not much further away to the east at roughly the same time, RCH889, C-17A 06-6157 #AE145B, was lifting out of Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, NC.
At this moment, all aircraft involved had used in part or in whole Mode S to at least partially obfuscate their departures.
3/
Meanwhile, from across the Atlantic, C-17s were arriving where these other flights would land. Bangor, ME is a hub of sorts for deployments as is Dover, DE.
Each flight, regardless of direction, was using Mode S.
4/
Another key hub of movement was out of Fort Stewart/Hunter AAF, GA.
C-17A flights out of here included:
RCH124, 04-4128 #AE123A
RCH1186, 01-0186 #AE10B5
RCH9035 01-0194 #AE10BD
5/
At least 1 was involved from Fort Benning, GA by 0600Z.
It's now 6 hours into outbound flights & virtually every one of the 15 C-17As on the eastern seaboard (most using Mode S) appear to be involved in something akin to the Jan 2020 surge.
6/
Alright, so what's this all got to do with the price of gas?
Well, for starters, the flight patterns being similar to the January 2020 surge (see link) should raise some interest because it almost certainly signals troop movements.
In fact, thanks to @IntelWalrus finding the ACARS messages for the flights inbound to Djibouti via @thebaldgeek and his website, we can show @ADSBexchange positions of November 20-23rd for all flights involved (left to right, top to bottom). A single mass rush, and RTB.
Considering how quiet things have gotten this last little bit, I want to take the time to make a few points.
- 1st round seems to be over, at least for the Caracas area.
- Given how many airbases and military targets there are, this is frankly somewhat of a light 1st round.
1/
(cont.)
- Whatever was going on with the helicopters...
(A) Given social media these days, if something went terribly wrong, we likely would see it pretty quick
(B) Where did they come from??
(cont)
- In terms of assets we've seen build up.
(A) Rather light in terms of airstrikes, either from bases in the region, bombers from elsewhere or from the flattops.
(B) We are NOT maintaining air presence over Venezuelan skies. No sounds of fighters overhead.
3/
Fantastic film. Perhaps the best of the modern era in terms of nuclear war fiction. Invoking the plot lines of a number of many prior films without actually drawing them to their full conclusions.
That said, I felt there were several major problems.
First, the whodunnit.
The scenario is made possible by a certain amount of ambiguity as to whether the DPRK, PLA or Russia launched the initial missile, made possible by a failure of detection by an early warning satellite in a region in which all 3 nations share interests.
SAR imagery confirms destroyed airframes at the locations in part 3.
Adjusting suspected one Tu-22M location (52.901642, 103.575327) to 52.900303, 103.574194.
Adding third suspected Tu-22M: 52.895627, 103.582776