On the evening of November 19 2021, RCH8194, C-17A 08-8194, lifted from Fort Campbell. It was 6:40PM (2340Z). It probably didn't make much difference to anyone in the area. These are common flights. Common enough for flight trackers who watch for this stuff to sometimes miss.
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Within a couple hours, it should have become a little more obvious.
Another C-17A, 00-0184 #AE08BE, was lifting from Fort Campbell around 7PM local, 0000Z, with RCH5E1, C-17A 04-4138 #AE1448, descending for Campbell's Army Airfield.
Something was beginning to move.
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Not much further away to the east at roughly the same time, RCH889, C-17A 06-6157 #AE145B, was lifting out of Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, NC.
At this moment, all aircraft involved had used in part or in whole Mode S to at least partially obfuscate their departures.
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Meanwhile, from across the Atlantic, C-17s were arriving where these other flights would land. Bangor, ME is a hub of sorts for deployments as is Dover, DE.
Each flight, regardless of direction, was using Mode S.
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Another key hub of movement was out of Fort Stewart/Hunter AAF, GA.
C-17A flights out of here included:
RCH124, 04-4128 #AE123A
RCH1186, 01-0186 #AE10B5
RCH9035 01-0194 #AE10BD
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At least 1 was involved from Fort Benning, GA by 0600Z.
It's now 6 hours into outbound flights & virtually every one of the 15 C-17As on the eastern seaboard (most using Mode S) appear to be involved in something akin to the Jan 2020 surge.
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Alright, so what's this all got to do with the price of gas?
Well, for starters, the flight patterns being similar to the January 2020 surge (see link) should raise some interest because it almost certainly signals troop movements.
In fact, thanks to @IntelWalrus finding the ACARS messages for the flights inbound to Djibouti via @thebaldgeek and his website, we can show @ADSBexchange positions of November 20-23rd for all flights involved (left to right, top to bottom). A single mass rush, and RTB.
The remaining bunker/warehouses still operable are surrounded by twisted ruins with doubtful electricity, infrastructure and rail (likely crippled post-attack).
Will Russia rebuild? Likely. They've shown stubborness to. But we are talking years to return to prior condition.
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The arsenal was one of 13 state arsenals meant for rennovation to meet "the world's highest standards," per then Deputy Defense Minister General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov. Toropets Northeast was supposed to be hardened against even a nuclear attack.
🧵What I remember most about learning of the attack was how everything that'd been a slow grueling grind of expediting info & processing for several weeks came to an abrupt halt. Those trying to get out of the city had to go elsewhere.
I had felt that with so many people and US troops in one place that it was risky; something could happen. One last ISIS-K or Taliban punch. Anything.
At least 182 people - Afghans, Americans, Brits - died. God knows how were maimed.
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I'd been helping with a project that had a hard deadline; the attack moved it up. I went back to work, probably out of futility, in case there was an opening. I think many still stuck in Kabul ended up trying for the borders, by road. By foot. The DMs were frantic. Desperate.
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The fire has reached and engulfed the Maligne Lodge on the SW side of town. Word that the Petro-Canada is a loss as well.
Pictured shared by @tiredinAB which appears to be geolocated to a boat dock at Fairmont Jasper Park Lodge showing incredibly high flames toward the south of town.