Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Nov 23, 2021 11 tweets 8 min read Read on X
On the evening of November 19 2021, RCH8194, C-17A 08-8194, lifted from Fort Campbell. It was 6:40PM (2340Z). It probably didn't make much difference to anyone in the area. These are common flights. Common enough for flight trackers who watch for this stuff to sometimes miss.

1/
Within a couple hours, it should have become a little more obvious.

Another C-17A, 00-0184 #AE08BE, was lifting from Fort Campbell around 7PM local, 0000Z, with RCH5E1, C-17A 04-4138 #AE1448, descending for Campbell's Army Airfield.

Something was beginning to move.

2/
Not much further away to the east at roughly the same time, RCH889, C-17A 06-6157 #AE145B, was lifting out of Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, NC.

At this moment, all aircraft involved had used in part or in whole Mode S to at least partially obfuscate their departures.

3/
Meanwhile, from across the Atlantic, C-17s were arriving where these other flights would land. Bangor, ME is a hub of sorts for deployments as is Dover, DE.

Each flight, regardless of direction, was using Mode S.

4/
Another key hub of movement was out of Fort Stewart/Hunter AAF, GA.

C-17A flights out of here included:
RCH124, 04-4128 #AE123A
RCH1186, 01-0186 #AE10B5
RCH9035 01-0194 #AE10BD

5/
At least 1 was involved from Fort Benning, GA by 0600Z.

RCH9035 is C-17A 010194 #AE10BD

It's now 6 hours into outbound flights & virtually every one of the 15 C-17As on the eastern seaboard (most using Mode S) appear to be involved in something akin to the Jan 2020 surge.

6/
Alright, so what's this all got to do with the price of gas?

Well, for starters, the flight patterns being similar to the January 2020 surge (see link) should raise some interest because it almost certainly signals troop movements.

7/
theaviationist.com/2020/01/02/onl…
And the destination (likely) is...
Djibouti.

8/
In fact, thanks to @IntelWalrus finding the ACARS messages for the flights inbound to Djibouti via @thebaldgeek and his website, we can show @ADSBexchange positions of November 20-23rd for all flights involved (left to right, top to bottom). A single mass rush, and RTB.

9/
@IntelWalrus @thebaldgeek @ADSBexchange With unrest in Ethiopia, it's no wonder the US is staging troops. CNN reports deployment of 1/75th Rangers.

This is certainly corroborated by the type & base of departure for flights listed in this thread, but perhaps even more. (h/t @IntelWalrus)

10/
cnn.com/2021/11/22/pol…
Based on C-17A transport stops, here is my best guess:

Regimental HQ from Benning.
1st battalion definitely via Stewart/Hunter.
Possible 160th SOAR from Campbell, or part of an MP battalion.

The Fort Campbell element is what intrigues me, but I need more info.

11/

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More from @vcdgf555

Jan 15
Iran-related thread.

Starting at 20:02 UTC, a pair of USAF C-17As set to depart from Al-Udeid AB, Qatar (OTBH) were instructed to "return to the chalks" and that their mission to Chania, Greece (LGSA) had been scrubbed. They were instructed then to wait for more info.

1/ Image
The change in plans coincides within minutes of remarks made by President Trump that the killings and executions inside Iran had been reported to have stopped, based on sources within Iran itself.

2/
This all occurred shortly after six USAF KC-135 tankers from Al-Udeid were seen departing in quick succession. These were believed to be evacuation flights, destination unknown.

The last KC-135 departed at ~1927 UTC or 35 minutes before the C-17As were told to stand down.

3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 3
Considering how quiet things have gotten this last little bit, I want to take the time to make a few points.

- 1st round seems to be over, at least for the Caracas area.
- Given how many airbases and military targets there are, this is frankly somewhat of a light 1st round.

1/
(cont.)

- Whatever was going on with the helicopters...
(A) Given social media these days, if something went terribly wrong, we likely would see it pretty quick
(B) Where did they come from??
(cont)
- In terms of assets we've seen build up.
(A) Rather light in terms of airstrikes, either from bases in the region, bombers from elsewhere or from the flattops.
(B) We are NOT maintaining air presence over Venezuelan skies. No sounds of fighters overhead.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Oct 26, 2025
Watched House of Dynamite.

My opinion in my replies. Image
Fantastic film. Perhaps the best of the modern era in terms of nuclear war fiction. Invoking the plot lines of a number of many prior films without actually drawing them to their full conclusions.

That said, I felt there were several major problems.
First, the whodunnit.

The scenario is made possible by a certain amount of ambiguity as to whether the DPRK, PLA or Russia launched the initial missile, made possible by a failure of detection by an early warning satellite in a region in which all 3 nations share interests.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 13, 2025
NYT initially reported, then retracted, that the Quds Force Commander, Ismail Qaani, was killed.

Qaani is the successor to Qasem Soleimani.

2/
IAF appears to be entering Iranian airspace with impunity, even attacking during daylight.

3/

Read 21 tweets

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