Really exciting event starting in 2 minutes! Is taking back control helping the UK economy?
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https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1463073586671853571
How is new immigration system and preference for high-skilled labour working?
@M_Sumption: EU migration has been pretty low, only few thousand coming in on work visas - may be Brexit but also pandemic etc, & may not remain like this forever
@M_Sumption: EU migration has been pretty low, only few thousand coming in on work visas - may be Brexit but also pandemic etc, & may not remain like this forever
.@M_Sumption: re. shortages, really difficult to disentangle causes & not clear how long these problems will last
Will depend how easy will be for employers/economy to adjust through automation/shifts in industry size
Will depend how easy will be for employers/economy to adjust through automation/shifts in industry size
.@Gilesyb: too high a labour supply in low skilled area could supress UK economic productivity
thus, short-term inconveniences necessary for rising productivity trends
thus, short-term inconveniences necessary for rising productivity trends
.@Gilesyb: Yet, the wage rises that we are seeing through shortages will be restricted to very specific sectors, while the rest of us - consumers - will suffer as a result
Seema Farazi @EYnews
Positive changes in immigration system:
- Removal of resident labour market testing
- Lowering of skills level for sponsored visa
- Flexibility to skip between immigration categories
- Flexibility for employers on cooling off period
- Expedited processing
Positive changes in immigration system:
- Removal of resident labour market testing
- Lowering of skills level for sponsored visa
- Flexibility to skip between immigration categories
- Flexibility for employers on cooling off period
- Expedited processing
Seema Farazi:
End of free movement mainly increases costs, although system has faired fairly well: - Applications processed in good time
- Government is willing to listen and course correct
- There is across-the board stakeholder engagement on pressure points etc
End of free movement mainly increases costs, although system has faired fairly well: - Applications processed in good time
- Government is willing to listen and course correct
- There is across-the board stakeholder engagement on pressure points etc
Seema Farazi:
Two key pressures points we will see:
- On SMEs (depends on communications, knowledge, cost, administrative burden)
- High-volume system users (depends on cost)
Two key pressures points we will see:
- On SMEs (depends on communications, knowledge, cost, administrative burden)
- High-volume system users (depends on cost)
Paul Wilson @fsb_policy:
38% of small businesses say access to appropriately skilled staff - most for 6 years
NI contribution increase adding more pressure
38% of small businesses say access to appropriately skilled staff - most for 6 years
NI contribution increase adding more pressure
Paul Wilson:
Most small businesses aren't turning to immigration system to fill shortages b/c:
- costs (small businesses w/o HR depts - costs 3 grand to hire w/ skilled visa)
- many jobs not eligible (41% of jobs in small businesses considered low skilled, don't qualify)
Most small businesses aren't turning to immigration system to fill shortages b/c:
- costs (small businesses w/o HR depts - costs 3 grand to hire w/ skilled visa)
- many jobs not eligible (41% of jobs in small businesses considered low skilled, don't qualify)
.@M_Sumption:
huge international diversity in systems:
Sweden = v low costs, low barriers
Australia = much more restrictive
Hard to delineate macroeconomic impacts
UK has insufficient data to evaluate different immigration routes, compared to Canada, Australia, New Zealand
huge international diversity in systems:
Sweden = v low costs, low barriers
Australia = much more restrictive
Hard to delineate macroeconomic impacts
UK has insufficient data to evaluate different immigration routes, compared to Canada, Australia, New Zealand
Seema Farazi - @EYnews:
Metrics for evaluation:
- Accessibility
- Transparency
- Lead times to get people into place
- Ease of process
- Costs
- Existence of resident labour market test
UK does well on all other than cost - this is the key pressure point
Metrics for evaluation:
- Accessibility
- Transparency
- Lead times to get people into place
- Ease of process
- Costs
- Existence of resident labour market test
UK does well on all other than cost - this is the key pressure point
Seema Farazi - @EYnews:
UK needs to be more positive about its immigration narrative and the impact of immigration on the UK economy
To attract talent, UK needs to be seen to be attractive for talent
UK needs to be more positive about its immigration narrative and the impact of immigration on the UK economy
To attract talent, UK needs to be seen to be attractive for talent
Paul Wilson @fsb_policy:
What we think of as skilled is old fashioned (focus on technical skills and higher education).
Government has rightly made tweaks on the immigration system to adapt here, but comes back to overall
What we think of as skilled is old fashioned (focus on technical skills and higher education).
Government has rightly made tweaks on the immigration system to adapt here, but comes back to overall
Seema Farazi - @EYnews:
Govt stakeholder engagement involves a lot of learning and course correction, e.g.:
- Unsponsored kicked off spring next year
- Scale up routes
- Work on policy
- Sponsorship roadmaps
Govt stakeholder engagement involves a lot of learning and course correction, e.g.:
- Unsponsored kicked off spring next year
- Scale up routes
- Work on policy
- Sponsorship roadmaps
.@M_Sumption:
Govt approach to skilled vs non-skilled is driven by ONS classification, looking at duration of training for certain job
Focus shouldn't necessarily be about changing definition of skill, but using a different word than skilled that better reflects social value
Govt approach to skilled vs non-skilled is driven by ONS classification, looking at duration of training for certain job
Focus shouldn't necessarily be about changing definition of skill, but using a different word than skilled that better reflects social value
.@Gilesyb
What is the implication of not bringing in low skilled labour from abroad? Leaves low skilled jobs to be filled by British citizens
Seems contradictory with trying to get British citizens into high skilled jobs?
What is the implication of not bringing in low skilled labour from abroad? Leaves low skilled jobs to be filled by British citizens
Seems contradictory with trying to get British citizens into high skilled jobs?
Seema Farazi - @EYnews
Good adjustment option: early white paper suggested UK-EU reciprocal youth mobility scheme
Could support gaps while domestic skills were being built up (didn't actually end up happening)
Good option to get temporary labour into economy to address gaps
Good adjustment option: early white paper suggested UK-EU reciprocal youth mobility scheme
Could support gaps while domestic skills were being built up (didn't actually end up happening)
Good option to get temporary labour into economy to address gaps
Paul Wilson @fsb_policy:
For small businesses in tourism and hospitality (hit badly by pandemic), youth mobility schemes would be pragmatic way to address labour supplies
For small businesses in tourism and hospitality (hit badly by pandemic), youth mobility schemes would be pragmatic way to address labour supplies
.@M_Sumption:
If you reduce supply of EU workers, different adjustments available:
1) Get Brits into jobs
but also:
2) Fewer of these types of jobs through automation or shrinking in sector e.g. reverse big expansion in labour-intensive horticultural production since 2004
If you reduce supply of EU workers, different adjustments available:
1) Get Brits into jobs
but also:
2) Fewer of these types of jobs through automation or shrinking in sector e.g. reverse big expansion in labour-intensive horticultural production since 2004
.@M_Sumption:
Migrants doing low wage work become part of society - is this part of the vision?
Youth mobility schemes hedges positions by getting people to come but not allowing them to be part of society by limiting to 2-3 years
Migrants doing low wage work become part of society - is this part of the vision?
Youth mobility schemes hedges positions by getting people to come but not allowing them to be part of society by limiting to 2-3 years
.@M_Sumption:
There are no comparable countries with exceptionally low level of migration into low wage jobs, because people come in through family routes or as refugees
Australia is closest on restrictions at the low-skill end
There are no comparable countries with exceptionally low level of migration into low wage jobs, because people come in through family routes or as refugees
Australia is closest on restrictions at the low-skill end
.@Gilesyb:
In response to Turkey farming shortages, we are simply buying Turkeys from abroad, possibly even using same workers.
What has been gained here unless you see big negative externality of migrants living and working in the UK?
In response to Turkey farming shortages, we are simply buying Turkeys from abroad, possibly even using same workers.
What has been gained here unless you see big negative externality of migrants living and working in the UK?
.@M_Sumption:
Views on migration often come down to non-economic views & social perceptions on migration
Views on migration often come down to non-economic views & social perceptions on migration
Questions from the audience begin!
First Q: Given immigration in now key economic variable, should home office still run it?
@M_Sumption: Concern about disruption of such a big move. Yet, would in practice get different outcome if not in home office (probably more liberal)
First Q: Given immigration in now key economic variable, should home office still run it?
@M_Sumption: Concern about disruption of such a big move. Yet, would in practice get different outcome if not in home office (probably more liberal)
Paul Wilson @fsb_policy
Need to work towards departments having shared measures of success
Home office should work with BEIS etc in collaborative way to think about what business needs
Need to work towards departments having shared measures of success
Home office should work with BEIS etc in collaborative way to think about what business needs
.@Gilesyb
Should stay w/ home office due to big security dimensions
Hard to collaborate b/w offices (e.g under coalition proposals for security bonds paid by immigrants, home office saw as positive increase in difficulty to enter UK, business disagreed = discussions broke down
Should stay w/ home office due to big security dimensions
Hard to collaborate b/w offices (e.g under coalition proposals for security bonds paid by immigrants, home office saw as positive increase in difficulty to enter UK, business disagreed = discussions broke down
Seema Farazi - @EYnews
Although can't see the system coming away from home office soon, wider government doing a lot on policy:
- Innovation strategy
- Positive policies on immigration in spring and autumn budget
- Office for talent
Although can't see the system coming away from home office soon, wider government doing a lot on policy:
- Innovation strategy
- Positive policies on immigration in spring and autumn budget
- Office for talent
Q: Ending of mutual recognition of qualifications adding complexities. How much is this an issue?
Seema Farazi: Is an issue - one of many problems = additional hurdles outside immigration system
Mobility agreements with switzerland are an example of work that can be done
Seema Farazi: Is an issue - one of many problems = additional hurdles outside immigration system
Mobility agreements with switzerland are an example of work that can be done
.@M_Sumption
Really difficult to get mutual recognition agreements - EU managed at they rammed it through, worked smoothly but not always popular
Trying with US, Switzerland, etc = hugely difficult negotiations mitigating diversity across many professional bodies
Really difficult to get mutual recognition agreements - EU managed at they rammed it through, worked smoothly but not always popular
Trying with US, Switzerland, etc = hugely difficult negotiations mitigating diversity across many professional bodies
Q: Apart from political intransigence, why not introduce Canada-style regional immigration system?
.@M_Sumption: there are pros & cons but generally regions not so different on economic indicators re. immigration & so hard to target
q is more a matter of principle on devolution
.@M_Sumption: there are pros & cons but generally regions not so different on economic indicators re. immigration & so hard to target
q is more a matter of principle on devolution
Q: will govt need to impose training incentivse offer for sectors with shortages:
Paul Wilson: FSB happy to see commitments to skills bootcamps & want support for small businesses to engage in training programmes
covid-specific incentives annoucned by chancellor shd be extended
Paul Wilson: FSB happy to see commitments to skills bootcamps & want support for small businesses to engage in training programmes
covid-specific incentives annoucned by chancellor shd be extended
.@Gilesyb :
Hundred of training schemes over years and low-take up of training among corporate world for last 10-15 years.
What makes a new one different?
Hundred of training schemes over years and low-take up of training among corporate world for last 10-15 years.
What makes a new one different?
Q: should govt policy be more supportive of UK unis to attract workers from abroad?
Seema Farazi: graduate route introduced last year is step towards that - enhances attractiveness
However, also need that positive narrative around UK efforts to attract talent
Seema Farazi: graduate route introduced last year is step towards that - enhances attractiveness
However, also need that positive narrative around UK efforts to attract talent
Q: Large number of old people withdrawing due to pandemic - what impact?
.@Gilesyb: cannot judge too early. Many factors:
- Prompt of home work
- More dangerous to work due to covid
- Wealth effect (govt income support, asset price boom)
Unsure how long effects will last
.@Gilesyb: cannot judge too early. Many factors:
- Prompt of home work
- More dangerous to work due to covid
- Wealth effect (govt income support, asset price boom)
Unsure how long effects will last
.@M_Sumption:
No fixed need for labour - hard to determine overall number of migrants needed. More important include:
- Wages and productivity of people entering
- Contribution to public finances
- Spill over effects onto economy
No fixed need for labour - hard to determine overall number of migrants needed. More important include:
- Wages and productivity of people entering
- Contribution to public finances
- Spill over effects onto economy
Q: do housing costs prevent significant labour mobility?
Paul Wilson: people become anchored in certain area for many non-economic reasons - such factors extend the post-pandemic period of adjustment
Immigration system remains just one option for temporary relief
Paul Wilson: people become anchored in certain area for many non-economic reasons - such factors extend the post-pandemic period of adjustment
Immigration system remains just one option for temporary relief
Q: will we ever know if markets self-correct through migration if govt always pursue short-term mitigation?
@Gilesyb: takes a very long time
@M_Sumption: get some idea but not clear picture - but govt HGV/butcher visas are very short-term = govt sticking to self-correct plan
@Gilesyb: takes a very long time
@M_Sumption: get some idea but not clear picture - but govt HGV/butcher visas are very short-term = govt sticking to self-correct plan
And that's all! Really interesting insights across the board on adjustments, policies, governance & the narrative around immigration!
Thanks a lot to our great panellists:
Seema Farazi
@Gilesyb
@M_Sumption
Paul Wilson
& to chair @gemmatetlow
#IfGBrexit
Thanks a lot to our great panellists:
Seema Farazi
@Gilesyb
@M_Sumption
Paul Wilson
& to chair @gemmatetlow
#IfGBrexit
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