I was very skeptical of US intel sources predicting new RU invasion in Ukraine. However, the rhetoric of Russia's top security brass in the last days is worrysome. SVR's chief ominously speaks of "pre-2008 Georgia" situation, and Patrushev warns of "Afghan scenario for Ukraine".
Plus, the Kremlin today says "Russia has no plans to attack anyone", so for anyone who grew up under communism, this sounds like a direct promise to attack. ria.ru/20211123/rossi…
Plus, Surkov comes with with a faux-philosophical verbal diarrhea - the crux of which is "Russia must expand terrestrially to survive", plus FSB arrest "terrorist who was planning to attack schools in Kazan under guidance from Ukrainian citizen". Lots of hints dropped.

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More from @christogrozev

17 Sep
Putin's spokesman applauds @Apple and @Google's deleting of @navalny-linked apps.
Can't wait for @apple and @google's reactions when the Kremlin bans *them* in Russia (because that's coming).
An example of globalization playing in the hands of authoritarianism. The Netflixes and Apples and Amazons become hostages to revenue streams from non-free markets and then the broken concept of "legal sovereignty" closes the circuit.
Read 6 tweets
9 Sep
Ukrainian president's party MP says tomorrow there will be a closed parliamentary session on "the Wagner topic" followed by a press conference at 15:30 local time where "everything that can be legally said about the Wagnerites will be disclosed".
Well it is kind of a historic day in Ukraine. The ruling party finally admitted there was a Ukrainian intel sting operation aimed at capturing Russian mercenaries outside RU territory. However, they say, the plans did not include landing a plane in Kyiv but arrests in Turkey.
Plus, they say, there was information that Russian security services were aware of the sting operation.
Well, this is a start. Leaves lots of unanswered questions, but it's a start. google.com/amp/s/nv.ua/am…
Read 4 tweets
21 Aug
In an exclusive interview, the brother-in-law of Vadim Krasikov (the person accused of the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin's Kleiner Tiergarten two years ago), tells us he positively recognized the person held in Berlin as his in-law.
Alexander V. from Kharkiv already testified in Berlin's court last month. However, there he stopped short of identifying conclusively the detained assassin as his in-law, Vadim Krasikov. Shortly after his court appearance, he contacted us to explain he didn't speak the full truth
Sadly, his email had gone into the proverbial spam folder, until we discovered it just days ago. We rushed to interview him in Kyiv: with journalists from @bellingcat, @derspiegel and @the_ins_ru questioning Alexander for hours.
Read 14 tweets
21 Aug
Now a more serious thread on the new "Novichok sanctions". First, I disagree with many of the comments that "sanctions against low-level staff are useless". On the contrary, I think individual name-and-shame sanctions are important to deter future recruiting efforts by FSB/GRU.
It's one thing when media publish names & photos of suspected poisoners; a new level of stigma when governments sanction them (and validate media's findings). These guys were promised protection, cover and anonymity by their employers. Now they're on public blacklists forever.
...the next job interviews for GRU and FSB's poison departments won't go smooth... thus much fewer Kudryavtsevs, Osipovs, and Alexandrovs to pick from...and those who apply will be the dumbest ones anyway.
Read 6 tweets
20 Aug
Hey UK Treasury, where's the hyperlink? :) ImageImageImageImage
By popular demand, as many of you asked "But what about [talkative overqualified laundry man Kudryavtsev??".. Here he is, in today's sanctions by the US Treasury. Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Aug
"Spanish shame" is the first thing that comes to mind while watching the chief of SVR's 80-minute interview with Kremlin's wannabe Rush Limbaugh. For starters, intelligence chiefs *don't* do 80-minute interviews, period.
There's literally nothing that an intelligence chief knows that s/he can say publicly. That's why they never do it. That means literally everything that Naryshkin rambled on was pure propaganda, with zero truth or news value.
I take that back - there is news value in his appearance. That the Kremlin patient would ask his intel chief to make a fool of himself says a lot about his degree of insecurity before next month's elections.
Read 7 tweets

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