Sell-Side Equity Research gets its fair share of criticism from investors, but it’s also a good training ground where you can learn about the investment process and become a better investor.
Here are 10 things I learned during my time on the sell-side
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1. Writing
Putting your thoughts into paper forces you to think more clearly and organize your arguments and conclusions. There’s no better way to crystallize your thinking than by writing down what you think, and doing it on a weekly basis creates a very powerful lasting habit.
2. Primary Sources
Don’t read news articles, Bloomberg or third party sources as your 1st stop for company news or information
Always go to the primary source (company filings/press releases), become familiar with them, learn how to read these documents and digest them yourself
3. Financial Modeling
Modeling may lead to false precision, but in practice it’s a great way to learn how a company makes money, how to value it and what the future may look like under various assumptions
First they should be complex & over time become simpler (via @PrefShares)
4. Stock pitching
Pitching a stock helps you craft your views in an organized form, by explaining them succinctly to someone else, who in turn can ask questions and test your knowledge. It also forces you to compress the thesis into the most important drivers of returns.
5. Research Process
The most useful content from the SS are initiations, company deep dives and industry notes. They’re also the most research intensive and what most closely resembles what an investor should do. It helps mold your process to learn a new company/industry from 0
6. Talking to clients
Your clients are PMs and Analysts, many smarter and more experienced than you. Need to build a track record, credibility and be able to handle push back. Having a good discussion with someone smart who is on the opposing side of you is a great skill to have
7. Management
One of the best perks is having access to senior management. Speaking to management teams helps you differentiate b/t the good and bad ones and ask the right questions. What do they say vs. what do they do? How consistent are they? Are they upfront and transparent?
8. Earnings
The craziest and busiest time is always earnings season, and it’s important to develop a process. Know which companies report in which format and the most important KPIs to look for; keep a balance between the quarterly performance variability and the long term view
9. Following companies you don’t own
Every great investor needs to be capable of studying a company in-depth without falling trap to the sunk-cost fallacy that may lead you to invest b/c of time spent.
Be capable of studying a company for a long time without having to own it.
10. Circle of Competence
You spend your entire workday covering 20 companies in 1-2 sectors and over time you start to develop a circle of competence. It probably takes ~3 years, but importantly you learn how to learn, and can replicate it again over time to learn a new sector
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-MAU 381mm (+19% y/y, high end of guide)
-Premium 172mm (+19% y/y, midpoint of guide)
-Rev +26% (fx adj)
-Ad-Supported revs up 75% (13% of revs)
-Gross margin 26.7% (up 200bps y/y,above guide)
-ARPU up y/y from price increases
-FCF of 99mm EUR
More details to follow.
This is a good print. Let’s dive in.
MAUs DD growth across all regions, back to trend (after 2Q of misses)
Strength in RoW, specifically India, Philippines, Indonesia. Also called South Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan.
Just in case These are huge population countries.
Premium subs growth strong and in-line with trend. Helped by various partnerships with telcos, hardware providers and financial institutions.
Churn down q/q and up y/y (historic low, tough comp). Still expects churn to be down for the full year
Is it “cheap”? Yes, by many measures. It’s an incredible business, one of the best in the world.
But I disagree with most adjustments people make (cash, core/ex blah earnings, WA, growth capex)
I don’t value it that way. Why?
1/n 🧵
As a shareholder you either want cash flows back quickly and in size, or be very patient and get a big payday down the line in return.
Even though you can slice the numbers to make $FB look really cheap, you’re not seeing many of those earnings returned to you
Let’s take a look
It trades at a ~3% (30x) ‘22 FCF yield — cash flow, minus guided capex, adj for SBC; which is roughly equal to buyback minus SBC. Call it ~$30b (75-31-12)
As a shareholder that’s the only cash you’re seeing TODAY. You can’t buy it for that reason, you have to expect a big payday
$FB revenues up a cool 35% y/y
Total expenses up 39%
EBIT 36% vs 37% y/y
New reporting segments
FoA: Family of Apps (fb/ig/wa)
FRL: Facebook Reality Labs (ar/vr software, hardware, content)
Getting serious about the Metaverse.
Let’s try to put all these tech buybacks in context by netting out SBC please.
$FB
$50B buyback announced
$10B SBC
$40B adjusted buyback (~4% of s/o)
How is it that $FB plans to spend $30+B in Capex in 2022 from a ~$140B revenue base when $GOOG spent $22B last year on $183B of revenues? I’d think FB was lower given they’re not a hyperscale cloud provider