NEW: To understand how the pandemic is evolving, it's crucial to know how death rates from COVID differ by vaccination status.
In this post we explain why rates are the key metric to use for this, and we show the latest data for the US, England, and Chile: ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-b…
You may sometimes see headlines like “Half of those who died from the virus were vaccinated”.
But it would be very wrong to draw conclusions about the vaccines based on this headline, because we also need to know how many people in this population were vaccinated & unvaccinated.
In the post, we walk you through an example to illustrate how to think about these statistics in a hypothetical case.
The same logic also applies in the pandemic. Comparisons of absolute numbers, as some headlines do, ignore the fact that one group is much larger than the other.
🇺🇸 The United States has fully vaccinated 58% of its population, mostly with the mRNA vaccines produced by Pfizer and Moderna.
This chart presents the COVID-19 death rate among unvaccinated people and among fully-vaccinated people (per 100,000 people in each group).
🏴 England has fully vaccinated 68% of its population, mostly with the vaccines produced by AstraZeneca and Pfizer.
This chart presents the COVID-19 death rate among unvaccinated people and among fully-vaccinated people.
(In our post, you can also explore the data by age group.)
🇨🇱 Chile has fully vaccinated 83% of its population, mostly with the Sinovac vaccine.
This chart presents the COVID-19 death rate among people who are unvaccinated (or not fully vaccinated), among fully-vaccinated people, and among those who additionally received a booster dose.
These charts are based on real-world data reported by governments.
All show large differences between the death rates of vaccinated people and fully-vaccinated people.
They also show the extra protection provided by boosters in Chile, and differences *between* vaccines in the US.
Finally, at the end of our post, we've started compiling a list of links to similar datasets for many other countries. If you are aware of an official source of disaggregated data that is not listed here, please send us feedback here on Twitter, or on our website.
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Denmark is getting a lot of attention at the moment, with many people debating if the data shown on @OurWorldInData should be worrying or not.
While I won't comment on this precise question, it's important to remember that all we show on our charts is the *official* data.
(1/6)
The issue at stake is the distinction between people dying "with" COVID vs "from" COVID.
This distinction wasn't a huge problem in 2020–2021. But with case counts exploding with Omicron, these "incidental" cases have come to represent a higher share of patients in some countries.
The Danish national health authorities have recently reported that the proportion of patients "with" COVID has significantly increased, both in hospitalizations and deaths.
The problem is that they only make this distinction clear in hard-to-find articles and PDF reports.
Technical note: we've removed the weekly hospital admissions shown for Portugal – it seems that the source publishing it (@ECDC_EU) is making some error during their processing of the data, resulting in a time series that is much too low.
(And we'll also notify the ECDC)
FYI, as far as I can see, all the rest of the Portuguese data (cases, hospitalized patients, ICU patients, deaths) is fine. It's just the hospital *admissions* that the ECDC is getting very wrong (possibly they're reporting daily admissions instead of weekly – but not sure yet).
Here's what the "Weekly new hospital admissions per 100k" look like right now in the ECDC file (first chart).
Considering that Portugal's mortality peak in February 2021 was massively higher than these other countries (second chart), this really doesn't add up.
NEW: We now have daily-updated charts for the UK, Israel, and Spain, to compare key COVID-19 metrics to previous waves.
In this new post, I explain why they're so useful in monitoring the protection that vaccination provides against severe outcomes. ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-…
🇬🇧 To this day, the UK has administered:
- At least 1 vaccine dose to 76% of its population
- All doses of the original protocol to 70% of its population
- 52 booster doses per 100 people
(In the post you can explore this data for England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland)
🇮🇱 To this day, Israel has administered:
- At least 1 vaccine dose to 71% of its population
- All doses of the original protocol to 64% of its population
- 47 booster doses per 100 people
(1) The massive number of infections in European countries is "real".
Yes, more people got tested for Christmas, and there have been some backlog issues in many countries.
But the 7-day positive rates have been rising rapidly, and nothing indicates that cases are "over-counted".
(2) It's also true that the number of deaths remains very low right now.
Today, the global CFR has actually gone below 1% for the first time ever.
It's an imperfect metric, but it still means that the millions of cases we've seen haven't led to a *proportional* number of deaths.
(3) Another way to summarize it, is that December 28 has both:
- The highest number of cases ever recorded
- The lowest number of deaths recorded since October 2020
So it looks like good vaccination rates + omicron may be leading us towards a different situation.
The Dutch vaccination data is one of the worst in Europe.
After almost a full year, there still aren't any files to download, and the coverage time series only include weekly figures.
The booster campaign started in November, but there still isn't any time series at all on that.
South African cases in the JHU data show a big spike on Nov 23. This is likely to be a simple artifact or an error, rather than the number of cases detected that day. For now, we've removed that data point from the 7-day average on our charts. (Issue: github.com/CSSEGISandData…)
In case that's not obvious, this doesn't mean the conversation & concerns around B.1.1.529 aren't relevant. It simply means that the cases specifically reported by JHU on November 23 shouldn't be linked to that conversation – because we don't know yet if those cases are "real".
There we go: it's a backlog of antigen tests added to the cumulative total. Importantly, "The estimated number of new cases for 23 Nov 2021 is 868"